Ugly day for two big retail names, $SOFI & $HOOD.
Amazing day for the AI Infra plays that continue to crush earnings like $BE $STX $NXP.
I think the broader question here, at this stage of the rally from the lows, is do you think there is an opportunity cost at being in a loser and transitioning it for a winner.
The loser, if the company is doing well, usually gets the dip buy because the price is a better bargain.
This market is rewarding the winner, even if the earnings multiple is massive (like Intel) or there barely are any earnings (like Bloom) as long as the trajectory continues to show that they will keep winning.
So, would you sell all your $SOFI to buy a $SNDK or $MU here?
I’m not sure many would, but so far fintech and software have continued to dip even with good earnings as the market simply has rotated to companies that keep putting up strong numbers.
Just not sure many have the stomach to buy a chart up 3-4x YTD and sell their bags in fundamentally strong companies just to be in the current winning trade.
Amazing day for the AI Infra plays that continue to crush earnings like $BE $STX $NXP.
I think the broader question here, at this stage of the rally from the lows, is do you think there is an opportunity cost at being in a loser and transitioning it for a winner.
The loser, if the company is doing well, usually gets the dip buy because the price is a better bargain.
This market is rewarding the winner, even if the earnings multiple is massive (like Intel) or there barely are any earnings (like Bloom) as long as the trajectory continues to show that they will keep winning.
So, would you sell all your $SOFI to buy a $SNDK or $MU here?
I’m not sure many would, but so far fintech and software have continued to dip even with good earnings as the market simply has rotated to companies that keep putting up strong numbers.
Just not sure many have the stomach to buy a chart up 3-4x YTD and sell their bags in fundamentally strong companies just to be in the current winning trade.
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true
Halal Investor: How can you as a man pay 35x fwd PE for $STX but call $MU at 5x fwd PE expensive while they're part of the same cycle?
Halal Investor: How can you as a man pay 35x fwd PE for $STX but call $MU at 5x fwd PE expensive while they're part of the same cycle?
The best performing stocks in the S&P500 this year.
The three main themes:
1. Energy
2. Chemicals and fertilizers
3. Tech hardware
1. $SNDK - SanDisk +168.04%🟢
2. $LITE - Lumentum Holdings +91.94%🟢
3. $LYB - LyondellBasell +84.43%🟢
4. $DOW - Dow Inc. +77.73%🟢
5. $APA - APA Corporation +73.17%🟢
6. $MRNA - Moderna +71.94%🟢
7. $CF - CF Industries +68.19%🟢
8. $CIEN - Ciena Corporation +66.00%🟢
9. $TPL - Texas Pacific Land +65.04%🟢
10. $OXY - Occidental Petroleum +57.77%🟢
11. $WDC - Western Digital +57.49%🟢
12. $GLW - Corning Inc. +55.72%🟢
13. $VRT - Vertiv Holdings +54.00%🟢
14. $TER - Teradyne +53.33%🟢
15. $VLO - Valero Energy +51.38%🟢
16. $MPC - Marathon Petroleum +51.06%🟢
17. $FIX - Comfort Systems USA +47.71%🟢
18. $BG - Bunge Global +46.27%🟢
19. $GNRC - Generac +43.20%🟢
20. $STX - Seagate Technology +42.34%🟢
21. $COP - ConocoPhillips +41.42%🟢
22. $XOM - ExxonMobil +40.78%🟢
23. $PSX - Phillips 66 +40.19%🟢
24. $EOG - EOG Resources +39.31%🟢
25. $KEYS - Keysight Technologies +38.97%🟢
Where is the money flowing next?
The three main themes:
1. Energy
2. Chemicals and fertilizers
3. Tech hardware
1. $SNDK - SanDisk +168.04%🟢
2. $LITE - Lumentum Holdings +91.94%🟢
3. $LYB - LyondellBasell +84.43%🟢
4. $DOW - Dow Inc. +77.73%🟢
5. $APA - APA Corporation +73.17%🟢
6. $MRNA - Moderna +71.94%🟢
7. $CF - CF Industries +68.19%🟢
8. $CIEN - Ciena Corporation +66.00%🟢
9. $TPL - Texas Pacific Land +65.04%🟢
10. $OXY - Occidental Petroleum +57.77%🟢
11. $WDC - Western Digital +57.49%🟢
12. $GLW - Corning Inc. +55.72%🟢
13. $VRT - Vertiv Holdings +54.00%🟢
14. $TER - Teradyne +53.33%🟢
15. $VLO - Valero Energy +51.38%🟢
16. $MPC - Marathon Petroleum +51.06%🟢
17. $FIX - Comfort Systems USA +47.71%🟢
18. $BG - Bunge Global +46.27%🟢
19. $GNRC - Generac +43.20%🟢
20. $STX - Seagate Technology +42.34%🟢
21. $COP - ConocoPhillips +41.42%🟢
22. $XOM - ExxonMobil +40.78%🟢
23. $PSX - Phillips 66 +40.19%🟢
24. $EOG - EOG Resources +39.31%🟢
25. $KEYS - Keysight Technologies +38.97%🟢
Where is the money flowing next?
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SK 海力士已向美國證券交易委員會秘密提交申請，並計劃於 2026 年底前在美國上市 ADR。
https://x.com/Tickerwire/status/2036721419632120118?s=20
Ticker Wire: $MU $SNDK $WDC $STX | SK Hynix confidentially filed with the SEC to list U.S. ADRs by late 2026.
The move aims to raise up to $14B to fund HBM production and AI infrastructure in Korea and the U.S., while narrowing its valuation gap with global chip rivals.
https://x.com/Tickerwire/status/2036721419632120118?s=20
Ticker Wire: $MU $SNDK $WDC $STX | SK Hynix confidentially filed with the SEC to list U.S. ADRs by late 2026.
The move aims to raise up to $14B to fund HBM production and AI infrastructure in Korea and the U.S., while narrowing its valuation gap with global chip rivals.
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今天海力士还在调整，韩国股市连着两天熔断。为啥跌这么猛？从时间上线来看，1、上周五显现端倪，上周四英伟达财报后首日股价出现了sell the news，上周五整个半导体板块都有回调。当时在聊EWY的时也聊到市场对存储情绪打满后要回调的迹象。周末也看到消息外国基金在2月27号净卖出6.8万亿韩元的韩股指数。
2、然后再是伊朗局势的直接影响，韩国原油几乎全部依赖进口（中东占比极高），油价飙升直接带来输入型通胀 、同时贸易条件恶化，也会导致制造业/出口成本大增。
以前也是每次中东局势升级，韩股就首当其冲成为“最脆弱的高Beta市场”，外资大规模撤离（单日净卖出几万亿韩元），直接推高波动。
3、当然这也是跟韩股的特征高度相关。
韩股属于成分股高度集中（半导体、金融、汽车等少数板块占主导） 、散户比例高 韩国人赌性也强情绪化交易明显 、对外资依赖度高（外资占比不小）等因素都导致了对全球地缘冲突、流动性变化极敏感。
而且韩国股市机制，指数跌5%就sidecar（临时停牌/程序化交易暂停），跌8%就全面暂停的门槛相对低，机制设计上就更容易被触发。美股是跌7%触达熔断。
当然也是上周五有聊到wey开始回调其实给了机会等待回调到位，个人认为调整的根源还是只情绪打满后的调整叠加了上周末地缘冲突带来的潜在能源成本大幅走高的风险，带动半导体股进行估值消化，但并不是趋势的大拐点，
就像上周在聊英伟达财报时提到，英伟达自己承认“成本压力”来自 HBM。这意味着AI 需要的不只是更多的算力芯片，还需要更多、更贵、更难扩产的存储。在可见的26年，大科技们的资本开支还是要花出去，让我们暂时站在“还没见顶”这一边，但要跟紧密跟踪“预算/订单/指引”的证据。
现在存储行业的竞争核心已从产能规模转向尖端技术创新（如HBM4、HAMR）和稳定的高端供应链能力。而HBM集中度又非常高，基本上就是SK海力士和三星两强争锋、美光老三。所以只要没有看到大科技们资本开支开始见顶放缓的信号，算力产业链的关键环节在调整到位后还是有机会的。
接下来就看伊朗局势的走向，还是周一这里https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/2028343749873668349?s=20聊到的局势冲突“持续时间”最关键的还是霍尔木兹海峡的航运停摆的持续时间，而不是局势本身。看霍尔木兹海峡通航何时恢复正常，也是这波伊朗局势对金融市场影响的拐点时刻。
产业上需要去关注3月18号美光的财报，
以及后面大科技公司新一季度财报去看它们披露的AI收入、云增长、capex ROI情况。如果出现“AI已经开始赚钱”的明确信号（而非只烧钱），市场会从“质疑”转向“验证”。
麦通MSX: SK 海力士暴跌超 10%🤯
美股存储盘后集体跳水：
美光 $MU.M -3.67%
西部数据 $WDC.M -2.67%
闪迪 $SNDK.M -3.95%
希捷 $STX.M -2.24%
HBM 热度退潮？还是资金轮动？
这是黄金坑，还是调整开始？
2、然后再是伊朗局势的直接影响，韩国原油几乎全部依赖进口（中东占比极高），油价飙升直接带来输入型通胀 、同时贸易条件恶化，也会导致制造业/出口成本大增。
以前也是每次中东局势升级，韩股就首当其冲成为“最脆弱的高Beta市场”，外资大规模撤离（单日净卖出几万亿韩元），直接推高波动。
3、当然这也是跟韩股的特征高度相关。
韩股属于成分股高度集中（半导体、金融、汽车等少数板块占主导） 、散户比例高 韩国人赌性也强情绪化交易明显 、对外资依赖度高（外资占比不小）等因素都导致了对全球地缘冲突、流动性变化极敏感。
而且韩国股市机制，指数跌5%就sidecar（临时停牌/程序化交易暂停），跌8%就全面暂停的门槛相对低，机制设计上就更容易被触发。美股是跌7%触达熔断。
当然也是上周五有聊到wey开始回调其实给了机会等待回调到位，个人认为调整的根源还是只情绪打满后的调整叠加了上周末地缘冲突带来的潜在能源成本大幅走高的风险，带动半导体股进行估值消化，但并不是趋势的大拐点，
就像上周在聊英伟达财报时提到，英伟达自己承认“成本压力”来自 HBM。这意味着AI 需要的不只是更多的算力芯片，还需要更多、更贵、更难扩产的存储。在可见的26年，大科技们的资本开支还是要花出去，让我们暂时站在“还没见顶”这一边，但要跟紧密跟踪“预算/订单/指引”的证据。
现在存储行业的竞争核心已从产能规模转向尖端技术创新（如HBM4、HAMR）和稳定的高端供应链能力。而HBM集中度又非常高，基本上就是SK海力士和三星两强争锋、美光老三。所以只要没有看到大科技们资本开支开始见顶放缓的信号，算力产业链的关键环节在调整到位后还是有机会的。
接下来就看伊朗局势的走向，还是周一这里https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/2028343749873668349?s=20聊到的局势冲突“持续时间”最关键的还是霍尔木兹海峡的航运停摆的持续时间，而不是局势本身。看霍尔木兹海峡通航何时恢复正常，也是这波伊朗局势对金融市场影响的拐点时刻。
产业上需要去关注3月18号美光的财报，
以及后面大科技公司新一季度财报去看它们披露的AI收入、云增长、capex ROI情况。如果出现“AI已经开始赚钱”的明确信号（而非只烧钱），市场会从“质疑”转向“验证”。
麦通MSX: SK 海力士暴跌超 10%🤯
美股存储盘后集体跳水：
美光 $MU.M -3.67%
西部数据 $WDC.M -2.67%
闪迪 $SNDK.M -3.95%
希捷 $STX.M -2.24%
HBM 热度退潮？还是资金轮动？
这是黄金坑，还是调整开始？
Show More
