Bill Ackman 抄底了 $MSFT 和 $META 。过去 $GOOG 和 $AMZN 都取得了不错的收益（虽然较之于半导体并没有特别强）。

其实我想说的是，抄底美国这些基本面极强的大公司是不可能输的。 $MSFT 和 $META 再怎么逆风都是印钞机，只是他们不会是最强的股票，但是他们是最稳健，你觉得一个每年赚七八百亿美元股票，每年增速那么快，每年回购，股票有可能一直跌吗？

我的长期仓位里面是包含着两个股票的， $MSFT 是最近加入的, 390建仓， $META 则一直持有。

但是有人肯定会说，$MSFT和$META 如何如何拉垮，$MU 和 $SNDK 涨得多么多么的厉害，让人买 $MSFT 就是反指。

这取决于你的目的，如果你的目的是储存财富，那我觉得买 $MSFT 和 $META 就没问题，因为他们在创造财富，他们大二不倒，他们持续增长。放在几年的尺度，十年尺度，他们的风险几乎为0。这不是我的观点，是无数养老基金和主权基金的观点，因为他们愿意买他们几十年的企业债。

而暴涨的股票永远都是博弈，确实会有些股票会因为基本面完全改善而一飞冲天，但是收益越高，风险越大，你想要几倍的收益就要做好腰斩的准备。这是不同的目的。

Noah: JUST IN:

Bill Ackman is buying the big tech dip

In 2022 he called:
$GOOGL at $90→ +300%

In 2025 he called:
$AMZN at $170→ +65%

Now he’s giving you:
$MSFT at $410
$META at $620

Are you going to miss out again?

Brad Gerstner 的 Altimeter 提交 2026 Q1 13F 報告

大幅買進了以下股票：
$NVDA
$CRWV
$UBER

賣出了以下股票：
$MELI
$GOOGL
$CPNG

前五大持股（共 13 股）：
1. $NVDA 28.57%
2. $META 19.61%
3. $UBER 10.06%
4. $TSM 8.10%
5. $MSFT 7.69%

- 買入最多的股票：
$ARM
$NVDA
$UBER
$CRWV
$AXON

- 賣出最多的股票：
$CPNG
$CFLT
$GOOGL
$Z
$MELI

- 新增最多的持股：
$ARM
$AXON

So Ackman buys Microsoft…

I know the picks and shovels plays of the AI buildout are getting all the attention, but it does feel like you could open a brokerage account…

Buy $META and $MSFT…

And just not look at it for the next few years and be fine.

These companies are trading at historic discounts due to “Meta cannot do anything other than Ads” and “Microsoft is a software play so software should go down.”

They will not provide the same short term alpha but these are two of the greatest companies on the planet…doesn’t feel that scary taking a shot on them here.

RT Investing visuals
The AI data center bottlenecks map & key players:

Demand:
• $MSFT
• $GOOGL
• $META
• $AMZN
• Leading LLM providers

Layer 1 - Systems & colocation:
• $DELL
• $HPQ
• $SMCI
• $EQIX
• $DLR

Layer 2A - Memory:
• $MU
• $HYNSE
• $SMSD

Layer 2B - Networking & optics:
• $AVGO
• $COHR
• $MRVL

Layer 2C - Power & cooling:
• $VRT
• $ETN
• $BE

Layer 3 - In-rack connectivity:
• $AVGO
• $ALAB
• $CRDO

Layer 4 - Foundry & packaging:
• $INTC
• $ASX
• $TSM
• $AMCR

Layer 5 - Semiconductor equipment:
• $ASML
• $AMAT
• $LRCX
• $KLAC

Note that this isn't an exhaustive list, but rather an overview of the most important businesses per segment.

I hope you found this breakdown insightful!

I've covered the supply chain in more detail in the article linked below.

Investing visuals: I just published my latest research article: The AI data center bottlenecks map, covering:

• The AI supply chain
• The key players at critical bottlenecks
• Where to look as constraints move down the supply chain

I loved diving into this over the past few weeks with the goal

RT Patient Investor
Stocks with 20%+ ROIC trading below 20x earnings:

1. Meta $META:
ROIC: 28%
PE: 18x

2. Adobe $ADBE:
ROIC: 49%
PE: 10x

3. Booking $BKNG:
ROIC: 56%
PE: 14x

4. Copart $CPRT:
ROIC: 25%
PE: 19x

5. McDonald's $MCD:
ROIC: 28%
PE: 19x

6. Home Depot $HD:
ROIC: 25%
PE: 19x

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here’s a full recap:

1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.

2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.

3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters.

4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.

5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."

6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.

7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.

8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.

9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K.

10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.

11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash

12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.

I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Tokens Eat Software.

Five internet CEOs flagged AI inference costs on Q1 calls. Same quarter. Unprompted.

$META: $33.4B in expenses, third-party cloud spend
$SHOP: scale efficiencies "partially offset by increased LLM costs"
$SPOT: "spending more compute per employee"
$PINS: cost of revenue +20%, GPU capacity guided as 2026 margin headwind
$ROKU: "watching it carefully"

In The Token Dollar I argued every AI-native software company is a token reseller. They buy compute at wholesale, add workflow, and sell tokens at retail. Their gross margin is the spread.

That spread just got smaller in five places at once.

Tokens are no longer an R&D line item. They are a cost-of-revenue line item.

Vertical SaaS with proprietary data passes the cost through. Horizontal SaaS with commodity workflows eats it. Watch the divergence over the next two cycles.

http://bepresearch.substack.com/p/the-token-dollar

RT The Kobeissi Letter
Tech layoffs are skyrocketing:

Tech companies announced 81,747 layoffs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly total since at least Q1 2024.

Layoffs have more than DOUBLED from the previous quarter and have risen +580% since Q4 2025.

March alone saw 45,800 announced job cuts, the worst single month for tech layoffs in at least 2 years.

Tech layoffs are set to remain elevated with Meta's, $META, recent plans to cut ~8,000 employees.

Furthermore, Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering voluntary retirement to ~7% of its US workforce, which could transition into layoffs if participation is low.

This comes as tech giants shift spending toward AI chips and data centers, trimming staff to free up capital for infrastructure.

US tech employment is rapidly contracting.