2026Q1 HOWARD MARKS 和 OAKTREE CAPITAL

TORM $TRMD：7.576億美元
Expand Energy $EXE：5.03億美元
Garrett Motion $GTX：4.61億美元
AngloGold Ashanti $AU：3.128億美元
Core Scientific $CORZ：2.298億美元
Viper Energy $VNOM：1.81億美元
Telephone and Data Systems $TDS：1.78億美元
Nokia $NOK：1.572億美元
SunOpta $STKL：1.347億美元
Petroleo Brasileiro $PBR：1.208億美元
Talen Energy $TLN：1.15億美元
Barrick $B：1.105億美元
CBL & Associates $CBL：9,940萬美元
Itau Unibanco $ITUB： 9,790萬美元
Liberty Global (LBTYA)：9,710萬美元
Credo Technology (CRDO)：9,630萬美元
TransAlta (TAC)：8,420萬美元
Freeport-McMoran (FCX)：7,740萬美元
Kilroy Realty (KRC)：6,570萬美元
Grupo Aeromexico (AERO)：5,960萬美元
XP Inc (XP)：5,650萬美元
Bausch + Lomb (BLCO)：5,410萬美元
Runway Growth Finance (RWAY)：4,680萬美元
Liberty Latin America (LILAK)：4,440萬美元
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)：3,930萬美元
Array Digital Infrastructure (AD)：3,690萬美元
Cemex (CX)：3570萬美元
Ecovyst (ECVT)：3,470萬美元
Embraer (EMBJ)： 2,620萬美元
Ternium $TX：2560萬美元
Rice Acquisition 3 $KRSP：2,490萬美元
Oaktree Specialty Lending $OCSL：2,220萬美元
Telecom Argentina $TEO：2010萬美元
Simply Good Foods $SMPL：1300萬美元
Magnachip Semiconductor $MX：1,210萬美元
SmartRent $SMRT：870萬美元
Battalion Oil $BATL：660萬美元
NRG Energy $NRG：660萬美元
Optimum Communications $OPTU：650萬美元
Liberty Latin America A $LILA：630萬美元
Asertio Holdings $ASRT：500萬美元
Invesco Senior Loan ETF $BKLN：410萬美元
HDFC Bank $HDB：280萬美元
PDD Holdings $PDD：45.9萬美元
Alvotech $ALVO： 33.3萬美元
BioXcel Therapeutics (股票代號：BTAI)：28.9萬美元

NU、ORCL、SMH、GRAB 全部售出

RT Investing visuals
The AI data center bottlenecks map & key players:

Demand:
• $MSFT
• $GOOGL
• $META
• $AMZN
• Leading LLM providers

Layer 1 - Systems & colocation:
• $DELL
• $HPQ
• $SMCI
• $EQIX
• $DLR

Layer 2A - Memory:
• $MU
• $HYNSE
• $SMSD

Layer 2B - Networking & optics:
• $AVGO
• $COHR
• $MRVL

Layer 2C - Power & cooling:
• $VRT
• $ETN
• $BE

Layer 3 - In-rack connectivity:
• $AVGO
• $ALAB
• $CRDO

Layer 4 - Foundry & packaging:
• $INTC
• $ASX
• $TSM
• $AMCR

Layer 5 - Semiconductor equipment:
• $ASML
• $AMAT
• $LRCX
• $KLAC

Note that this isn't an exhaustive list, but rather an overview of the most important businesses per segment.

I hope you found this breakdown insightful!

I've covered the supply chain in more detail in the article linked below.

Investing visuals: I just published my latest research article: The AI data center bottlenecks map, covering:

• The AI supply chain
• The key players at critical bottlenecks
• Where to look as constraints move down the supply chain

I loved diving into this over the past few weeks with the goal

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $CBRS Cerebras opened about 75% above its expected IPO price of $185, giving the AI chip company a roughly $100B market cap despite generating $585M in revenue last year. Ark Invest also bought 105,616 shares just one day after the IPO, adding more attention to the name. The momentum is set to continue with LeverageShares launching a 2x leveraged Cerebras ETF tomorrow morning.

2. President Trump submitted his latest stock purchase and sale disclosures to the White House Office of Ethics, with the filing reportedly spanning more than 100 pages and including thousands of trades. The disclosure is notable because it shows a sitting president actively trading individual securities rather than only holding assets like corporate debt, index funds, or Treasuries. Some of the names listed as purchases include $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN, and $RKLB.

3. The U.S. has approved around 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s $NVDA H200, the company’s second-most powerful AI chip. Nvidia hit an all time high at $240 today.

4.Figure AI has been livestreaming its humanoid robots performing real warehouse-style package sorting tasks using its Helix-02 AI system. The robots pick up, scan, rotate, and place packages onto conveyor belts autonomously while operating for extremely long periods, including a reported 24/7 run after initially targeting an 8-hour shift. The livestream is meant to prove that humanoid robots can handle repetitive labor reliably and economically, rather than just perform flashy demos. Many viewers see it as one of the first convincing demonstrations of commercially viable humanoid labor, especially for warehouses and logistics. The robot has so far dealt with 34K packages live and has reached parity with a human worker that can do 3 every second.

5. The most traded stocks in the options market today were $NVDA with 5.0M contracts, $TSLA with 2.5M, $NOK with 889K, $F with 860K, $ONDS with 849K, $INTC with 814K, $AAPL with 752K, $MSFT with 736K, $MSTR with 670K, and $MU with 644K.

6. Semiconductor leverage flows surged, with $SOXL, the 3x long semiconductor ETF, taking in a record $1.03B on Tuesday. At the same time, $SOXS, the 3x short semiconductor ETF, saw $230M of outflows, its largest daily withdrawal since late March. $TQQQ also added $161M, its biggest inflow since March 31, but $SOXL inflows were more than 6x larger as traders concentrated bullish exposure in semiconductors. Since the March 30 bottom, $SOXL is up 354%, its strongest 31-day gain since launching in 2010, while the $SOX semiconductor index is up 68%, its third-best 31-day run on record.

7. Retail investors are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in years. Year-to-date retail equity inflows are ahead of every comparable period over the last seven years except 2021, and after slowing briefly in March, retail buying jumped sharply in April. The week ending May 1 ranked in the top 2% of weekly retail inflows since 2019, and at the current pace, individual investor purchases could surpass the 2021 record as soon as July. Retail options activity is also elevated, with average daily volume now at 1.57x January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 peak.

8. SpaceX could release its IPO prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC, after confidentially filing in April. The company’s roadshow is expected to start June 8, with SpaceX reportedly targeting one of the largest public offerings ever following its merger with xAI at a combined $1.25T valuation. The IPO could raise around $70B-$75B, which would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

9. AI data center demand is putting pressure on power costs across PJM, the largest U.S. grid, which serves 67M people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Wholesale power prices averaged $136.53/MWh in Q1 2026, up 75.5% from $77.78/MWh a year ago. Capacity costs rose 398.1% year-over-year, while congestion costs increased 300.4% to $2B.

10. Tech layoffs have now passed 100,000 in 2026, with TNW reporting cuts across roughly 250 events this year. LinkedIn is reducing headcount by about 5% despite 12% revenue growth, while Cloudflare is cutting more than 1,100 roles, or about 20% of its workforce. AI is becoming a major driver of the reset, with Challenger citing it as the top reason for job cuts in both March and April and linking AI to 49,135 announced layoffs so far this year.

11. President Trump said President Xi told him China will not supply military equipment to Iran and supports a peace agreement. Trump also said Xi offered to help mediate the situation and work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil flows.

12. The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee today in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill would create clearer federal rules for crypto, including when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. Crypto stocks rallied on the news, including Coinbase, as investors viewed it as a major step toward regulatory certainty. The bill still is not law and needs full Senate approval, House reconciliation, and final passage. The main fights now are over stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering rules, and ethics concerns tied to political figures profiting from crypto. $BTC Bitcoin passed $81,000.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SUBMITTED HIS STOCK PURCHASES/SALES TO THE WHITE HOUSE OFFICE OF ETHICS.

The document is over 100 pages and has thousands of trades.

This is one of the first times we've seen a sitting President actively trade securities and not just sit in corporate debt, index funds, or treasuries.

Here are some of the names that Trump bought:

$PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN.

RT Investing visuals
A breakdown of the photonics value chain and best positioned business:

Layer 1: Materials & wafers
• $GLW
• $AXTI
• $IQE
• $AIXA
• $AMS

Layer 2: Core photonic devices
• $IPGP
• $COHR
• $LITE
• $LASR
• $SIVE

• Layer 3: Components & modules
• $AAOI
• $MTSI
• $FN
• $VIAV
• $LPTH

Layer 4: Systems & equipment
• $ASML
• $BESI
• $ASM
• $LPKF
• $MKS

Layer 5: Test, metrology & yield
• $CAMT
• $FORM
• $AEHR
• $ONTO
• $VIAV

Investing visuals: Photonics stocks are going parabolic:

• $LITE +1621%
• $AAOI +1434%
• $COHR +529%
• $CRDO +377%
• $VIAV +353%
• $FN +281%
• $MTSI +189%
• $MRVL +186%
• $IPGP +136%
• $POET +127%

we've been talking about $VVV a lot

up over 100% since this tweet

crypto x AI supercycle

WSB supercycle

hyperliquid

$pengu

$zec

iykyk

WallStreetBets: AI x Crypto feels like the true final frontier that brings crypto truly mainstream

I don't see any stronger narratives

Venice looks positioned to own this vertical.

If $VVV is the private, uncensored version of ChatGPT... it feels undervalued

There are now only 10 stocks in the S&P 500 yielding 6% or more:

🏥 $DOC Healthpeak Properties — 7.1%
📦 $UPS United Parcel Service — 6.7%
💊 $PFE Pfizer — 6.6%
📦 $AMCR — Amcor — 6.4%
💻 $HPQ HP — 6.4%
🚬 $MO Altria — 6.3%
🏨 $VICI VICI Properties — 6.3%
🥣 $GIS General Mills — 6.3%
🛍️ $BBY Best Buy — 6.1%
🧪 $LYB LyondellBasell — 6.0%

The average S&P 500 dividend yield is now just ~1.1%.

美国太空军预计未来十年美国发射需求可能进入爆发式增长: 从2026年的175次增加至2036年的3000次。
$RKLB $FLY $YSS $RDW $LUNR $VOYG

Mottbox: The US Space Force projects a combined annual launch activity at Cape Canaveral + Vandenberg to increase from roughly 175 launches in 2025 to 3000 by 2036 - this does not include Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia which will also be ramping up launch activity over this time

At the beginning of every year, Barron's releases their list of top 10 stocks.

Let's see how their list has done so far this year:

🟢 $MSGS +27.3%
🟢 $XOM +26.3%
🟢 $AMZN +13.7%
🟢 $BMY +6.8%
🔴 $CMCSA -2.6%
🔴 $V -4.5%
🔴 $SLG -6.4%
🔴 $FRFHF -9.9%
🔴 $DIS -11.3%
🔴 $FLUT -49.3%

Avg of the 10: -0.9%
S&P 500: +4.3%

I've been using Perplexity Computer for the majority of my AI workflow lately-

And this is still my favorite project that I've ever built.

The ultimate insider buying tracking tool.

I wanted to find out one question:

Which stocks actually have a high correlation of share price appreciation and insider buying?

What Perplexity Computer built to answer this was truly amazing.

Here's what it did:

It pulled 1,301 real SEC Form 4 insider purchases across 184 S&P 500 stocks over the last 5 years.

Then it tracked what happened to each stock AFTER insiders bought, measuring forward returns, win rates, and purchase frequency.

It combined all of that into a single "Alpha Score" that ranks every stock by how reliably it goes up after insiders buy.

The results?

$COIN: 100% win rate. +187% average return after insider buys.
$ET: 100% win rate. 52 purchases. $514M in total insider buying.
$VST, $LUV, $CAT, $LLY, all 100% win rates.

73% of ALL insider purchases across the S&P 500 led to share price gains.

But it didn't stop there.

It also built:

- A live purchase feed tracking every new SEC filing
- Cluster buy detection (multiple insiders buying the same stock within 14 days)
- A sector heatmap showing where insiders are putting their money
- Top conviction buys (Berkshire's $2.1B OXY position, Musk's $1B TSLA buy)

The whole thing looks like a Bloomberg terminal. Dark theme.

Real time data. Fully interactive. I didn't write a single line of code.

I just told Perplexity Computer what I wanted, and it researched the data, ran the analysis, and built the entire dashboard from scratch.

This is the future of building things with AI.

The best part was that it created a proprietary "Alpha Score" for every stock.

This was a composite ranking from 0 to 100 that weighs four factors:

1. How often insiders bought (frequency)
2. How much money they put in (total value)
3. What percentage of buys led to gains (win rate)
4. How big those gains were (average forward return)

The higher the Alpha Score, the stronger the correlation between insider buying and share price appreciation.

It revealed insights you would've never expected.

The energy sector ended up having the highest Alpha Score, meaning insiders buying energy stocks is very correlated with energy stocks surging.

I have paid for data on insider buying in the past.

I literally built a better tool with Perplexity Computer than the insider buying tools I have been using for the last 3 years.

A running list of layoffs across corporate America so far in 2026:

• Snap Inc. $SNAP: ~1,000 jobs cut (16% of workforce) + 300 open roles eliminated

• The Walt Disney Company $DIS: ~1,000 layoffs, mainly in marketing

• Meta Platforms $META: Potentially 20%+ workforce cuts + Reality Labs layoffs

• Amazon $AMZN: 16,000 corporate jobs cut (after 14,000 in 2025)

• ASML Holding $ASML: ~1,700 layoffs

• Oracle Corporation $ORCL: Potential 20,000–30,000 cuts (12–18% of workforce)

• Block Inc. $XYZ: 40% workforce reduction (AI-driven)

• United Parcel Service $UPS: 30,000 jobs cut

• Pinterest $PINS: <15% workforce reduction + office closures

• Peloton Interactive $PTON: ~11% layoffs

• Citigroup $C: ~1,000 jobs cut

• Morgan Stanley $MS: ~3% workforce (~2,500 jobs)

• The Home Depot $HD: 800 jobs cut

• Atlassian $TEAM: ~10% workforce (~1,600 roles)

• Nike $NKE: 775 layoffs

• Target Corporation $TGT: 500 jobs cut

• Autodesk $ADSK: ~7% workforce (~1,000 jobs)

• Dow Inc. $DOW: 4,500 layoffs (13% of workforce)

• BlackRock $BLK: ~1% workforce (~250 jobs)

• Vimeo $VMEO: Large-scale layoffs