I’ve finally pulled the trigger on a new position that I think is going to be a cornerstone of my holdings for the next decade.
I’m officially long $OUST (Ouster, Inc.).
If you’ve been following my "long-term trilogy"; $ONDS, $KRKNF, and $AMPX then you know my vibe.
I’m looking for companies that aren't just "tech stocks," but the actual backbone of the next industrial revolution.
I’ve added more to those three recently, and $OUST is joining them as a permanent fixture in the long-term bucket.
Here is the lowdown on why I’m so high on this one.
One of my favorite Peter Lynch rules is the "Mall Walk" test. Basically, if you can see a company’s products working in the real world, you’re onto something. With $OUST, it’s everywhere if you look:
Warehouse tech: Those autonomous forklifts and robots moving boxes? That’s often Ouster’s 3D vision.
Smart Cities: Ever see those sensor pods on traffic lights? They’re replacing those old-school wires in the asphalt to make intersections safer.
Security: High-end perimeter sensors that don't freak out every time a cat walks by? That’s Ouster’s "Gemini" software at work.
We talk a lot about AI in the digital sense (like ChatGPT), but "Physical AI" is where things get real. Machines need to "see" and "think" in 3D to move through our world. Ouster is the leader in Digital LiDAR.
While their competitors are mostly using "analog" tech (think vacuum tubes; clunky and expensive), Ouster has shrunk the tech onto two simple chips. It’s the same shift we saw from film cameras to digital. It’s cheaper, it’s smaller, and it scales way better.
When I look at who is actually using this tech, it’s a "who’s who" of heavy hitters. We aren't talking about speculative startups; we’re talking about +850 customers including:
> Retail/Logistics: $AMZN & $SERV
> Industrial Giants: $DE (John Deere)
> Government: NASA, US Army, US Navy, @anduriltech
If the Army and NASA trust your "eyes" to guide their hardware, you’ve probably got the best tech on the block.
Right now, the TAM is solid, $OUST sit on around 4% of the market, but we’re only scratching the surface of a +20% CAGR in the immediate sensing market. However, the future potential TAM is where the "tenbagger" potential lives. As we move toward fully autonomous shipping, port automation, and mass-market vehicle safety, the ceiling for LiDAR basically disappears.
If you look at the chart, $OUST has been beaten up lately. It’s down about 35% over the last six months.
The whole market is jittery about interest rates and oil.
They had a huge Q4, but some of it was a one-time royalty check. The "smart money" used that as an excuse to exit, but the actual product sales are still growing like crazy (shipped 25k+ units last year).
The company is debt-free with over $210M in cash. In Lynch terms: a company that has no debt can’t go bankrupt. They have a 7-year runway to just keep innovating even if the economy stays weird.
Final Thoughts
I’m treating $OUST just like my positions in $ONDS, $KRKNF, and $AMPX. This is a conviction play.
This case requires patience. It won’t go to the moon tomorrow. But with their tech advantage and customer base, I truly believe $OUST is a potential tenbagger over the next 5 to 10 years.
Stay patient, stay long.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
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