Weekly prediction(s) recap:

$NVDA to $225 ✅
- Ran to $236.54 (+10%)

$TSLA to $450 ✅
- Ran to $453.40 (+7%)

$NOW to $100 ❌
- Ran to $96.67 (+6%)

$AMAT to $450 ❌
- Ran to $448.45 (-2%)

$ZS to $165 ❌
- Ran to $162.73 (+9%)

Overall I'm happy with my trades and predictions for the week. Have a great weekend friends!

RonnieV: Weekly prediction(s):

$NVDA to $225
$TSLA to $450
$NOW to $100
$AMAT to $450
$ZS to $165

🔮

RT Investing visuals
The AI data center bottlenecks map & key players:

Demand:
• $MSFT
• $GOOGL
• $META
• $AMZN
• Leading LLM providers

Layer 1 - Systems & colocation:
• $DELL
• $HPQ
• $SMCI
• $EQIX
• $DLR

Layer 2A - Memory:
• $MU
• $HYNSE
• $SMSD

Layer 2B - Networking & optics:
• $AVGO
• $COHR
• $MRVL

Layer 2C - Power & cooling:
• $VRT
• $ETN
• $BE

Layer 3 - In-rack connectivity:
• $AVGO
• $ALAB
• $CRDO

Layer 4 - Foundry & packaging:
• $INTC
• $ASX
• $TSM
• $AMCR

Layer 5 - Semiconductor equipment:
• $ASML
• $AMAT
• $LRCX
• $KLAC

Note that this isn't an exhaustive list, but rather an overview of the most important businesses per segment.

I hope you found this breakdown insightful!

I've covered the supply chain in more detail in the article linked below.

Investing visuals: I just published my latest research article: The AI data center bottlenecks map, covering:

• The AI supply chain
• The key players at critical bottlenecks
• Where to look as constraints move down the supply chain

I loved diving into this over the past few weeks with the goal

最近光模块板块有点回调，不少小伙伴又开始担心了，纷纷建议我们来讲一讲。正好最近 ChatGPT Images 2出来，测试了一下用它做行研分析图，如👇图1，就是用Images 2出的光模块拆解，效果真的不错。

言归正传，我们依旧长期看好光模块领域的核心企业，AI 数据中心的算力战争，早已经从 GPU 打到光子芯片了。🧐

很多人还在死盯着英伟达，殊不知真正的卡脖子环节，早就转移到光互联和光子学这条产业链上了。

我们看看数据就知道了：AI 服务器的功耗从传统的 5-10kW 直接飙升到 100kW+，这些算力怪兽之间的数据传输，靠传统铜线？根本扛不住！光子芯片，才是 #AI 基础设施的下一个必争之地。

我们最近花了不少时间，把整条光子学产业链从头到尾梳理了一遍。从最上游的材料、设备，到中游的激光器、代工厂，再到下游的光模块、网络连接，每个环节的核心标的都扒拉了个遍。

这不是什么概念炒作，是实打实的硬科技赛道，每一层都有明确的投资机会。咱们掰开揉碎了讲，看看这条产业链到底藏着哪些机会：

🔹 第一层：材料与晶圆 - 半导体之基

这是产业链最顶端，主要提供磷化铟、砷化镓这些化合物半导体材料。说白了，没有这些材料，后面啥都别想搞。

• $AXTI (AXT Inc)
垂直整合的衬底供应商，在 InP（光通信激光器专用）市场占据重要地位。这哥们是从源头卡位的玩家。

• $WOLF (Wolfspeed)
虽然主攻碳化硅功率器件，但在氮化镓射频和光电衬底方面也有深厚积淀。多条腿走路。

• $COHR (Coherent)
全球领先的工程材料和光子器件厂商。不仅卖材料，还向下游垂直整合到激光器和模块，这是真正的巨头玩家。

🔹 第二层：制造设备 - 卡脖子环节

光子芯片的制造需要极高精度的光刻和外延生长设备，这可是真正的卡脖子环节。科林研发(LRCX)与应用材料(AMAT）、阿斯麦(ASML）并列，是全球前三大半导体设备商。

• $ASML(阿斯麦)
绝对的霸主，没啥好说的。随着硅光技术向更小纳米节点迈进，ASML 的光刻机是不可或缺的。垄断级别的存在。

• $AMAT (Applied Materials) & $LRCX (Lam Research)
在薄膜沉积、刻蚀等关键工艺上提供设备。2026 年的逻辑很清楚，随着 AI 驱动的晶圆厂扩产，这些设备厂的订单可见度极高。稳稳的。

🔹 第三层：激光器 - 光源引擎

激光器是把电信号转化为光信号的核心心脏，不可或缺的关键要素，妥妥的卖铲子王者。

• $LITE (Lumentum)
提供用于800G到1.6T高速数据传输的磷化铟激光器、EML激光器及光收发器，是NVIDIA和各大超大规模数据中心的核心供应商，市占率高达80%。在云数据中心和电信网络的高性能激光器领域极具竞争力。大厂背书，靠谱。

• $SMTC (Semtech)
专精于高性能模拟、混合信号集成电路、物联网系统及云端连接服务。尤其在激光驱动芯片和 CDR领域优势明显，是信号调理环节的关键。虽然不是最性感的环节，但不可或缺。

🔹 第四层：代工厂 - 制造产能

有了设计和材料，谁来生产？代工厂就是把图纸变成芯片的关键环节。

• $TSM (台积电)
正在积极布局 CPO（共封装光学）技术。台积电的 COWAS 封装技术与硅光技术的结合，是未来 AI 算力卡的标配。龙头就是龙头。

• $TSEM (Tower Semiconductor)
总部位于以色列，专门从事模拟和混合信号制造，在硅光代工领域有先发优势，是很多初创光子设计公司的首选。小而美。

🔹 第五层：测试、检测与封装 - 质量守门员

光子芯片出厂前，必须经过严格的测试和检测，这一环节直接决定良品率。

• $AEHR (Aehr Test Systems)
目前的明星股！核心逻辑是光子芯片，尤其是激光器在出厂前需要长时间的"老化测试"。随着硅光芯片上量，AEHR 的晶圆级测试设备需求呈指数级增长。这是今年的大黑马。

• $ONTO (Onto Innovation)
专注于微电子器件、逻辑芯片、DRAM 内存以及先进封装领域提供高性能的过程控制量测、缺陷检测、光刻技术和数据分析系统，提供自动光学检测，在异构集成封装检测中不可或缺。稳健型选手。

🔹 第六层：光学模块 - 系统的物理表现

这一层是把光芯片、电芯片、光纤连接器整合在一起的"黑盒子"，也是最接近终端应用的环节。

• $AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics)
随着数据中心向 800G/1.6T 演进，AAOI 作为具有自主激光器产能的模块厂商，成本优势和产能弹性都很明显。高弹性标的。

• $GLW (Corning)
康宁是光纤之王。无论芯片怎么变，最终光信号还是要通过康宁的光纤进行传输。躺赢的存在。

🔹 第七层：网络连接 - 价值兑现终点

这是整条产业链的最后一环，也是价值兑现的终点。所有的技术最终都要在网络设备上体现出来。

• $AVGO (Broadcom)
光子学领域的终极 Boss！博通不仅拥有全球最强的交换芯片，还通过集成硅光技术CPO直接将光接口做进芯片里。同时也是ASIC定制芯片的龙头企业，是谷歌TPU的核心合作伙伴。属于真正的王者。

• $ANET (Arista Networks)
AI 数据中心网络架构的领导者，是光模块的最大采购方和应用场景定义者。需求端的话事人。

• $MRVL (Marvell)
在光互联 DSP 领域与博通双头垄断，其 PAM4 DSP 芯片是 800G 光模块的标配。技术壁垒很高。

总结来说，光子学这条产业链，不是什么遥远的未来技术，而是正在发生的现在进行时。AI 算力的爆发，已经把光互联从"可选项"变成了"刚需"。

从材料到设备，从激光器到封装，从光模块到网络连接，每一层都有明确的赢家和清晰的投资逻辑。我个人策略很简单，一旦光模块板块出现回调，逢低买入是一个好机会！

这份清单里面：
• 有稳健的行业巨头（ASML、台积电、博通）
• 有高弹性的成长标的（AEHR、TSEM、AAOI）

我们不需要全买，但至少要知道这条产业链的关键环节在哪里，钱流向了谁。

AI 的下半场，不只是 GPU 的游戏，光子学才是真正的物理层卡位战。布局正当时，等风来。DYOR🙏

目前上述提及的公司在 #MSX 上面基本都有，炒美股，我选择用 #RWA 美股代币化平台 #MSX，一同投资参与美股市场：http://msx.com/?code=Vu2v44

早期美股投资粉丝和伙伴，可以私信我，填写表单后，可免费进入美股交流和探讨社群(目前每周仅限定10人，助理审核，可能需要一点时间，感恩🙏)！

Rocky: 很多人炒 AI，眼里只有英伟达！

涨了追，跌了慌，最后发现自己就是在坐过山车。其实真正聪明的钱，早就开始布局 AI 的物理层了。

什么叫物理层？就是那些给 #AI 芯片提供电、散热、连接、封装的公司。英伟达再牛，也得靠这些'卖铲子'的公司来支撑整个生态。

我们看看数据就知道了：
• AI

THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN — COMPLETE MAP

I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish.

Every layer. Every sector.

Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments.

Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines):
$ASML
$AMAT
$LRCX
$TSEM

Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM
$GFS
$INTC

Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA
$AVGO
$AMD
$MRVL

Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU
$WDC

Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects:
$COHR
$LITE
$AAOI
$POET
$MTSI
$ALMU

Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI):
$IREN
$NBIS
$CIFR
$WULF
$EQIX
$RKLB
$ASTS
$PL

Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface):
$CRWD
$PANW
$ZS
$NET
$S
$FTNT

Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up):
$PATH
$PLTR
$NOW
$HIMS
$DDOG
$SNOW
$MDB
$SOFI

Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational):
$ONDS
$OSS
$RKLB
$AMPX
$LHX
$RTX
$NOC
$PNG.V

Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow.

Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me.

The market won't be red forever.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice.

The hyperscalers aren’t cutting AI capex.

$660-700B committed for 2026. Contracts signed. Fabs running.

Here’s where that money flows:

Compute: $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO
Memory: $MU, $SKX
Neoclouds: $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR
Equipment: $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC
Power: $CEG, $VST, $ETN
Cooling: $VRT,
Networking: $ANET, $LITE, $AAOI

The Iran war slows sentiment, but it doesn’t slow AI buildouts.

Save this for later.

-BP

Please note, this is not financial advice.

🚨 Taiwan has ONLY ELEVEN days of natural gas reserves.

Taiwan runs 53% of its power grid on natural gas.

Qatar supplied 33% of that gas through Hormuz.

That route is now totally DISRUPTED!

Japan has 3 weeks. South Korea has a month.

Taiwan has eleven days, the LOWEST buffer in East Asia.

The government has secured supply through April.

May is being worked on. June is an open question.

And summer electricity demand in Taiwan is 40% higher than it is right now.

Here’s what this means for semiconductors:

Gas-fired plants generate more than 53% of Taiwan’s power. TSMC alone consumes roughly 8% of the entire national grid, rising toward 12.5% by year end. 

$TSM controls 70% of global chip foundry capacity and near-monopoly on the bleeding-edge nodes that power EVERY ai system on earth.

The hyperscalers committed $660-700B in AI capex for 2026.

Every dollar of that ASSUMES $TSM keeps the lights on.

Here’s where the real plays are:

1. $LNG (Cheniere Energy)

Taiwan is reorienting its entire energy supply chain toward the US. Cheniere is the direct beneficiary.

2. $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC

Every day this crisis continues, the case for accelerating US and Japanese fab buildouts gets stronger. Equipment orders are being front-loaded. Geographic diversification becoming existential.

3. $INTC + TSMC Arizona

Not better fabs. Not cheaper fabs. Fabs that aren’t on a grid with 11 days of gas reserves.

4. $NVDA

Any TSMC production constraint tightens GPU allocation. Scarcity pricing. That’s not bearish, that’s the opposite.

Watch for:

→ TSMC Q1 earnings, any energy commentary changes everything

→ Taiwan government statement on May/June LNG supply security

→ JKM Asia LNG benchmark price already doubled. Watch for further moves in April. 

→ Summer demand peak. Taiwan grid stress starts July

The financial shortage is here now.

The physical shortage risk builds toward summer.

The market hasn’t priced either one fully.

-BP

Please note, this is not financial advice.

RT KaizenInvestor
I have written a full article on the AI chip supply chain.

The supply chain is structured into 4 different phases with 13 layers:

1. Raw Materials: $SHECY, $SUOPY, GlobalWafers, $WAF.DE, $SHWDF, $AXTI, $IQE
2. Manufacturing Equipment: $ASML, $ASM.AS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC
3. EDA & Core Intellectual Property: $SNPS, $CDNS, $ARM, $RMBS
4. Chip Design: $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $QCOM
5. Foundries: $TSM, Samsung Semiconductor, $SMIC
6. Memory and HBM: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, $MU
7. Packaging and OSAT: ASE Technology, $AMKR, JCET Group
8. Server and Rack Integration: $SMCI, $DELL, $HPE, Foxconn
9. Networking Silicon: $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO, $ANET
10. Photonics and Optical Components: Ayar Labs, $ALAB, $CRDO, $COHR, $LITE
11. Power, Thermal management and Grid: $VRT, $MOD, $NVT, $SU.PA, $IREN, $CIFR
12. Hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META
13. AI Storage, platforms and Data: VAST data, Weka, NetAPP, $PLTR, Blue Yonder, $KXSCF

The article covers it all.

KaizenInvestor: http://x.com/i/article/2029218092270628864

轉貼文章
來自https://x.com/stocksavvyshay/status/2022696338627145797?s=46

以下是2026年表現最佳的15家公司：

1. $SNDK +164%

2. $WDC +63%

3. $BE +61%

4. $TWST +55%

5. $MU +44%

6. $APLD +44%

7. $AEHR +43%

8. $DOCN +42%

9. $AMAT +38%

10. $LRCX +38%

11. $ENPH +36%

12. $NXT +34%

13. $ON +33%

14. $CRML +33%

15. $ASML +31%

Shay Boloor: HERE ARE THE TOP 15 PERFORMERS OF 2026

1. $SNDK +164%
2. $WDC +63%
3. $BE +61%
4. $TWST +55%
5. $MU +44%
6. $APLD +44%
7. $AEHR +43%
8. $DOCN +42%
9. $AMAT +38%
10. $LRCX +38%
11. $ENPH +36%
12. $NXT +34%
13. $ON +33%
14. $CRML +33%
15. $ASML +31%

THE HBM sector could grow from $4B in 2023 to $130B by 2033 according to Bloomberg.

These companies are set to benefit:

The Big 3:
$MU | Micron
$SSNLF | Samsung
$HXSCL | SK Hynix

Ecosystem:
$ASML | ASML
$TSM | TSMC
$INTC | Intel
$AMD | Advanced Micro Devices
$NVDA | Nvidia

Advanced Equipment Suppliers
$BESI | BE Semiconductor
Hanmi Semiconductor
Disco Corp

Packaging:
$AMKR | Amkor
ASE Technology Holding
JCET Group

Design and IP
$RMBS | Rambus
$CDNS | Cadence Design Systems
$SNPS | Synopsys

Others:
$MRVL | Marvell
Fujitsu
Powertech Technology
$AMAT | Applied Materials
$KLIC | Kulicke and Soffa

HBM Supply Chain Overview

$MU - Micron
$HXSCL - SK Hynix
$SSNLF - Samsung
$TSM - TSMC
$NVDA - Nvidia
$AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
$SNPS - Synopsys
$BESI - BE Semiconductor Industries
$AMAT - Applied Materials
$AVGO - Broadcom
$MRVL - Marvell
$DD - DuPont
$MSFT - Microsoft
$GOOGL - Alphabet
$META - META
$LCRX - Lam Research

RT TacticzHazel
HBM Supply Chain Overview

$MU - Micron
$HXSCL - SK Hynix
$SSNLF - Samsung
$TSM - TSMC
$NVDA - Nvidia
$AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
$SNPS - Synopsys
$BESI - BE Semiconductor Industries
$AMAT - Applied Materials
$AVGO - Broadcom
$MRVL - Marvell
$DD - DuPont
$MSFT - Microsoft
$GOOGL - Alphabet
$META - META
$LCRX - Lam Research

2026 Alpha Thesis: Hardware Maturation + Supply Shock. 🚀⚡️
The "Promise Phase" is over. The "Deployment Phase" is here.
1️⃣ Rocket ( $RKLB, $FLY , $ASTS , $RDW): SpaceX IPO rumors = sector re-rate. Neutron launch is the value unlock.
2️⃣ CPU ( $AMD, $INTC): Cloud is crowded; the "Edge AI" PC supercycle is the volume trade.
3️⃣ DRAM ( $MU $SNDK $AMAT $ASML $TSM $LRCX): HBM is a supply black hole. Standard memory shortage = pricing power.
4️⃣ Energy ( $VST, $CEG, $BE): No power = No AI. Nuclear baseload is the new gold.
The trade: Long scarcity & physical infra. 📈
#StockMarket #Investing #AI #Space