RT Investing visuals
A breakdown of the photonics value chain and best positioned business:

Layer 1: Materials & wafers
• $GLW
• $AXTI
• $IQE
• $AIXA
• $AMS

Layer 2: Core photonic devices
• $IPGP
• $COHR
• $LITE
• $LASR
• $SIVE

• Layer 3: Components & modules
• $AAOI
• $MTSI
• $FN
• $VIAV
• $LPTH

Layer 4: Systems & equipment
• $ASML
• $BESI
• $ASM
• $LPKF
• $MKS

Layer 5: Test, metrology & yield
• $CAMT
• $FORM
• $AEHR
• $ONTO
• $VIAV

Investing visuals: Photonics stocks are going parabolic:

• $LITE +1621%
• $AAOI +1434%
• $COHR +529%
• $CRDO +377%
• $VIAV +353%
• $FN +281%
• $MTSI +189%
• $MRVL +186%
• $IPGP +136%
• $POET +127%

最近光模块板块有点回调，不少小伙伴又开始担心了，纷纷建议我们来讲一讲。正好最近 ChatGPT Images 2出来，测试了一下用它做行研分析图，如👇图1，就是用Images 2出的光模块拆解，效果真的不错。

言归正传，我们依旧长期看好光模块领域的核心企业，AI 数据中心的算力战争，早已经从 GPU 打到光子芯片了。🧐

很多人还在死盯着英伟达，殊不知真正的卡脖子环节，早就转移到光互联和光子学这条产业链上了。

我们看看数据就知道了：AI 服务器的功耗从传统的 5-10kW 直接飙升到 100kW+，这些算力怪兽之间的数据传输，靠传统铜线？根本扛不住！光子芯片，才是 #AI 基础设施的下一个必争之地。

我们最近花了不少时间，把整条光子学产业链从头到尾梳理了一遍。从最上游的材料、设备，到中游的激光器、代工厂，再到下游的光模块、网络连接，每个环节的核心标的都扒拉了个遍。

这不是什么概念炒作，是实打实的硬科技赛道，每一层都有明确的投资机会。咱们掰开揉碎了讲，看看这条产业链到底藏着哪些机会：

🔹 第一层：材料与晶圆 - 半导体之基

这是产业链最顶端，主要提供磷化铟、砷化镓这些化合物半导体材料。说白了，没有这些材料，后面啥都别想搞。

• $AXTI (AXT Inc)
垂直整合的衬底供应商，在 InP（光通信激光器专用）市场占据重要地位。这哥们是从源头卡位的玩家。

• $WOLF (Wolfspeed)
虽然主攻碳化硅功率器件，但在氮化镓射频和光电衬底方面也有深厚积淀。多条腿走路。

• $COHR (Coherent)
全球领先的工程材料和光子器件厂商。不仅卖材料，还向下游垂直整合到激光器和模块，这是真正的巨头玩家。

🔹 第二层：制造设备 - 卡脖子环节

光子芯片的制造需要极高精度的光刻和外延生长设备，这可是真正的卡脖子环节。科林研发(LRCX)与应用材料(AMAT）、阿斯麦(ASML）并列，是全球前三大半导体设备商。

• $ASML(阿斯麦)
绝对的霸主，没啥好说的。随着硅光技术向更小纳米节点迈进，ASML 的光刻机是不可或缺的。垄断级别的存在。

• $AMAT (Applied Materials) & $LRCX (Lam Research)
在薄膜沉积、刻蚀等关键工艺上提供设备。2026 年的逻辑很清楚，随着 AI 驱动的晶圆厂扩产，这些设备厂的订单可见度极高。稳稳的。

🔹 第三层：激光器 - 光源引擎

激光器是把电信号转化为光信号的核心心脏，不可或缺的关键要素，妥妥的卖铲子王者。

• $LITE (Lumentum)
提供用于800G到1.6T高速数据传输的磷化铟激光器、EML激光器及光收发器，是NVIDIA和各大超大规模数据中心的核心供应商，市占率高达80%。在云数据中心和电信网络的高性能激光器领域极具竞争力。大厂背书，靠谱。

• $SMTC (Semtech)
专精于高性能模拟、混合信号集成电路、物联网系统及云端连接服务。尤其在激光驱动芯片和 CDR领域优势明显，是信号调理环节的关键。虽然不是最性感的环节，但不可或缺。

🔹 第四层：代工厂 - 制造产能

有了设计和材料，谁来生产？代工厂就是把图纸变成芯片的关键环节。

• $TSM (台积电)
正在积极布局 CPO（共封装光学）技术。台积电的 COWAS 封装技术与硅光技术的结合，是未来 AI 算力卡的标配。龙头就是龙头。

• $TSEM (Tower Semiconductor)
总部位于以色列，专门从事模拟和混合信号制造，在硅光代工领域有先发优势，是很多初创光子设计公司的首选。小而美。

🔹 第五层：测试、检测与封装 - 质量守门员

光子芯片出厂前，必须经过严格的测试和检测，这一环节直接决定良品率。

• $AEHR (Aehr Test Systems)
目前的明星股！核心逻辑是光子芯片，尤其是激光器在出厂前需要长时间的"老化测试"。随着硅光芯片上量，AEHR 的晶圆级测试设备需求呈指数级增长。这是今年的大黑马。

• $ONTO (Onto Innovation)
专注于微电子器件、逻辑芯片、DRAM 内存以及先进封装领域提供高性能的过程控制量测、缺陷检测、光刻技术和数据分析系统，提供自动光学检测，在异构集成封装检测中不可或缺。稳健型选手。

🔹 第六层：光学模块 - 系统的物理表现

这一层是把光芯片、电芯片、光纤连接器整合在一起的"黑盒子"，也是最接近终端应用的环节。

• $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics)
随着数据中心向 800G/1.6T 演进，AAOI 作为具有自主激光器产能的模块厂商，成本优势和产能弹性都很明显。高弹性标的。

• $GLW (Corning)
康宁是光纤之王。无论芯片怎么变，最终光信号还是要通过康宁的光纤进行传输。躺赢的存在。

🔹 第七层：网络连接 - 价值兑现终点

这是整条产业链的最后一环，也是价值兑现的终点。所有的技术最终都要在网络设备上体现出来。

• $AVGO (Broadcom)
光子学领域的终极 Boss！博通不仅拥有全球最强的交换芯片，还通过集成硅光技术CPO直接将光接口做进芯片里。同时也是ASIC定制芯片的龙头企业，是谷歌TPU的核心合作伙伴。属于真正的王者。

• $ANET (Arista Networks)
AI 数据中心网络架构的领导者，是光模块的最大采购方和应用场景定义者。需求端的话事人。

• $MRVL (Marvell)
在光互联 DSP 领域与博通双头垄断，其 PAM4 DSP 芯片是 800G 光模块的标配。技术壁垒很高。

总结来说，光子学这条产业链，不是什么遥远的未来技术，而是正在发生的现在进行时。AI 算力的爆发，已经把光互联从"可选项"变成了"刚需"。

从材料到设备，从激光器到封装，从光模块到网络连接，每一层都有明确的赢家和清晰的投资逻辑。我个人策略很简单，一旦光模块板块出现回调，逢低买入是一个好机会！

这份清单里面：
• 有稳健的行业巨头（ASML、台积电、博通）
• 有高弹性的成长标的（AEHR、TSEM、AAOI）

我们不需要全买，但至少要知道这条产业链的关键环节在哪里，钱流向了谁。

AI 的下半场，不只是 GPU 的游戏，光子学才是真正的物理层卡位战。布局正当时，等风来。DYOR🙏

目前上述提及的公司在 #MSX 上面基本都有，炒美股，我选择用 #RWA 美股代币化平台 #MSX，一同投资参与美股市场：http://msx.com/?code=Vu2v44

早期美股投资粉丝和伙伴，可以私信我，填写表单后，可免费进入美股交流和探讨社群(目前每周仅限定10人，助理审核，可能需要一点时间，感恩🙏)！

Rocky: 很多人炒 AI，眼里只有英伟达！

涨了追，跌了慌，最后发现自己就是在坐过山车。其实真正聪明的钱，早就开始布局 AI 的物理层了。

什么叫物理层？就是那些给 #AI 芯片提供电、散热、连接、封装的公司。英伟达再牛，也得靠这些'卖铲子'的公司来支撑整个生态。

我们看看数据就知道了：
• AI

the simplest institutional edge you can steal as a retail investor:

follow the supply chain, not the stock price.

most retail investors watch $NVDA go up and ask: what other AI stocks should i buy?

institutional analysts do something different. they trace the supply chain upstream/downstream from nvidia and ask: what does nvidia need that it can't build itself?

the answer is almost always a company you've never heard of, with a market cap under $2B, that makes something very specific and very irreplaceable.

and we seen this lately; $AAOI, $SIVE, $AXTI, $AEHR

probe cards. photomasks. power conversion ICs. optical interposers. the parts that sit between the fab and the finished product.

those companies get priced last. they move after the institutional allocation has already happened.

by the time nvidia is in your news feed, the supply chain is three moves ahead.

that's the edge. trace the chain. find the chokepoint. own it before it's obvious.

-BP

A material most investors have never heard of is quietly becoming the single most IMPORTANT chokepoint in the entire AI infrastructure stack.

It’s called indium phosphide. And right now, demand for it is outpacing supply by 70%.

Here’s why it matters:

When hyperscalers build massive GPU clusters; thousands of chips spread across racks, rows, and entire buildings, those chips need to communicate with each other at extraordinary speeds.

Continuously. At near-zero latency.

Copper wire cannot do this at 800G and 1.6T speeds without generating so much heat the signal degrades before it arrives.

The ONLY physical solution is light. And to generate that light, you need indium phosphide.

InP is the material inside the laser components of every serious optical transceiver in production today.

Silicon is brilliant at computation. It is terrible at producing laser light.

Indium phosphide is the opposite, it converts electricity directly into coherent infrared light at exactly the wavelengths used in fiber-optic data centers. Remove it from the stack and the entire system stops.

This is not a niche component. This is the nerve ending that makes the AI nervous system function.

And the supply chain was never designed for what AI is demanding from it.

A handful of companies control global InP substrate production. A meaningful share of that production touches China directly or indirectly, with advanced epitaxial processing concentrated in Taiwan.

In February 2025, China introduced export licensing for InP-related materials. Epitaxial fabs hold weeks of inventory, not months.

A few months of licensing friction halts production. Once lasers stop shipping, everything downstream stalls: transceivers, switches, AI clusters.

Lumentum’s CEO said in early 2026 that despite a 12x increase in manufacturing capacity over 24 months, the company is “falling further and further behind demand.”

Their InP laser production is now fully allocated for the next 32 months. Lead times that were measured in weeks two years ago are now measured in years.

$AXTI, which controls 60–70% of global InP substrate production through its Beijing facility, reported an InP order backlog of over $60 million, more than double what it was six months earlier.

They are tracking to double production capacity by end of 2026. It still won’t be enough.

The SUPPLY-DEMAND gap on InP devices is projected at 70% for 2026.

Here is the thing most investors miss:

Silicon photonics does not replace indium phosphide. It depends on it. Every modern silicon photonics system bonds InP laser dies onto silicon chips using advanced packaging.

As silicon photonics adoption grows and systems get denser and faster, total InP demand increases. The more efficient the architecture becomes, the more InP it needs.

The companies MOST exposed to this chokepoint, as direct beneficiaries of scarcity pricing and multi-year backlog visibility, are $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, and $AXTI. Each sits at a different layer of the same bottleneck.

The market has partially re-rated the transceiver layer. It has not re-rated the substrate suppliers. That gap is where the asymmetry still exists.

AI progress is no longer limited by algorithms or model architecture. It is limited by atoms.

The investors who understand which atoms are the chokepoints, and who controls them, will find the real alpha in this cycle.

The constraint is ALREADY downstream.

-BP

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence

Black Panther Capital: $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE have already run 150-250% and trade at extreme multiples.

The UPSTREAM play is where the undiscovered leverage sits.

Here is what most people are missing in the photonics chain:

Transceiver makers:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, visible, crowded, already priced for

Wall Street talks about the hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT. That is where the headlines are.

But the money flows through the supply chain. Capex is tracking above $1 trillion this year.

That is six times the level of 2022

Here is the full stack, sector by sector, of who actually gets paid:

Power Infrastructure:
$IREN, $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF

The compute layer requires power first. These are the companies building and owning the megawatt-scale facilities that hyperscalers cannot build fast enough themselves.

Optical Networking:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, $POET

GPU clusters are useless without the interconnects that move data between them at 800G and 1.6T speeds. This sector is capacity-constrained and just had its export inputs tightened by China this week.

Space & Infrastructure:
$RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $SATL, $FLY, $ONDS, $KTOS

Golden Dome. Autonomous systems. Satellite constellations. The government is funding the next generation of distributed compute and surveillance infrastructure from orbit.

Critical Materials:
$AXTI, $ALMU

The raw substrate layer that the entire photonics stack sits on. Severely undersupplied. Almost zero retail coverage.

Launch & Deployment:
$RKLB, $ASTS

Getting infrastructure into orbit requires reliable, affordable launch. One company owns this market. The public comp is scaling fast.

Every sector on this list has either hyperscaler contract backing, government funding, or a physical supply constraint that makes demand inelastic.

Save this for later.

-BP

Please note this is not financial advice.

$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE have already run 150-250% and trade at extreme multiples.

The UPSTREAM play is where the undiscovered leverage sits.

Here is what most people are missing in the photonics chain:

Transceiver makers:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, visible, crowded, already priced for growth.

Laser / substrate suppliers:
$COHR InP fabs (Texas + Sweden), $AXTI (35% of global InP substrate supply)

Emerging platform plays:
$POET (optical interposer, integrates lasers and electronics on one chip, Foxconn-backed). $ALMU (Aeluma, compound semiconductor materials, defense + photonics)

Critical materials: InP wafer demand exceeds supply by 70%. China tightened export controls this week.

The companies sitting closest to the constraint are not the ones that already ran. The supply chain analysis points to what has not moved yet. The companies that control the material chokepoint tend to reprice when the downstream bottleneck becomes undeniable.

We are close to that moment.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice. Your money, your decision.

Paradis Labs: @babybluecream The real asymmetry to watch is if $POET lands a Tier-1 hyperscaler before the next dilutive raise?

If yes, the short squeeze potential on a ~$1B float name could be violent.

If no, I think the stock drifts toward cash value while longs rotate into $LITE, $MRVL, or $AAOI on

RT TacticzHazel
$LITE $COHR $AXTI $POET $AAOI
Photonics stocks are hot. And I believe there are many ways to play it.

You can follow @aleabitoreddit who is great at catching momentum (and/or creating it).

There are accounts like @PhotonCap @crux_capital_ @damnang2 @FinnStockinger @KawzInvests @insane_analyst who provide deep research.

But the best way to go about this, is to do you own research.

You HAVE to know what you own!

I see a lot of borrowed conviction right now.

If there's one thing I've learned FROM trying to understand photonics, is that it's hard.

Very hard.

It takes time.

I think a lot of people overestimate what they know, and underestimate what they do not.

And that's especially true for tricky sectors like Photonics.

So therefore I started writing down my thoughts, and I started from the absolute bottom.

And in this beginner's guide I share it with all of you!

Please check it out, bookmark it, and share it!

PS. I have not invested in any of the photonics companies yet, I first really want to understand the overall sector, plus the companies better.

TacticzHazel: http://x.com/i/article/2034195018273923072

$LITE $COHR $AXTI $POET $AAOI
Photonics stocks are hot. And I believe there are many ways to play it.

You can follow @aleabitoreddit who is great at catching momentum (and/or creating it).

There are accounts like @PhotonCap @crux_capital_ @damnang2 @FinnStockinger @KawzInvests @insane_analyst who provide deep research.

But the best way to go about this, is to do you own research.

You HAVE to know what you own!

I see a lot of borrowed conviction right now.

If there's one thing I've learned FROM trying to understand photonics, is that it's hard.

Very hard.

It takes time.

I think a lot of people overestimate what they know, and underestimate what they do not.

And that's especially true for tricky sectors like Photonics.

So therefore I started writing down my thoughts, and I started from the absolute bottom.

And in this beginner's guide I share it with all of you!

Please check it out, bookmark it, and share it!

PS. I have not invested in any of the photonics companies yet, I first really want to understand the overall sector, plus the companies better.

TacticzHazel: http://x.com/i/article/2034195018273923072

I love this post.

The transparency from @Gubloinvestor is incredible and pure alpha.

The comment section is even filled with more gems.

There’s 3 things we can learn from this.

1. Don’t let your emotions run your portfolio. I recently bought $IBRX at $5. Sold at $7,5. I bought $NBIS at $20 sold at $35 the first time I was in it.

2. Discipline is EVERYTHING in this game. Reading the comment section a lot of people sold way too early.

3. Train your patience. It’s hard in a fast paced modern world. We often expect the results ‘yesterday’. Great plays takes time to play out.

What I loved the most about reading the comment section, were to see that we as human makes the EXACT same mistake all the time.

We let our emotions run. Instead of training them like a dog.

Takeaway; Train your emotions like a freakin’ army dog.

-BP

Gublo 🇨🇦: I sold my 25,000 $AXTI shares at $1.50 in April of last year.

It did 30X from there this week

i believe that i will come across one stock this weekend where i hope to make 30X in 2-4 years.

RT KaizenInvestor
I have written a full article on the AI chip supply chain.

The supply chain is structured into 4 different phases with 13 layers:

1. Raw Materials: $SHECY, $SUOPY, GlobalWafers, $WAF.DE, $SHWDF, $AXTI, $IQE
2. Manufacturing Equipment: $ASML, $ASM.AS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC
3. EDA & Core Intellectual Property: $SNPS, $CDNS, $ARM, $RMBS
4. Chip Design: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $QCOM
5. Foundries: $TSM, Samsung Semiconductor, $SMIC
6. Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU
7. Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group
8. Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn
9. Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET
10. Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE
11. Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $CIFR
12. Hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META
13. AI Storage, platforms and Data: VAST data, Weka, NetAPP, $PLTR, Blue Yonder, $KXSCF

The article covers it all.

KaizenInvestor: http://x.com/i/article/2029218092270628864

AXT Inc $AXTI

一家做高性能化合物半导体衬底 (Substrates) 制造商，也是现在火热的光通信行业的上游之一。

InP衬底是增长最快的产品线，用于 AI 数据中心光模块、高速光纤通信、激光雷达 LiDAR ，性能比硅晶圆更高，也是 AXTI 业务增长点。

下游：
AI 数据中心光模块、800G/1.6T 光通信、5G、激光器、卫星与国防

护城河：
- 垂直一体化（从晶体生长到衬底加工），良率与成本优势明显。
- InP / 高端 GaAs 技术壁垒高、玩家极少。
- 技术壁垒：生长化合物半导体晶体（如 InP）比生长硅晶体难得多。

看起来公司的行业☑️、护城河也很强，算是目前的AI数据中心瓶颈之一。但其生产基地在中国，地缘政治就成了最大的风险。

另外，去年股价增长了难以置信的 1000% 以上，从一个微型股成长成了小盘股，现在市值 1.30B USD，营收不足 $100M，P/S TTM = 11.6。

估值在小盘股里还行。对比一下，Lumentum $LITE P/S TTM = 18.37

所以如果能成功在中国之外建造生产基地，估值还会大涨一轮。

keep watching!

2025年内有很多上涨很多倍的GEM，看来我吃到的还是少啊，很多好公司是最近才发现的，高速增长的时候都过去了。所以现在很重要的工作，就是挖掘 hidden gem !

keep digging!