PORTFOLIO UPDATE
If you followed me this year, your short-term portfolio is up 125%.
Your long-term book is up 55%.
I don’t use options, calls, leap, short e.g.
The $SPX has spent most of 2026 trying to figure out what it is. We have not.
WHY I SHOW UP EVERY DAY
1st January I had 1,207 followers. Today we are approaching 23,000.
No subscription. No paid community. No X payout. No product. Just showing up every day and doing the work.
I made a pact with my daughter to show up every single day. To show her what consistency actually builds. Not in theory. In real time, with a number she can watch move.
I have a good job. I don’t need to monetize this. What I need is to show her what happens when you commit to something and don’t quit.
By EOY, I want her to see 50K on that number.
I’m still far from it. I also know how FAST that can change when the content connects and the market moves. So I keep going.
@Sandeman52 is someone I think about here. He built something real without noise.
That’s the benchmark. I’m here for the stocks, the connection, and the game.
Everything else is secondary.
LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO
Eight positions. All structural. Sold $AMPX today with 30% profit. Added to my positions in $KRKNF, $OUST and $ONDS
$RKLB: +83% | 18.51% of port.
$NBIS +142% | 17.09% of port.
$IREN +55% | 13.61% of port.
$AAOI +113% | 12.11% of port.
$OUST +39% | 11.60% of port.
$CIFR +42% | 10.41% of port.
$KRKNF -17% | 9.14% of port.
$ONDS -1% | 7.52% of port.
SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$PENG +10% | 66.1% of port.
$SIVE +98% | 33.9% of port.
HOW I SEE THE REST OF 2026
Three forces are running the tape:
1. The AI tsunami is still in the first inning.
Only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Over 92% plan to increase AI investment. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. The infrastructure phase is being priced. The productivity phase hasn’t arrived yet. The application phase is after that.
I don’t see a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies burned cash on speculation. The companies in this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real physical constraints that large capital cannot route around.
2. Political trade has replaced free trade.
This is the structural shift most retail investors are still underweighting.
Real technology, real projects, real contracts. Political decision in Washington and repriced overnight. That is the new operating environment.
Capital allocation now has a new first-order variable: political geography. Which government wants this to succeed? The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, $1.4 trillion committed, sovereign wealth choosing the US as the headquarters of the next industrial era, is the clearest current signal.
Political trade creates volatility in names exposed to the wrong jurisdiction. It creates structural advantage for names embedded in the right one.
3. The economy is shifting from consumption-driven to production-driven.
The post-WWII consumer economy ran for 80 years on demand expansion. What is building now is a production expansion cycle, driven by onshoring, defense spending, AI infrastructure, and energy security.
The companies that build, enable, or supply that production cycle are not being valued for what they are today. They are being valued for what the production economy needs them to be in 2028 and beyond.
That is what this portfolio is built on.
MY POSITIONING FROM HERE
I expect more volatile than consensus expects. Full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue. Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines.
The three forces above are not quarterly variables. They are decade-long structural shifts. Volatility between now and December is the mechanism that creates the next entry points or DCA opportunities.
YTD +55% long-term. +125% short-term.
And the cycle has barely started.
-BP
Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.
If you followed me this year, your short-term portfolio is up 125%.
Your long-term book is up 55%.
I don’t use options, calls, leap, short e.g.
The $SPX has spent most of 2026 trying to figure out what it is. We have not.
WHY I SHOW UP EVERY DAY
1st January I had 1,207 followers. Today we are approaching 23,000.
No subscription. No paid community. No X payout. No product. Just showing up every day and doing the work.
I made a pact with my daughter to show up every single day. To show her what consistency actually builds. Not in theory. In real time, with a number she can watch move.
I have a good job. I don’t need to monetize this. What I need is to show her what happens when you commit to something and don’t quit.
By EOY, I want her to see 50K on that number.
I’m still far from it. I also know how FAST that can change when the content connects and the market moves. So I keep going.
@Sandeman52 is someone I think about here. He built something real without noise.
That’s the benchmark. I’m here for the stocks, the connection, and the game.
Everything else is secondary.
LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO
Eight positions. All structural. Sold $AMPX today with 30% profit. Added to my positions in $KRKNF, $OUST and $ONDS
$RKLB: +83% | 18.51% of port.
$NBIS +142% | 17.09% of port.
$IREN +55% | 13.61% of port.
$AAOI +113% | 12.11% of port.
$OUST +39% | 11.60% of port.
$CIFR +42% | 10.41% of port.
$KRKNF -17% | 9.14% of port.
$ONDS -1% | 7.52% of port.
SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$PENG +10% | 66.1% of port.
$SIVE +98% | 33.9% of port.
HOW I SEE THE REST OF 2026
Three forces are running the tape:
1. The AI tsunami is still in the first inning.
Only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Over 92% plan to increase AI investment. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. The infrastructure phase is being priced. The productivity phase hasn’t arrived yet. The application phase is after that.
I don’t see a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies burned cash on speculation. The companies in this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real physical constraints that large capital cannot route around.
2. Political trade has replaced free trade.
This is the structural shift most retail investors are still underweighting.
Real technology, real projects, real contracts. Political decision in Washington and repriced overnight. That is the new operating environment.
Capital allocation now has a new first-order variable: political geography. Which government wants this to succeed? The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, $1.4 trillion committed, sovereign wealth choosing the US as the headquarters of the next industrial era, is the clearest current signal.
Political trade creates volatility in names exposed to the wrong jurisdiction. It creates structural advantage for names embedded in the right one.
3. The economy is shifting from consumption-driven to production-driven.
The post-WWII consumer economy ran for 80 years on demand expansion. What is building now is a production expansion cycle, driven by onshoring, defense spending, AI infrastructure, and energy security.
The companies that build, enable, or supply that production cycle are not being valued for what they are today. They are being valued for what the production economy needs them to be in 2028 and beyond.
That is what this portfolio is built on.
MY POSITIONING FROM HERE
I expect more volatile than consensus expects. Full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue. Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines.
The three forces above are not quarterly variables. They are decade-long structural shifts. Volatility between now and December is the mechanism that creates the next entry points or DCA opportunities.
YTD +55% long-term. +125% short-term.
And the cycle has barely started.
-BP
Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.
Show More
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.
2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.
3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.
4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.
5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.
6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.
7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.
8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.
9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.
10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.
11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.
12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Here's a full recap:
1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.
2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.
3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.
4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.
5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.
6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.
7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.
8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.
9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.
10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.
11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.
12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Show More
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here’s a full recap:
1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.
2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.
3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters.
4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.
5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."
6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.
7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.
8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.
9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K.
10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.
11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash
12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.
I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Here’s a full recap:
1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.
2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.
3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters.
4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.
5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."
6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.
7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.
8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.
9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K.
10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.
11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash
12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.
I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Show More
RT Serenity
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago.
To expand on domestic infra.
Implicit beneficiaries were:
Transmission & Advanced Conductors:
$AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics
$PLPC - advanced conductors
$ATKR - transmission components
$VMI - grid components
Power Electronics
$AEIS - power control electronics
$VICR - power delivery
Capacitor Banks
$VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks
Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers
$POWL - substations/switchgear
$AZZ - substations
Transformers
$HPS.A - My favorite for transformers
$SPXC - power transformers
Electrical Core Steel
$CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America?
This included:
-Transformers
- transmission components
- advanced conductors
- power electronics
- substations
- high-voltage circuit breakers
- protective relays, capacitor banks
- electrical core steel
TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing.
Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others.
There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.
Rumo: @aleabitoreddit Did you look into superconductor companies like $asmc yet?
Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago.
To expand on domestic infra.
Implicit beneficiaries were:
Transmission & Advanced Conductors:
$AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics
$PLPC - advanced conductors
$ATKR - transmission components
$VMI - grid components
Power Electronics
$AEIS - power control electronics
$VICR - power delivery
Capacitor Banks
$VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks
Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers
$POWL - substations/switchgear
$AZZ - substations
Transformers
$HPS.A - My favorite for transformers
$SPXC - power transformers
Electrical Core Steel
$CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America?
This included:
-Transformers
- transmission components
- advanced conductors
- power electronics
- substations
- high-voltage circuit breakers
- protective relays, capacitor banks
- electrical core steel
TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing.
Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others.
There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.
Rumo: @aleabitoreddit Did you look into superconductor companies like $asmc yet?
Show More
→ PORTFOLIO UPDATE & REFLECTIONS:
The numbers first.
YTD: +40% 1 Year: +157% Max: +129%
The $SPX is 'almost' flat on the year. The Nasdaq just snapped a 13-day winning streak. Markets are at all-time highs while Iran peace talks teeter on collapse and oil still moves on every headline.
I want to talk about what's actually happening.
THE LONG VIEW & WHERE THE US IS REALLY GOING:
This is the part most portfolio updates skip. They focus on the next quarter. I want to talk about the next decade, because that's what this portfolio is actually built on.
We are not in a normal market cycle. We are in the early innings of a genuine industrial transformation, the kind that only happens two or three times in a century.
Morgan Stanley calls it a "fast-moving innovation cycle on a global and historical scale." AI is no longer just a disruption theme. It's a strategic asset, central to economic competitiveness, military capability, and energy demand at a national level.
The parallel being drawn is the mid-1990s, where technological breakthroughs allowed for a prolonged period of growth without a recessionary hangover. For the first time in decades, US productivity growth is trending above 2.5%, largely because companies have successfully integrated AI into the workplace. This has created a buffer against inflation.
LPL Research is blunter about it: only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Surveys show over 92% plan to increase AI investment, meaning the productivity gains have barely started diffusing into the broader economy.
That's the setup. The market has been pricing the infrastructure phase. The economy is about to enter the productivity phase. And then the application phase after that.
I don't believe there a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies were burning cash on speculation. The companies driving this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real constraints. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. Shovels are in the ground.
And critically, it is not just America funding this.
The UAE has committed $1.4 trillion in US investment and is reaffirming that commitment even amid regional instability, with UAE entities already deploying capital into US-based digital infrastructure at scale. The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, formalised in Washington just weeks ago, is designed to secure global AI supply chains with the US at the centre.
Advanced technology and AI have become the newest pillar of the UAE-US relationship, built on a foundation of security and economic cooperation. The UAE describes this as a trillion-dollar relationship that drives real economic impact for everyday Americans.
This is foreign capital, sovereign wealth, and allied governments choosing the United States as the headquarters of the next industrial era. That's a structural thesis.
My thesis, plainly stated: The volatility you're seeing right now, war, politics, tariffs, rate uncertainty, is the turbulence at the beginning of a long flight.
The destination doesn't change because there's turbulence. The AI industrial cycle is a 10-year phase shift in how the global economy operates, and the US is its primary beneficiary. The companies that own the physical constraints of that phase shift; power, compute, infrastructure, defense autonomy are where the value compounds.
That is what this portfolio is built on.
Goldman Sachs has a 7,600 year-end target on the S&P 500. The reasoning is not hype, it's tethered to a 12% EPS growth forecast and an expectation that AI-driven productivity gains are finally hitting corporate bottom lines. They call 2026 the "Execution Phase." I agree. But I'd go further: 2026 is year two of a ten-year execution phase.
There are real risks. Elevated valuations, geopolitical escalation, FED policy uncertainty, none of these are trivial. The "Goldilocks" environment requires multiple variables staying in balance simultaneously. It will not be a straight line. There will be drawdowns. There will be moments that test conviction.
That's fine. That's where the edge is built.
WHERE THE MARKET IS LATE APRIL 2026:
The S&P 500 closed Monday at around $7,109. The Nasdaq ended its 13-day winning streak, its longest positive run since 1992. The Russell 2000 hit a new closing all-time high.
The market has recovered fully from its Iran conflict lows, roughly 11% off the bottom in under three weeks. Investors are signalling a collective belief that tensions resolve, Hormuz normalises, and the structural bull continues.
Analysts at Certuity are right to note that the market wasn't cheap before the conflict. Valuations, earnings potential, and FED policy are going to matter more than geopolitics over the next 6 months. Earnings season is the real test now. Q1 results will reveal which companies are converting AI infrastructure spend into margin expansion and which ones are still in the "spending" column.
My view for late April to September: choppier than the last 3 weeks, more volatile than consensus expects, and full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue.
HOW I'M PLAYING IT - LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO:
These are structural positions. Not trades. Each one sits on a specific physical or economic constraint that the AI industrial cycle cannot bypass. I'll hold and DCA.
$IREN: Power is the binding constraint of the entire AI buildout. $MSFT Contract. IREN controls 4.6GW of secured power infrastructure. Next earnings: May 13. I'm long and adding on any meaningful pullback.
$CIFR: Same thesis, adjacent scale. 3GW secured. The hyperscaler arms race didn't stop. This is infrastructure, not a crypto play. Still accumulating.
$NBIS: Nebius is building the AI cloud layer for Europe and emerging markets. Revenue is early. Infrastructure is going in now. This is a multi-year hold. Not touching it.
$AMPX: Battery storage is the invisible bottleneck in the autonomous supply chain. AMPX builds the solution. Patient, early, high conviction.
$PNG.V: Defense autonomy thesis. Undersized, underanalysed, positioned in programs with multi-decade budget commitment.
$RKLB: Rocket Lab is the only orbital launch competitor to SpaceX that has proven execution at scale. Electron is flying. Neutron is coming. Defense contracts are stacking. Still long.
$OUST: The sensor layer that makes autonomous systems possible. Defense, agriculture, logistics. The eyes of the machines being built right now. Still accumulating.
$ONDS: Raised 2026 guidance 25%. $65M backlog up 180% in 60 days. Trading below analyst target. Defense autonomy is not discretionary anymore. It's a locked-in multi-decade budget line. Still long.
$AAOI: Applied Optoelectronics makes the optical components inside every data center rack. Data center capex is crossing $1 trillion this year. The demand curve for $AAOI is not complicated. Adding on weakness.
$HIMS: The telehealth distribution layer. The market keeps treating this as a GLP-1 story. It's actually an access story, the infrastructure for healthcare delivery at scale. Patient.
Overall strategy: DCA into every position on 5-10% pullbacks. The only exit trigger is a broken thesis, not a lower price. Volatility between now and September is the mechanism that creates the next entry points.
SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$DARE: My conviction is higher in $SIVE, so I sold DARE with 40% profit.
$SIVE: Active swing position. Asymmetric setup with binary catalyst potential. Goal: 1-3x from entry. Taking profit in tranches as it moves. No ego about what it "could" do. Profit is profit. Swing. Take profit. Rotate.
The short-term book is a vehicle for compounding faster capital through high-conviction, catalyst-driven setups. Sizing is appropriate, if it goes to zero, the long-term portfolio doesn't notice. The discipline is in the exit, not the entry.
The process: identify the catalyst, enter the position, set the target, take profits on the way up. Rotate proceeds into the next setup or into the long-term portfolio on dips.
SUMMARY:
Markets are volatile. Geopolitics are messy. The near-term is uncertain.
None of that changes what I believe about the next decade.
AI-related investment increasingly resembles an industrial infrastructure cycle rather than speculative tech spending. Morgan Stanley estimates roughly $2.9 trillion in global data center construction costs through 2028 and expects AI-related investment to account for about 25% of incremental U.S. GDP growth this year.
The US is at the centre of this. Foreign sovereign capital is choosing the US as the host nation for the next industrial era. The physical constraints, power, compute, launch infrastructure, defense sensors are where the compounding happens.
That's not a 2-year trade. That's a 5-10-year thesis.
I'm not managing this portfolio for the next earnings cycle. I'm managing it for the decade.
YTD +40%. One year +157%. And the cycle has barely started.
Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines.
-BP
Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.
The numbers first.
YTD: +40% 1 Year: +157% Max: +129%
The $SPX is 'almost' flat on the year. The Nasdaq just snapped a 13-day winning streak. Markets are at all-time highs while Iran peace talks teeter on collapse and oil still moves on every headline.
I want to talk about what's actually happening.
THE LONG VIEW & WHERE THE US IS REALLY GOING:
This is the part most portfolio updates skip. They focus on the next quarter. I want to talk about the next decade, because that's what this portfolio is actually built on.
We are not in a normal market cycle. We are in the early innings of a genuine industrial transformation, the kind that only happens two or three times in a century.
Morgan Stanley calls it a "fast-moving innovation cycle on a global and historical scale." AI is no longer just a disruption theme. It's a strategic asset, central to economic competitiveness, military capability, and energy demand at a national level.
The parallel being drawn is the mid-1990s, where technological breakthroughs allowed for a prolonged period of growth without a recessionary hangover. For the first time in decades, US productivity growth is trending above 2.5%, largely because companies have successfully integrated AI into the workplace. This has created a buffer against inflation.
LPL Research is blunter about it: only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Surveys show over 92% plan to increase AI investment, meaning the productivity gains have barely started diffusing into the broader economy.
That's the setup. The market has been pricing the infrastructure phase. The economy is about to enter the productivity phase. And then the application phase after that.
I don't believe there a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies were burning cash on speculation. The companies driving this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real constraints. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. Shovels are in the ground.
And critically, it is not just America funding this.
The UAE has committed $1.4 trillion in US investment and is reaffirming that commitment even amid regional instability, with UAE entities already deploying capital into US-based digital infrastructure at scale. The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, formalised in Washington just weeks ago, is designed to secure global AI supply chains with the US at the centre.
Advanced technology and AI have become the newest pillar of the UAE-US relationship, built on a foundation of security and economic cooperation. The UAE describes this as a trillion-dollar relationship that drives real economic impact for everyday Americans.
This is foreign capital, sovereign wealth, and allied governments choosing the United States as the headquarters of the next industrial era. That's a structural thesis.
My thesis, plainly stated: The volatility you're seeing right now, war, politics, tariffs, rate uncertainty, is the turbulence at the beginning of a long flight.
The destination doesn't change because there's turbulence. The AI industrial cycle is a 10-year phase shift in how the global economy operates, and the US is its primary beneficiary. The companies that own the physical constraints of that phase shift; power, compute, infrastructure, defense autonomy are where the value compounds.
That is what this portfolio is built on.
Goldman Sachs has a 7,600 year-end target on the S&P 500. The reasoning is not hype, it's tethered to a 12% EPS growth forecast and an expectation that AI-driven productivity gains are finally hitting corporate bottom lines. They call 2026 the "Execution Phase." I agree. But I'd go further: 2026 is year two of a ten-year execution phase.
There are real risks. Elevated valuations, geopolitical escalation, FED policy uncertainty, none of these are trivial. The "Goldilocks" environment requires multiple variables staying in balance simultaneously. It will not be a straight line. There will be drawdowns. There will be moments that test conviction.
That's fine. That's where the edge is built.
WHERE THE MARKET IS LATE APRIL 2026:
The S&P 500 closed Monday at around $7,109. The Nasdaq ended its 13-day winning streak, its longest positive run since 1992. The Russell 2000 hit a new closing all-time high.
The market has recovered fully from its Iran conflict lows, roughly 11% off the bottom in under three weeks. Investors are signalling a collective belief that tensions resolve, Hormuz normalises, and the structural bull continues.
Analysts at Certuity are right to note that the market wasn't cheap before the conflict. Valuations, earnings potential, and FED policy are going to matter more than geopolitics over the next 6 months. Earnings season is the real test now. Q1 results will reveal which companies are converting AI infrastructure spend into margin expansion and which ones are still in the "spending" column.
My view for late April to September: choppier than the last 3 weeks, more volatile than consensus expects, and full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue.
HOW I'M PLAYING IT - LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO:
These are structural positions. Not trades. Each one sits on a specific physical or economic constraint that the AI industrial cycle cannot bypass. I'll hold and DCA.
$IREN: Power is the binding constraint of the entire AI buildout. $MSFT Contract. IREN controls 4.6GW of secured power infrastructure. Next earnings: May 13. I'm long and adding on any meaningful pullback.
$CIFR: Same thesis, adjacent scale. 3GW secured. The hyperscaler arms race didn't stop. This is infrastructure, not a crypto play. Still accumulating.
$NBIS: Nebius is building the AI cloud layer for Europe and emerging markets. Revenue is early. Infrastructure is going in now. This is a multi-year hold. Not touching it.
$AMPX: Battery storage is the invisible bottleneck in the autonomous supply chain. AMPX builds the solution. Patient, early, high conviction.
$PNG.V: Defense autonomy thesis. Undersized, underanalysed, positioned in programs with multi-decade budget commitment.
$RKLB: Rocket Lab is the only orbital launch competitor to SpaceX that has proven execution at scale. Electron is flying. Neutron is coming. Defense contracts are stacking. Still long.
$OUST: The sensor layer that makes autonomous systems possible. Defense, agriculture, logistics. The eyes of the machines being built right now. Still accumulating.
$ONDS: Raised 2026 guidance 25%. $65M backlog up 180% in 60 days. Trading below analyst target. Defense autonomy is not discretionary anymore. It's a locked-in multi-decade budget line. Still long.
$AAOI: Applied Optoelectronics makes the optical components inside every data center rack. Data center capex is crossing $1 trillion this year. The demand curve for $AAOI is not complicated. Adding on weakness.
$HIMS: The telehealth distribution layer. The market keeps treating this as a GLP-1 story. It's actually an access story, the infrastructure for healthcare delivery at scale. Patient.
Overall strategy: DCA into every position on 5-10% pullbacks. The only exit trigger is a broken thesis, not a lower price. Volatility between now and September is the mechanism that creates the next entry points.
SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$DARE: My conviction is higher in $SIVE, so I sold DARE with 40% profit.
$SIVE: Active swing position. Asymmetric setup with binary catalyst potential. Goal: 1-3x from entry. Taking profit in tranches as it moves. No ego about what it "could" do. Profit is profit. Swing. Take profit. Rotate.
The short-term book is a vehicle for compounding faster capital through high-conviction, catalyst-driven setups. Sizing is appropriate, if it goes to zero, the long-term portfolio doesn't notice. The discipline is in the exit, not the entry.
The process: identify the catalyst, enter the position, set the target, take profits on the way up. Rotate proceeds into the next setup or into the long-term portfolio on dips.
SUMMARY:
Markets are volatile. Geopolitics are messy. The near-term is uncertain.
None of that changes what I believe about the next decade.
AI-related investment increasingly resembles an industrial infrastructure cycle rather than speculative tech spending. Morgan Stanley estimates roughly $2.9 trillion in global data center construction costs through 2028 and expects AI-related investment to account for about 25% of incremental U.S. GDP growth this year.
The US is at the centre of this. Foreign sovereign capital is choosing the US as the host nation for the next industrial era. The physical constraints, power, compute, launch infrastructure, defense sensors are where the compounding happens.
That's not a 2-year trade. That's a 5-10-year thesis.
I'm not managing this portfolio for the next earnings cycle. I'm managing it for the decade.
YTD +40%. One year +157%. And the cycle has barely started.
Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines.
-BP
Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.
Show More
HOW I WILL PLAY THE NEXT MONTHS AND WHAT I EXPECT:
I want to touch on 5 important things:
1. First, I’m sad to see the lunch of $ASTS fail. I sold a while ago. “$Execution delays is a risks. Sold and took profit recently.”
Still saddens me to see.
2. I see a lot of new concerns on US/Iran. Here’s my take and how I will play it:
Overall I believe we have see the worst. I could be wrong. But usually when ceasefire and ‘talks’ have been somehow ongoing it’s very rare a full blown war will continue.
I expect some volatility short-term. I’ll be DCA’en through if it plays out.
Long-term I have NO concerns. US are on their way to a ‘goldilocks’ era. So many investments are being made INTO US.
I expect inflation to rise short-term. Fall afterwards towards the goldilock-era for US where AI infrastructure will play out and dominate.
Lastly. I see some concerns about ‘oh, but $SPY $SPX $QQQ are all back to ATH and topping.
Yes. But MAG7 is not topping. $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN are close to touching Octobers high. But recently. $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA are far from it.
Meaning the ‘top’ is not driven by small cap or MAG7.
But the middle-layer of $SPYx / SP500.
I’m not concerned. But expect more of a rotation to continue into risk-on - when US/Iran clears.
3. A couple of hours ago I released a FREE NEW extensive deep dive on $OUST. You should go read it.
4. I’m considering creating a FREE group-chat here on X. A community.
What I expect of the group:
This is not a buy/sell signal group.
But a group to connect with like-minded. Analyzing the market, sharing ideas, research, insights, learnings and Go deep on finding gems together.
There’s limited spots.
If you want to join. Comment: “YES.”
And just to be clear: I dont have a course or offer no paid services.
5. Based on 2) - I’ll sit tight in my long-term high conviction plays with ease and peace. Add on dips. Pure DCA.
Meanwhile I’ll soon open up my short-term account again and begin some short-term swing trades in the timeframe of less than
Black Panther Capital: → PORTFOLIO UPDATE & REFLECTIONS:
Here’s what have changed:
I used the recent volatility to take some profit and consolidate around my highest conviction names.
LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$IREN – 24.2%
$CIFR – 22.2%
$TE – 16.2%
$ONDS – 14.1%
$RKLB – 14.1%
$OSS – 9.1%
SHORT-TERM
I want to touch on 5 important things:
1. First, I’m sad to see the lunch of $ASTS fail. I sold a while ago. “$Execution delays is a risks. Sold and took profit recently.”
Still saddens me to see.
2. I see a lot of new concerns on US/Iran. Here’s my take and how I will play it:
Overall I believe we have see the worst. I could be wrong. But usually when ceasefire and ‘talks’ have been somehow ongoing it’s very rare a full blown war will continue.
I expect some volatility short-term. I’ll be DCA’en through if it plays out.
Long-term I have NO concerns. US are on their way to a ‘goldilocks’ era. So many investments are being made INTO US.
I expect inflation to rise short-term. Fall afterwards towards the goldilock-era for US where AI infrastructure will play out and dominate.
Lastly. I see some concerns about ‘oh, but $SPY $SPX $QQQ are all back to ATH and topping.
Yes. But MAG7 is not topping. $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN are close to touching Octobers high. But recently. $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA are far from it.
Meaning the ‘top’ is not driven by small cap or MAG7.
But the middle-layer of $SPYx / SP500.
I’m not concerned. But expect more of a rotation to continue into risk-on - when US/Iran clears.
3. A couple of hours ago I released a FREE NEW extensive deep dive on $OUST. You should go read it.
4. I’m considering creating a FREE group-chat here on X. A community.
What I expect of the group:
This is not a buy/sell signal group.
But a group to connect with like-minded. Analyzing the market, sharing ideas, research, insights, learnings and Go deep on finding gems together.
There’s limited spots.
If you want to join. Comment: “YES.”
And just to be clear: I dont have a course or offer no paid services.
5. Based on 2) - I’ll sit tight in my long-term high conviction plays with ease and peace. Add on dips. Pure DCA.
Meanwhile I’ll soon open up my short-term account again and begin some short-term swing trades in the timeframe of less than
Black Panther Capital: → PORTFOLIO UPDATE & REFLECTIONS:
Here’s what have changed:
I used the recent volatility to take some profit and consolidate around my highest conviction names.
LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$IREN – 24.2%
$CIFR – 22.2%
$TE – 16.2%
$ONDS – 14.1%
$RKLB – 14.1%
$OSS – 9.1%
SHORT-TERM
Show More
☠️ Cross of Death confirmed on $SPX.
Last 4 times this printed, the market bled.
20SMA just crossed below the 200SMA on $SPX.
Last 4 times this happened:
→ 2018: Market dropped another 15%
→ 2020: Market dropped another 20%
→ 2022: Market dropped another 25%
→ 2023: Market dropped another 12%
Every. Single. Time.
RSI is at 46. Not oversold at all.
That means more room to fall.
The (B) wave bounce is happening right now.
Don’t mistake it for a bottom.
The real bottom isn’t here yet.
-BP
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Last 4 times this printed, the market bled.
20SMA just crossed below the 200SMA on $SPX.
Last 4 times this happened:
→ 2018: Market dropped another 15%
→ 2020: Market dropped another 20%
→ 2022: Market dropped another 25%
→ 2023: Market dropped another 12%
Every. Single. Time.
RSI is at 46. Not oversold at all.
That means more room to fall.
The (B) wave bounce is happening right now.
Don’t mistake it for a bottom.
The real bottom isn’t here yet.
-BP
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Show More
🚨 I've been warning about this for weeks; a -20% drawdown. This is my last one.
I'm not a doom-poster. I don't do fear content.
This is just the most COMPLETE picture I can give you, and what I think the current situation means for the market.
This is my view. Not financial advice. Not a prediction.
Long-term? I'm still bullish.
Short-term? I see a legitimate path to a -20% drawdown from here. And I think most retail investors are not aware of the potential on-going RISKS.
Here's EVERYTHING you need to know:
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28 and the majority of people have NO IDEA what that actually means for the global economy.
Let me walk you through the math nobody's doing.
The Strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.
Through it flows:
→ 20M barrels/day of crude and refined products
→ 20% of ALL global petroleum consumption
→ 20% of the world's LNG, almost entirely Qatar/UAE
This isn't a regional disruption. This is a global circulatory system shutting down.
For context: the 1973 oil shock removed 4-6% of global supply from the market.
This one REMOVES nearly 20%.
Everyone says "Saudi Arabia has pipelines." True.
Here's what they don't tell you:
> Saudi Petroline: 3-5 mb/d spare capacity
> UAE ADCOP: 700k b/d spare capacity
> Total bypass capacity: 5.7 mb/d
Net shortfall: 14-16.5 MILLION barrels PER DAY.
There is NO REROUTING solution at this scale. None.
Brent was in the low $70s pre-conflict.
After February 28: +$20/bbl within a month. Briefly touched $120.
Current brokerage targets for Q2:
→ Goldman Sachs: $110
→ Morgan Stanley: $110 (rationing scenario)
→ Macquarie: $150+ if the Strait stays shut through April
WTI crossed $100 for the first time since July 2022.
If Brent stabilizes at $130-$150, the historical demand destruction level, headline CPI peaks near 3.8%.
At that point the Fed isn't cutting. It's hiking.
This is where it gets REALLY ugly.
Goldman Sachs has the numbers.
Here's what a 60-day closure does to US equities:
$SPX base case: 6,300 → 10% correction
$SPX severe case: 5,400 → 17-20% drawdown from RECENT peaks
The S&P already crossed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months.
That's not noise. That's a technical regime change.
And here's the historical precedent that should concern every tech holder:
Semis have experienced ~30% drawdowns during major oil price surges historically.
Several Magnificent 7 names are already down 10-20% from highs such as $MSFT $TSLA $META
Have in mind. I could be wrong. I'm only trying to provide the complete picture.
But in my opinion, we're not at the bottom, yet. We're at the technical inflection point.
IEA member countries released 400M barrels from emergency reserves to buffer the shock.
At a sustainable release rate of 4.4 mb/d, those buffers are projected to be exhausted by mid-April.
After that? No more cushion. Secondary price spike hits with NOTHING to absorb it.
Rate cuts are fully priced OUT of H1 2026. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both push the first cut to September or December at the earliest.
The Fed is frozen between an inflation spike and a deteriorating labor market.
That's the WORST possible backdrop for growth equities.
This isn't just an oil story.
The GCC exports:
→ 25% of global nitrogen fertilizers
→ 30% of the world's helium supply
→ 27% of global ammonia, 22% of phosphates, 45% of sulfur
Urea prices up 28% in three weeks. DAP/MAP above $700/MT.
Food inflation is coming, but it'll hit harvests in LATE 2026 and 2027. The market is not pricing this yet.
This is were inflation will begin to hike again, especially across the Eurozone.
Then there's helium. Qatar is a top global producer. Helium recovery is a byproduct of LNG processing.
No LNG throughput = helium shortage.
Helium is essential for advanced semiconductor lithography.
The entire AI buildout, from chip fabs like $NVDA to the infrastructure operators running on them like $IREN and $NBIS, has a Qatar helium dependency nobody mapped.
These cascading supply chain failures take 18+ months to resolve even if the Strait reopens tomorrow.
EVEN after this ends, the world that comes out the other side is different.
The Ras Laffan LNG complex lost 17% of Qatar's production capacity. Repair timeline: 3-5 years.
> Higher insurance premiums.
> Permanently elevated freight rates.
> Inventory buffers rebuilt everywhere.
> Semiconductor supply chains rerouted.
The Dallas Fed projects a sustained Q2 closure shaves at minimum 0.5 percentage points off US GDP, potentially pushing us toward stagnation.
This isn't a shock you trade through and forget.
Goldman's 5,400 scenario is live if we don't see resolution before the reserve buffer runs dry.
Mid-April is the deadline. Watch it closely.
I started investing in August 2024.
20 months in. Up 70% total.
YTD in one of the most brutal markets in years? -0.5%.
While a lot of portfolios are down 20-30% right now.
I'm not saying this to flex. I'm saying this because the whole point of this account is to think ahead of the market, not react to it.
Protecting capital in bad environments is just as important as finding the next 10-bagger.
If this thread gave you clarity, follow along. This is what I do every week.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
I'm not a doom-poster. I don't do fear content.
This is just the most COMPLETE picture I can give you, and what I think the current situation means for the market.
This is my view. Not financial advice. Not a prediction.
Long-term? I'm still bullish.
Short-term? I see a legitimate path to a -20% drawdown from here. And I think most retail investors are not aware of the potential on-going RISKS.
Here's EVERYTHING you need to know:
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28 and the majority of people have NO IDEA what that actually means for the global economy.
Let me walk you through the math nobody's doing.
The Strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.
Through it flows:
→ 20M barrels/day of crude and refined products
→ 20% of ALL global petroleum consumption
→ 20% of the world's LNG, almost entirely Qatar/UAE
This isn't a regional disruption. This is a global circulatory system shutting down.
For context: the 1973 oil shock removed 4-6% of global supply from the market.
This one REMOVES nearly 20%.
Everyone says "Saudi Arabia has pipelines." True.
Here's what they don't tell you:
> Saudi Petroline: 3-5 mb/d spare capacity
> UAE ADCOP: 700k b/d spare capacity
> Total bypass capacity: 5.7 mb/d
Net shortfall: 14-16.5 MILLION barrels PER DAY.
There is NO REROUTING solution at this scale. None.
Brent was in the low $70s pre-conflict.
After February 28: +$20/bbl within a month. Briefly touched $120.
Current brokerage targets for Q2:
→ Goldman Sachs: $110
→ Morgan Stanley: $110 (rationing scenario)
→ Macquarie: $150+ if the Strait stays shut through April
WTI crossed $100 for the first time since July 2022.
If Brent stabilizes at $130-$150, the historical demand destruction level, headline CPI peaks near 3.8%.
At that point the Fed isn't cutting. It's hiking.
This is where it gets REALLY ugly.
Goldman Sachs has the numbers.
Here's what a 60-day closure does to US equities:
$SPX base case: 6,300 → 10% correction
$SPX severe case: 5,400 → 17-20% drawdown from RECENT peaks
The S&P already crossed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months.
That's not noise. That's a technical regime change.
And here's the historical precedent that should concern every tech holder:
Semis have experienced ~30% drawdowns during major oil price surges historically.
Several Magnificent 7 names are already down 10-20% from highs such as $MSFT $TSLA $META
Have in mind. I could be wrong. I'm only trying to provide the complete picture.
But in my opinion, we're not at the bottom, yet. We're at the technical inflection point.
IEA member countries released 400M barrels from emergency reserves to buffer the shock.
At a sustainable release rate of 4.4 mb/d, those buffers are projected to be exhausted by mid-April.
After that? No more cushion. Secondary price spike hits with NOTHING to absorb it.
Rate cuts are fully priced OUT of H1 2026. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both push the first cut to September or December at the earliest.
The Fed is frozen between an inflation spike and a deteriorating labor market.
That's the WORST possible backdrop for growth equities.
This isn't just an oil story.
The GCC exports:
→ 25% of global nitrogen fertilizers
→ 30% of the world's helium supply
→ 27% of global ammonia, 22% of phosphates, 45% of sulfur
Urea prices up 28% in three weeks. DAP/MAP above $700/MT.
Food inflation is coming, but it'll hit harvests in LATE 2026 and 2027. The market is not pricing this yet.
This is were inflation will begin to hike again, especially across the Eurozone.
Then there's helium. Qatar is a top global producer. Helium recovery is a byproduct of LNG processing.
No LNG throughput = helium shortage.
Helium is essential for advanced semiconductor lithography.
The entire AI buildout, from chip fabs like $NVDA to the infrastructure operators running on them like $IREN and $NBIS, has a Qatar helium dependency nobody mapped.
These cascading supply chain failures take 18+ months to resolve even if the Strait reopens tomorrow.
EVEN after this ends, the world that comes out the other side is different.
The Ras Laffan LNG complex lost 17% of Qatar's production capacity. Repair timeline: 3-5 years.
> Higher insurance premiums.
> Permanently elevated freight rates.
> Inventory buffers rebuilt everywhere.
> Semiconductor supply chains rerouted.
The Dallas Fed projects a sustained Q2 closure shaves at minimum 0.5 percentage points off US GDP, potentially pushing us toward stagnation.
This isn't a shock you trade through and forget.
Goldman's 5,400 scenario is live if we don't see resolution before the reserve buffer runs dry.
Mid-April is the deadline. Watch it closely.
I started investing in August 2024.
20 months in. Up 70% total.
YTD in one of the most brutal markets in years? -0.5%.
While a lot of portfolios are down 20-30% right now.
I'm not saying this to flex. I'm saying this because the whole point of this account is to think ahead of the market, not react to it.
Protecting capital in bad environments is just as important as finding the next 10-bagger.
If this thread gave you clarity, follow along. This is what I do every week.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
Show More
🚨This one chart should make EVERY bull nervous.
Every time SPX RSI dropped below 50 during a major drawdown the market didn’t just bounce straight back.
It took time.
Look at the chart.
7 instances. Same pattern. Every. Single.
Time.
Right now RSI is sitting at 42.
Elliott Wave is showing a potential -20% to -30% total correction still playing out.
Wave (C) hasn’t even begun or finished.
I could be wrong. And if I’m, the I’m happy I’m still 80% in the market.
But I’m not ignoring what the chart is telling me.
Cash is still a position.
Patience is a strategy.
The opportunities are coming, and they’ll be obvious when they arrive.
-BP
Please note: This is NOT financial advice.
$SPX $IREN $ONDS $RKLB $NBIS
Every time SPX RSI dropped below 50 during a major drawdown the market didn’t just bounce straight back.
It took time.
Look at the chart.
7 instances. Same pattern. Every. Single.
Time.
Right now RSI is sitting at 42.
Elliott Wave is showing a potential -20% to -30% total correction still playing out.
Wave (C) hasn’t even begun or finished.
I could be wrong. And if I’m, the I’m happy I’m still 80% in the market.
But I’m not ignoring what the chart is telling me.
Cash is still a position.
Patience is a strategy.
The opportunities are coming, and they’ll be obvious when they arrive.
-BP
Please note: This is NOT financial advice.
$SPX $IREN $ONDS $RKLB $NBIS
Show More
🚨The market is lying to you right now.
This one chart should make EVERY bull nervous.
Every time SPX RSI dropped below 50 during a major drawdown the market didn’t just bounce straight back.
It took time.
Look at the chart.
7 instances. Same pattern. Every. Single.
Time.
Right now RSI is sitting at 42.
Elliott Wave is showing a potential -20% to -30% total correction still playing out.
Wave (C) hasn’t even begun or finished.
I could be wrong. And if I’m, the I’m happy I’m still 80% in the market.
But I’m not ignoring what the chart is telling me.
Cash is still a position.
Patience is a strategy.
The opportunities are coming, and they’ll be obvious when they arrive.
-BP
Please note: This is NOT financial advice.
$SPX $IREN $ONDS $RKLB $NBIS
This one chart should make EVERY bull nervous.
Every time SPX RSI dropped below 50 during a major drawdown the market didn’t just bounce straight back.
It took time.
Look at the chart.
7 instances. Same pattern. Every. Single.
Time.
Right now RSI is sitting at 42.
Elliott Wave is showing a potential -20% to -30% total correction still playing out.
Wave (C) hasn’t even begun or finished.
I could be wrong. And if I’m, the I’m happy I’m still 80% in the market.
But I’m not ignoring what the chart is telling me.
Cash is still a position.
Patience is a strategy.
The opportunities are coming, and they’ll be obvious when they arrive.
-BP
Please note: This is NOT financial advice.
$SPX $IREN $ONDS $RKLB $NBIS
Show More
I hope you were fast enough to trim in pre-market.
🚨Here’s the zones to watch out for.
$OSS → $6.03
$IREN → $33 or $21
$NBIS → $95 or $79
$CIFR → $11.47
$RKLB → $52
$AAOI → $69
$ONDS → $6.33
$AMPX → $13
$PNG.V → $7.38 or $5.78
As the market looks right now, these levels are into play in the first round here.
-BP
Note: This is not financial advice.
Black Panther Capital: Today is a good day for trimming.
The 5-wave cycle is locked in. $SPX is rolling over, and the RSI isn't lying. We’ve seen this movie in 2020 and 2022.
Wave (B): Dead cat bounce to 6,450–6,600 (The trap)
Wave (C): Final flush to the 4,800–5,200 green zone
Hope for a deal, but
🚨Here’s the zones to watch out for.
$OSS → $6.03
$IREN → $33 or $21
$NBIS → $95 or $79
$CIFR → $11.47
$RKLB → $52
$AAOI → $69
$ONDS → $6.33
$AMPX → $13
$PNG.V → $7.38 or $5.78
As the market looks right now, these levels are into play in the first round here.
-BP
Note: This is not financial advice.
Black Panther Capital: Today is a good day for trimming.
The 5-wave cycle is locked in. $SPX is rolling over, and the RSI isn't lying. We’ve seen this movie in 2020 and 2022.
Wave (B): Dead cat bounce to 6,450–6,600 (The trap)
Wave (C): Final flush to the 4,800–5,200 green zone
Hope for a deal, but
Show More
Today is a good day for trimming.
The 5-wave cycle is locked in. $SPX is rolling over, and the RSI isn't lying. We’ve seen this movie in 2020 and 2022.
Wave (B): Dead cat bounce to 6,450–6,600 (The trap)
Wave (C): Final flush to the 4,800–5,200 green zone
Hope for a deal, but prepare for the -20% leg.
I’m officially 20% cash.
Stay safe out there.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
$SPX $QQQ $SPY
The 5-wave cycle is locked in. $SPX is rolling over, and the RSI isn't lying. We’ve seen this movie in 2020 and 2022.
Wave (B): Dead cat bounce to 6,450–6,600 (The trap)
Wave (C): Final flush to the 4,800–5,200 green zone
Hope for a deal, but prepare for the -20% leg.
I’m officially 20% cash.
Stay safe out there.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
$SPX $QQQ $SPY
Show More
轉貼文章
來自 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2038333777592684809?s=46
2026年前59個交易日，標普500指數下跌7%，創下史上第14開局。
Charlie Bilello: The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX
來自 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2038333777592684809?s=46
2026年前59個交易日，標普500指數下跌7%，創下史上第14開局。
Charlie Bilello: The S&P 500 is down 7% in the first 59 trading days of 2026, the 14th worst start to a year in history. $SPX
It’s Sunday. Enjoy the peace for the next 24 hours before our portfolios and mental health get absolutely wrecked.
Rest in peace.
$NVDA $MSFT $META $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $ONDS $RKLB $ASTS $OSS $AAOI $AMPX $LITE $MU $HIMS $QQQ $SPX
Rest in peace.
$NVDA $MSFT $META $IREN $NBIS $CIFR $WULF $ONDS $RKLB $ASTS $OSS $AAOI $AMPX $LITE $MU $HIMS $QQQ $SPX
As ugly as this market has been, here's a pretty crazy statistic...
From Jan 1st to March 26th of this year, the S&P $SPX has had 29 out of 58 days close red. 50% of the year has been red and the index is down 4.2% YTD.
From Jan 1st to March 26th of 2025...
1. The S&P was down 10.2%, significantly worse than the current decline.
2. 61% of days, 35 out of 57, were red. 11% more than the 50% of red days this year.
As ugly as this market feels, likely because of the whiplash up and down based on the war headlines, last year was worse during the same time period.
Hopefully 2026 doesn't get as bad as 2025.
From Jan 1st to March 26th of this year, the S&P $SPX has had 29 out of 58 days close red. 50% of the year has been red and the index is down 4.2% YTD.
From Jan 1st to March 26th of 2025...
1. The S&P was down 10.2%, significantly worse than the current decline.
2. 61% of days, 35 out of 57, were red. 11% more than the 50% of red days this year.
As ugly as this market feels, likely because of the whiplash up and down based on the war headlines, last year was worse during the same time period.
Hopefully 2026 doesn't get as bad as 2025.
Show More
Tough market today? Here’s your comfort.
Triple witching today.
Stock options, index options, and index futures all expire at the same time.
Big players are FORCED to adjust positions at once.
That creates a lot of artificial movement on Friday.
Prices can get pulled toward certain levels.
Moves can look meaningful, but they’re often just mechanics.
Monday is different.
There’s no built-in direction.
It’s not bullish or bearish by default.
Here’s what actually changes:
1. Friday’s moves were driven by expiration. That pressure is gone.
2. Big players have adjusted positions. The playing field is clean again.
3. Volume and volatility usually drop after the spike on Friday.
4. If the market was stuck near certain levels, it can drift once that force is gone.
5. What matters now:
• volatility is still high
• many investors are positioned defensively
• macro uncertainty is still there
That can keep markets moving next week.
And this is the key:
Expiration does NOT create a trend.
It only moves price short term.
After that, direction comes from two things:
1. What is actually happening in the economy:
> interest rates
> inflation
> earnings
> growth expectations
If those are strong → buyers step in
If those are weak → sellers take control
2. How investors are already placed:
> heavily hedged → can push markets up
> overexposed long → can trigger selling
> dealer positioning → can amplify moves and volatility
So:
Friday = mechanical noise
Monday = real market
-BP
As always, please note this is not financial advice.
$SPX $QQQ
Triple witching today.
Stock options, index options, and index futures all expire at the same time.
Big players are FORCED to adjust positions at once.
That creates a lot of artificial movement on Friday.
Prices can get pulled toward certain levels.
Moves can look meaningful, but they’re often just mechanics.
Monday is different.
There’s no built-in direction.
It’s not bullish or bearish by default.
Here’s what actually changes:
1. Friday’s moves were driven by expiration. That pressure is gone.
2. Big players have adjusted positions. The playing field is clean again.
3. Volume and volatility usually drop after the spike on Friday.
4. If the market was stuck near certain levels, it can drift once that force is gone.
5. What matters now:
• volatility is still high
• many investors are positioned defensively
• macro uncertainty is still there
That can keep markets moving next week.
And this is the key:
Expiration does NOT create a trend.
It only moves price short term.
After that, direction comes from two things:
1. What is actually happening in the economy:
> interest rates
> inflation
> earnings
> growth expectations
If those are strong → buyers step in
If those are weak → sellers take control
2. How investors are already placed:
> heavily hedged → can push markets up
> overexposed long → can trigger selling
> dealer positioning → can amplify moves and volatility
So:
Friday = mechanical noise
Monday = real market
-BP
As always, please note this is not financial advice.
$SPX $QQQ
Show More
