A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Anthropic is reportedly in early talks to rent Azure servers powered by Microsoft’s $MSFT Maia AI chips, per The Information. The move would further deepen Microsoft’s relationship with Anthropic, after Microsoft pledged up to $5B to the company, Anthropic committed $30B in Azure spending, and Microsoft began reselling Claude through Azure. The chip angle matters because Maia is being positioned as a lower-cost option than Nvidia’s $NVDA GPUs for certain inference workloads, rather than a replacement for frontier AI training. Anthropic already uses chips from Amazon $AMZN, Google $GOOGL, and Nvidia $NVDA, and Microsoft now wants Maia to become part of that mix.

2. Nvidia $NVDA PT's were raised across the street with the highest of $500 at Baird. The firm says Nvidia continues gaining market share in AI inferencing and across hyperscalers, while adoption of the upcoming Vera Rubin platform at frontier model companies is expected to exceed that of Blackwell. Baird also believes Vera’s standalone performance could significantly outperform traditional x86 CPUs, opening an additional $200B TAM opportunity for Nvidia, which already has visibility into nearly $20B in CPU revenue this year alone. Looking ahead, the firm expects annual AI infrastructure spending to grow from over $1T in 2027 to roughly $3–4T by 2030 as agentic AI proliferates across industries, while reiterating Nvidia as one of its top investment ideas.

3. U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 209,000, slightly below expectations of 210,000, signaling the labor market remains relatively stable.

4. OpenAI reportedly generated about $5.7B in Q1 revenue, roughly $1B ahead of Anthropic, per The Information. Anthropic could narrow that gap quickly, with its recent annualized revenue reportedly nearing $45B compared to OpenAI’s $25B annualized run rate in February. Anthropic is also projecting nearly $11B in Q2 revenue and about $600M in operating profit. OpenAI’s Q2 outlook was not reported, but The Information said growth has been supported by Codex, enterprise sales, ad tests, GPT-5.5, and image generation.

5. Walmart $WMT reported earnings this morning, with EPS of $0.66 coming in line with expectations and revenue of $177.8B beating estimates of $175B. Despite the revenue beat, the stock fell 7% after the company lowered guidance and warned it would raise prices on certain consumer goods.

6. Starbucks $SBUX has reportedly retired a worker-facing AI tool designed to automate inventory counts and help address product shortages, according to Reuters. The program was shut down this week, just nine months after being rolled out across North American stores.

7. A reported draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran has reportedly been reached through Pakistan-mediated talks, with an official announcement expected within hours. The deal is said to include an immediate comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, along with commitments from both sides not to target infrastructure. The agreement would also guarantee freedom of navigation through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz under a joint monitoring mechanism. In exchange for Iran’s compliance, sanctions would reportedly be gradually lifted, while negotiations on unresolved issues are expected to begin within seven days.

8. $AMD AMD announced more than $10B in investments across Taiwan’s ecosystem to expand advanced packaging capacity and accelerate next-generation AI infrastructure deployments. The company highlighted products ranging from its 6th Gen EPYC CPUs, codenamed “Venice,” to its Helios rack-scale AI platform featuring Instinct MI450X GPUs, with multi-gigawatt deployments expected to begin in the second half of 2026. AMD also said it reached another key production milestone with TSMC, as Venice EPYC CPUs are now ramping on TSMC’s 2nm process technology in Taiwan, with future plans to expand production to TSMC’s Arizona fabrication facilities.

9. The U.S. is preparing to award $2B to nine quantum companies through the CHIPS and Science Act while also taking minority equity stakes. IBM is expected to receive $1B, GlobalFoundries $375M, and other recipients including $QBTS D-Wave, $RGTI Rigetti, $INFQ Infleqtion, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, and Quantinuum are expected to receive $100M each. Diraq is expected to receive $38M. The deals would combine grants with government equity stakes, though they still need to be finalized.

10. The Pentagon is testing AI models from OpenAI, Google, and others as it looks for alternatives to Anthropic’s Claude, per Bloomberg. The tests began in March with 25 heavy users of the Defense Department’s AI tools across five military theater commands. The move follows Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth designating Anthropic as a supply-chain risk over its model guardrails, a designation Anthropic is now challenging in court. Claude is currently used heavily in the Pentagon’s Maven Smart System, including classified operations.

11. Oura, the maker of the popular smart ring, has reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO and plans to go public later this year, per Bloomberg. The company’s growth is the main story: revenue is expected to reach $1.5B in 2026, up from $500M in 2024, while total rings sold have climbed to 5.5M from 2.5M in mid-2024. Oura was last valued at $11B.

12. A Bank of America survey shows investors are increasingly worried the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates again. According to the survey, 14% of investors believe conditions for a hike are already in place, while 38% think the Fed would tighten policy if core inflation rises to 3.5%–4%, regardless of labor market strength. Overall, more than half of respondents see rate hikes as possible under certain inflation scenarios, reflecting renewed concern about persistent inflation pressure.

I will also be launching a product tomorrow morning at 10AM EST that I think many retail investors will enjoy. 100% free. See you then!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

大热板块中的二三线股票，表现往往好过冷门板块中的一线股票。

$IONQ $RGTI 于去年九月带领量子板块率先启动。随后该板块中存在感较低的股票也开始跟随大幅上涨，比如 $QUBT $LAES $QMCO

$MRVL $INTC 于今年三月底市场大跌后带领半导体板块反弹。随后该板块中业绩一般的股票也开始跟随大幅上涨，比如 $ON $NVTS $WOLF

近期 $RKLB 用一份几乎完美的 Q1 财报，配合 SpaceX 上市预期点燃的情绪面，带领太空板块率先启动。

如果这个逻辑继续成立，太空板块接下来值得重点关注的可能就不只是 $RKLB，而是整个板块的扩散机会。比如尚未充分启动的 $FLY $ASTS $LUNR

Sector before setup.

要回答美国会不会出兵保卫台湾？美国的战争为何而战？

为何投资美国？美国在AI时代有什么不同的价值？

甚至美国最大软肋在哪里？如果石油能源暴涨今天中东战争会不会拖垮世界经济和美国能否独善其身？

我百万流量文章，“中国人的财富和保命指南”只是一个思维的入口

看懂⬇️此文就能解答你所有困惑…

即便那时候不买什么半导体存储芯片 $SOXX 50% 涨幅，大盘ETF $QQQ 都18%了。

战略上的远见，远超战术上的忙碌和无知。

因此投资美国，投资AI，投资那些真正优秀、能创造长期价值的公司，并在合理的价格上有纪律地持有。

颗粒度更细和更update分析见订阅Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师: http://x.com/i/article/2030781906560942080

🚨THE BEARS HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR THREE YEARS.

And they’re about to be wrong again.

Morgan Stanley just raised their S&P 500 target to 8,300.

Year-end 2026 target: 8,000.
Twelve-month target: 8,300.

Over 12% upside from current levels around 7,400.

But here’s the line that matters most:

“Our bullish index view is an earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.”

Read that again.

EARNINGS.

> 83.2% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates.

> Morgan Stanley projects $339 EPS for 2026. That’s 23% growth, followed by $380 in 2027 and $429 in 2028.

A compounding earnings machine. Not a bubble.

Now let me show you what the bears keep getting wrong.

There’s a clip making the rounds right now.

A guy pulls up two charts side by side.

> Left chart: The dot-com era. Price ripping higher. Earnings flatlined. Pure narrative. Pure multiple expansion. Pure speculation.

> Right chart: Right now, 2023-2026. Earnings are LEADING price. AI and semiconductors are driving actual profits. Price is still CATCHING UP to the gray line.

His point? We’re not in a bubble. We’re in the middle of an earnings cycle that hasn’t fully repriced yet.

He’s right.

$MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix and Samsung, 75% of the $DRAM market are proof.

These are companies printing money faster than analysts can revise targets upward.

> The memory supercycle isn’t priced in.

> The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t priced in.

The earnings are real and the multiples are still compressing INTO the growth.

The dot-com bubble was speculation in search of earnings.

This is earnings in search of a price that can catch up.

There’s a massive difference.

So where does the money go?

$SPY and $QQQ as a passive bet + into the infrastructure that’s CAUSING the earnings surge.

Here’s where I’m positioned:

→ $IREN
→ $NBIS
→ $CIFR
→ $AAOI
→ $SIVE
→ $RKLB
→ $OUST
→ $PENG
→ $ONDS
→ $KRKNF

Every single one of these names sits inside the structural AI buildout that’s driving the future earnings Morgan Stanley just upgraded their entire index outlook for.

HERE’S THE MACRO SETUP

Morgan Stanley explicitly ties their revised outlook to AI adoption enhancing operating leverage across the S&P 500 and a rolling earnings recovery that continues to progress.

This isn’t a macro call. This is a capital allocation call.

The earnings cycle is real.
The infrastructure buildout is real.
The defense spending acceleration is real.

$QQQ and $SPY tell you the tide is coming in.

The names above tell you which boats rise the most.

The dot-com bubble was price without earnings.

This is earnings without price.

The gray line hasn’t been touched yet.

We’re mid-cycle. Act accordingly.

Still long. Still adding. Still building.

-BP

Please remember: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold positions in many of the names mentioned.

Micro2Macr0: Why this Is NOTHING Like the Dot-Com Bubble!!! 😡

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.

2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.

3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.

4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.

5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.

6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.

7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.

8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.

9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.

10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.

11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.

12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here’s a full recap:

1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.

2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.

3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters.

4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.

5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."

6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.

7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.

8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.

9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K.

10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.

11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash

12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.

I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.