A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Anthropic is reportedly in early talks to rent Azure servers powered by Microsoft’s $MSFT Maia AI chips, per The Information. The move would further deepen Microsoft’s relationship with Anthropic, after Microsoft pledged up to $5B to the company, Anthropic committed $30B in Azure spending, and Microsoft began reselling Claude through Azure. The chip angle matters because Maia is being positioned as a lower-cost option than Nvidia’s $NVDA GPUs for certain inference workloads, rather than a replacement for frontier AI training. Anthropic already uses chips from Amazon $AMZN, Google $GOOGL, and Nvidia $NVDA, and Microsoft now wants Maia to become part of that mix.

2. Nvidia $NVDA PT's were raised across the street with the highest of $500 at Baird. The firm says Nvidia continues gaining market share in AI inferencing and across hyperscalers, while adoption of the upcoming Vera Rubin platform at frontier model companies is expected to exceed that of Blackwell. Baird also believes Vera’s standalone performance could significantly outperform traditional x86 CPUs, opening an additional $200B TAM opportunity for Nvidia, which already has visibility into nearly $20B in CPU revenue this year alone. Looking ahead, the firm expects annual AI infrastructure spending to grow from over $1T in 2027 to roughly $3–4T by 2030 as agentic AI proliferates across industries, while reiterating Nvidia as one of its top investment ideas.

3. U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 209,000, slightly below expectations of 210,000, signaling the labor market remains relatively stable.

4. OpenAI reportedly generated about $5.7B in Q1 revenue, roughly $1B ahead of Anthropic, per The Information. Anthropic could narrow that gap quickly, with its recent annualized revenue reportedly nearing $45B compared to OpenAI’s $25B annualized run rate in February. Anthropic is also projecting nearly $11B in Q2 revenue and about $600M in operating profit. OpenAI’s Q2 outlook was not reported, but The Information said growth has been supported by Codex, enterprise sales, ad tests, GPT-5.5, and image generation.

5. Walmart $WMT reported earnings this morning, with EPS of $0.66 coming in line with expectations and revenue of $177.8B beating estimates of $175B. Despite the revenue beat, the stock fell 7% after the company lowered guidance and warned it would raise prices on certain consumer goods.

6. Starbucks $SBUX has reportedly retired a worker-facing AI tool designed to automate inventory counts and help address product shortages, according to Reuters. The program was shut down this week, just nine months after being rolled out across North American stores.

7. A reported draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran has reportedly been reached through Pakistan-mediated talks, with an official announcement expected within hours. The deal is said to include an immediate comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, along with commitments from both sides not to target infrastructure. The agreement would also guarantee freedom of navigation through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz under a joint monitoring mechanism. In exchange for Iran’s compliance, sanctions would reportedly be gradually lifted, while negotiations on unresolved issues are expected to begin within seven days.

8. $AMD AMD announced more than $10B in investments across Taiwan’s ecosystem to expand advanced packaging capacity and accelerate next-generation AI infrastructure deployments. The company highlighted products ranging from its 6th Gen EPYC CPUs, codenamed “Venice,” to its Helios rack-scale AI platform featuring Instinct MI450X GPUs, with multi-gigawatt deployments expected to begin in the second half of 2026. AMD also said it reached another key production milestone with TSMC, as Venice EPYC CPUs are now ramping on TSMC’s 2nm process technology in Taiwan, with future plans to expand production to TSMC’s Arizona fabrication facilities.

9. The U.S. is preparing to award $2B to nine quantum companies through the CHIPS and Science Act while also taking minority equity stakes. IBM is expected to receive $1B, GlobalFoundries $375M, and other recipients including $QBTS D-Wave, $RGTI Rigetti, $INFQ Infleqtion, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, and Quantinuum are expected to receive $100M each. Diraq is expected to receive $38M. The deals would combine grants with government equity stakes, though they still need to be finalized.

10. The Pentagon is testing AI models from OpenAI, Google, and others as it looks for alternatives to Anthropic’s Claude, per Bloomberg. The tests began in March with 25 heavy users of the Defense Department’s AI tools across five military theater commands. The move follows Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth designating Anthropic as a supply-chain risk over its model guardrails, a designation Anthropic is now challenging in court. Claude is currently used heavily in the Pentagon’s Maven Smart System, including classified operations.

11. Oura, the maker of the popular smart ring, has reportedly filed confidentially for an IPO and plans to go public later this year, per Bloomberg. The company’s growth is the main story: revenue is expected to reach $1.5B in 2026, up from $500M in 2024, while total rings sold have climbed to 5.5M from 2.5M in mid-2024. Oura was last valued at $11B.

12. A Bank of America survey shows investors are increasingly worried the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates again. According to the survey, 14% of investors believe conditions for a hike are already in place, while 38% think the Fed would tighten policy if core inflation rises to 3.5%–4%, regardless of labor market strength. Overall, more than half of respondents see rate hikes as possible under certain inflation scenarios, reflecting renewed concern about persistent inflation pressure.

I will also be launching a product tomorrow morning at 10AM EST that I think many retail investors will enjoy. 100% free. See you then!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

🚨Leopolds 13F is out now:

It’s obvious that data centers, AI and energy is still the theme here.

With AI Datacenters as the core theme:

He added to $IREN $KEEL $CLSK $APLD $CRWV

Stay patience. Know what you hold.

-BP

Not financial advice.Wall St Engine: Leopold’s Situational Awareness 13F is out.

New positions include $TE, $HIVE, $SHAZ, $INTC, $AMD, $SMH, $TSM, $MU, $GLW, $ASML and $NVDA

Added to $KEEL, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $APLD, $BTDR, $CRWV and $SNDK.

Trimmed $SEI, $CORZ and $BE.

Exited $COHR, $LBRT, $TSEM, $HUT, $LITE,

Renaissance Technologies (founded by Jim Simons) Q1 2026 13F

買入最多的股票：
$AAPL：+7.81 億美元
$NVDA：+2.78 億美元
$LIN：+2.58 億美元
$AVGO：+2.45 億美元
$AGI：+2.27 億美元
$JPM：+2.02 億美元

賣出最多的股票（約）：
$NFLX：-6.73 億美元
$PLTR：-5.42 億美元
$TSLA：-5.34 億美元
$PG：-4.28 億美元
$COST：-5.78 億美元
$MSFT：-3.29億美元
看來他們正在轉向大型科技股、能源股和黃金股，同時減持消費股和動量股。

Brad Gerstner 的 Altimeter 提交 2026 Q1 13F 報告

大幅買進了以下股票：
$NVDA
$CRWV
$UBER

賣出了以下股票：
$MELI
$GOOGL
$CPNG

前五大持股（共 13 股）：
1. $NVDA 28.57%
2. $META 19.61%
3. $UBER 10.06%
4. $TSM 8.10%
5. $MSFT 7.69%

- 買入最多的股票：
$ARM
$NVDA
$UBER
$CRWV
$AXON

- 賣出最多的股票：
$CPNG
$CFLT
$GOOGL
$Z
$MELI

- 新增最多的持股：
$ARM
$AXON

Weekly prediction(s) recap:

$NVDA to $225 ✅
- Ran to $236.54 (+10%)

$TSLA to $450 ✅
- Ran to $453.40 (+7%)

$NOW to $100 ❌
- Ran to $96.67 (+6%)

$AMAT to $450 ❌
- Ran to $448.45 (-2%)

$ZS to $165 ❌
- Ran to $162.73 (+9%)

Overall I'm happy with my trades and predictions for the week. Have a great weekend friends!

RonnieV: Weekly prediction(s):

$NVDA to $225
$TSLA to $450
$NOW to $100
$AMAT to $450
$ZS to $165

🔮

$308 million in integrated memory revenue. First half of fiscal 2026.

Same window, a year ago: $201 million.
$PENG didn’t just grow a segment.

It rotated the ENTIRE business.

The market has been pricing this as a hardware integrator in managed decline and the top-line supports that read.

Revenue down 6% year-on-year last quarter.

Advanced Computing collapsed 42%. Hyperscale hardware, exited.

That framing is not wrong. It’s just looking at the half of the business that’s shrinking.

The other half is a DIFFERENT picture.

> Integrated memory: $308 million in H1 FY2026, up 53% year-on-year.

> Per the Q2 FY2026 8-K filed April 1: that segment now represents 45% of total company revenue.

The market has been pricing the decline.

The data from this week describes something else.

In March, at $NVDA GTC, Penguin launched the MemoryAI KV Cache server.
Per the Q2 earnings transcript: the first production-ready CXL-based KV cache server commercially available.

11 TB of memory per node. 10x faster than NVMe-based caching.

A Tier 1 financial institution has already deployed it.

CXL competitors; SK Hynix, Astera Labs have demonstrated components.

Penguin shipped a turnkey system.

That is not the same category.

Tuesday this week, Penguin disclosed AI-driven revenue now exceeds 60% of total first-half sales.

Up from roughly 40% a year prior.

Full-year guidance raised to 12% growth at the midpoint.

Non-GAAP EPS to $2.15.

Per the 8-K: $489 million in cash and short-term investments.

No major debt maturities until 2029.

Most people are still looking at $PENG and seeing a declining systems integrator navigating a messy transition.

But when you look at 53% integrated memory growth, a first-mover CXL inference product with a live Tier 1 deployment, and AI revenue crossing 60% of the business…

It’s interesting how those three things point at the same thing.

The data is starting to describe a different kind of company.

When more of the inference deployment cycle comes into view, I’ll post it here.

-BP

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $CBRS Cerebras opened about 75% above its expected IPO price of $185, giving the AI chip company a roughly $100B market cap despite generating $585M in revenue last year. Ark Invest also bought 105,616 shares just one day after the IPO, adding more attention to the name. The momentum is set to continue with LeverageShares launching a 2x leveraged Cerebras ETF tomorrow morning.

2. President Trump submitted his latest stock purchase and sale disclosures to the White House Office of Ethics, with the filing reportedly spanning more than 100 pages and including thousands of trades. The disclosure is notable because it shows a sitting president actively trading individual securities rather than only holding assets like corporate debt, index funds, or Treasuries. Some of the names listed as purchases include $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN, and $RKLB.

3. The U.S. has approved around 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s $NVDA H200, the company’s second-most powerful AI chip. Nvidia hit an all time high at $240 today.

4.Figure AI has been livestreaming its humanoid robots performing real warehouse-style package sorting tasks using its Helix-02 AI system. The robots pick up, scan, rotate, and place packages onto conveyor belts autonomously while operating for extremely long periods, including a reported 24/7 run after initially targeting an 8-hour shift. The livestream is meant to prove that humanoid robots can handle repetitive labor reliably and economically, rather than just perform flashy demos. Many viewers see it as one of the first convincing demonstrations of commercially viable humanoid labor, especially for warehouses and logistics. The robot has so far dealt with 34K packages live and has reached parity with a human worker that can do 3 every second.

5. The most traded stocks in the options market today were $NVDA with 5.0M contracts, $TSLA with 2.5M, $NOK with 889K, $F with 860K, $ONDS with 849K, $INTC with 814K, $AAPL with 752K, $MSFT with 736K, $MSTR with 670K, and $MU with 644K.

6. Semiconductor leverage flows surged, with $SOXL, the 3x long semiconductor ETF, taking in a record $1.03B on Tuesday. At the same time, $SOXS, the 3x short semiconductor ETF, saw $230M of outflows, its largest daily withdrawal since late March. $TQQQ also added $161M, its biggest inflow since March 31, but $SOXL inflows were more than 6x larger as traders concentrated bullish exposure in semiconductors. Since the March 30 bottom, $SOXL is up 354%, its strongest 31-day gain since launching in 2010, while the $SOX semiconductor index is up 68%, its third-best 31-day run on record.

7. Retail investors are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in years. Year-to-date retail equity inflows are ahead of every comparable period over the last seven years except 2021, and after slowing briefly in March, retail buying jumped sharply in April. The week ending May 1 ranked in the top 2% of weekly retail inflows since 2019, and at the current pace, individual investor purchases could surpass the 2021 record as soon as July. Retail options activity is also elevated, with average daily volume now at 1.57x January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 peak.

8. SpaceX could release its IPO prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC, after confidentially filing in April. The company’s roadshow is expected to start June 8, with SpaceX reportedly targeting one of the largest public offerings ever following its merger with xAI at a combined $1.25T valuation. The IPO could raise around $70B-$75B, which would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

9. AI data center demand is putting pressure on power costs across PJM, the largest U.S. grid, which serves 67M people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Wholesale power prices averaged $136.53/MWh in Q1 2026, up 75.5% from $77.78/MWh a year ago. Capacity costs rose 398.1% year-over-year, while congestion costs increased 300.4% to $2B.

10. Tech layoffs have now passed 100,000 in 2026, with TNW reporting cuts across roughly 250 events this year. LinkedIn is reducing headcount by about 5% despite 12% revenue growth, while Cloudflare is cutting more than 1,100 roles, or about 20% of its workforce. AI is becoming a major driver of the reset, with Challenger citing it as the top reason for job cuts in both March and April and linking AI to 49,135 announced layoffs so far this year.

11. President Trump said President Xi told him China will not supply military equipment to Iran and supports a peace agreement. Trump also said Xi offered to help mediate the situation and work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil flows.

12. The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee today in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill would create clearer federal rules for crypto, including when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. Crypto stocks rallied on the news, including Coinbase, as investors viewed it as a major step toward regulatory certainty. The bill still is not law and needs full Senate approval, House reconciliation, and final passage. The main fights now are over stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering rules, and ethics concerns tied to political figures profiting from crypto. $BTC Bitcoin passed $81,000.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A year ago, I called Nvidia the literal bargaining chip in US-China trade.

Today the thesis is no longer mine alone.

@AnthropicAI just published "2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership" arguing compute is the entire game. Close the smuggling loopholes, kill distillation attacks, lock in a 12-24 month US lead.

Same day, Reuters: US Commerce approved H200 sales to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, http://JD.com. Up to 75,000 chips each. Lenovo and Foxconn cleared as distributors.

Jensen is in China this week trying to convert paper approvals into actual deliveries.

The math:

China was 13% of Nvidia revenue ($17B in FY25).

Jensen at GTC: "$50B opportunity in 2025 alone, growing 50% annually."

To CNBC in October: "a couple hundred billion by the end of the decade."

That's the prize. But the prize is not just the revenue. It's the CUDA lock-in.

On Dwarkesh in April, Jensen said the moat is not the silicon. The moat is the install base. Every cloud. Every robot. Every developer trained on CUDA. If China spins up on Huawei Ascend, that is a parallel stack that compounds against Nvidia forever.

Concede the second largest compute market, you concede the ecosystem.

This is why Jensen got visibly agitated when Dwarkesh pushed. "You are not talking to somebody who woke up a loser."

It is also why Beijing is slow-walking the H200 orders. They understand the same thing in reverse. Every CUDA developer is a Huawei customer they will never get back.

The bargaining chip is leverage in both directions.

Anthropic's policy paper today is the US position. Jensen's posture is the corporate position. Beijing's go-slow is the Chinese position. All three agree on one thing: whoever owns the compute, owns the future.

Memory Wars. Co-Design. The Reasoning Tax. All downstream of this.

Compute is the unit of national power in the AI era.

$NVDA

NVIDIA cleared to ship H100s into China today.

I said 4/19

“The export-control debate is framed around denial rather than standards capture. The day DeepSeek ships on Huawei not CUDA is the day the standard drifts.”

Today: standards > sanctions. $NVDA
https://open.substack.com/pub/bepresearch/p/the-chip-is-dead-long-live-the-factory

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SUBMITTED HIS STOCK PURCHASES/SALES TO THE WHITE HOUSE OFFICE OF ETHICS.

The document is over 100 pages and has thousands of trades.

This is one of the first times we've seen a sitting President actively trade securities and not just sit in corporate debt, index funds, or treasuries.

Here are some of the names that Trump bought:

$PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN.