我前两天看到一个数据，挺震撼的。🧐

Anthropic最新一轮融资，估值谈到了9600亿美金。这什么概念？比AI老大哥OpenAI还高，它目前为8520亿美金。

但您猜怎么着，这种级别的Pre-IPO份额，以前咱们散户连门都摸不着。人家VC随便验个资，起步就是千万美金，咱们这种小散户，只能在二级市场追涨杀跌，给量化和做市商当韭菜割。

直到我3月份在MSX麦通上了 #Cerebras 的车。

这个故事昨天讲过，当时申购价是100.35美金，我也没想太多，就是觉得这事儿挺新鲜的，10U起就能参与Pre-IPO，这在以前根本不可能。我就试着丢了点仓位进去。

结果大家都知道了，5月14号 $CBRS 上市那天，我整个人都懵了。👇

• IPO定价185美金
• 开盘直接350美金起跳，盘中最高冲到380

我手里那份额，2个月不到，账面上接近4倍。更关键的是，真的退出来了，钱也到账了。这不是画饼，这是实打实的闭环。

这事儿给我最大的感触是什么？

以前我在券商干过，见过太多所谓的"内部额度"、"原始股机会"，最后不是锁死就是跑路。但MSX这次，人家3个月后真的能按公允价格赎回，流动性是有保障的。这个对咱们散户来说，太重要了。

今天5月16号，MSX二期Pre-IPO又开了，这次上线两个标的，我自己研究完，觉得值得跟大家聊聊。

第一个，#Anthropic(历史估值看👇图3)。

很多人只知道它家的Claude聊天机器人，以为仅仅是ChatGPT的竞争对手。

错了。

这次Anthropic估值超过OpenAI，其实他们本质定位是有差异的，它现在真正在做的事，是给全球大企业批量生产"数字员工"。写代码、修bug、搭系统、跑自动化流程，这些以前要雇一堆程序员干的活，现在AI全包了。

你想想看，这才是AI最值钱的地方，不是陪你聊天，是替你打工。

• 最新估值在9000亿到9600亿美金之间
• 彭博社放风最快10月IPO
• MSX申购价855 USDT

说白了，这可能是咱们普通人最后一次能用相对便宜的价格，拿到这种万亿级公司"原始股"的机会了。

第二个，#Polymarket(历史估值看👇图4)。

币圈老熟人了，但很多人没看懂它的野心有多大。

它不是个简单的预测市场，它想干的事是把全世界所有的现实事件，全部变成可交易的金融资产。政治选举、体育赛事、经济数据、甚至某家公司什么时候上市，全都能做成合约来交易。

我给您看个数据你就明白了：

• 竞品Kalshi估值已经220亿美金
• Polymarket现在谈的估值才150亿美金
• 中间这70亿美金的估值差，就是咱们的安全垫
• MSX申购价152 USDT

你看看，同样的赛道，人家已经炒到220亿了，Polymarket才150亿，这中间的空间有多大？

为什么我这次还选MSX？

很简单，因为它是全球最早做美股代币化链上交易的平台之一，一直在推着这个行业往前走。

最关键的是，它把原本高不可攀的一级市场，拆成了咱们普通人也能玩得起的入口：

• 10 USDT起就能参与，不是千万美金起步
• 3个月后可以按市场价赎回，不会把钱锁死
• 费用全部透明，在最后结算时才扣，不玩虚的

Cerebras那次我是真的尝到甜头了，所以这次二期我也会继续跟，这里要感谢麦通小伙伴 @BeliaSchoo91221 第一时间提醒！🙏感恩

但话说回来，我不是来喊单的。

Anthropic押的是AI生产力这条赛道，Polymarket看的是事件金融化这个新市场，到底能不能跑出来，谁也说不准。

仓位怎么配，风险怎么控，各位老板心里都有数。

我只是把我看到的、研究过的东西，跟大家分享一下。在这个存量市场里，拼认知差和赔率，永远比拼手速活得久。

🎯申购入口已开放👇
https://msx.com/ipo?tab=2

炒美股，我选择用 #RWA 美股代币化平台 #MSX，让我们一同投资参与美股市场：http://msx.com/?code=Vu2v44

DYOR🙏

麦通MSX: ☀️ GM，麦麦来敲小黑板了。

🚀 MSX Pre-IPO 二期，正式进入倒计时!

🔥 一期 Cerebras 的热度持续走高，
$CBRS.M 让大家真切感受到：
优质资产自由流通的价值和意义。

📌 今天12:00（UTC+8），我们将正式迎来Pre-IPO二期上新：
🔹 Anthropic
🔹 Polymarket

🌐 AI 大模型、预测市场双赛道齐发

咱们见证了一个历史性时刻！🧐

3月2日，我在 #MSX 麦通平台以 $100.35 的价格认购了 Cerebras 的 Pre-IPO 额度。昨晚， $CBRS 正式上线现货交易，开盘直接 $350，盘中最高冲到 $386.34。

我们看看这收益率，超过 300%，只能说美股真的太疯狂，比我们之前预期的100倍PS，239美金，估值还要离谱，市值直接来到了670亿美金！

重点不是涨了多少，而是我真的能卖出去，钱真的到账了！💰

说白了，#MSX 做到了两件事：

• 让我这种普通散户，真正拿到了顶级 AI 科技股的 Pre-IPO 打新额度
• 更关键的是，不只是"能参与"，而是"能退出"！

众所周知，市面上能让散户参与一级市场打新的平台不少，但真正能让用户顺利退出变现的，屈指可数。很多项目认购完了，就没下文了，要么流动性差得一塌糊涂，要么根本没有二级市场接盘。

MSX 这次算是把整个闭环跑通了：
一级认购 → 二级流通 → 链上退出，完整落地！

财富效应本不应是画饼，而要真金白银的到账。

另外我们看看 Cerebras 这家公司本身，之前我们做过分析，详细介绍过，业内称它是"英伟达最强挑战者"，拥有目前全球尺寸最大的 AI 推理芯片。重点讲三遍，现在是AI推理时代，推理时代，推理时代。更狠的是，前阵子直接跟 OpenAI 签了超 200 亿美金的战略协议！

这种级别的 AI 算力独角兽，以前你我这种散户，想都别想能碰到 Pre-IPO 的份额。传统金融市场里，这些顶级科技股的一级市场额度，基本都被机构和高净值客户瓜分完了，散户只能等到二级市场上市后高位接盘。

但这次 MSX 把这个游戏规则改了。

通过 RWA的方式，把这些顶级科技股的 Pre-IPO 额度搬到链上，让普通人也能参与。而且这次 Cerebras 成功退出，证明了这条路是通的，不是空谈概念。

平台靠谱、通道顺畅、资产可信，这三点，MSX 用实际行动证明了。

当然，投资有风险，Pre-IPO 也不是稳赚不赔的。但至少，MSX 提供了一个真实可行的渠道，让咱们这些散户有机会参与到顶级项目的早期投资，并且能够真正退出变现。

这才是最重要的。

对了，提醒一下，任何投资都需要 DYOR，尤其是 Pre-IPO 这种高风险高收益的玩法，一定要做好风险管理，别盲目跟风。但如果你对 AI 赛道和 RWA 感兴趣，#MSX 这个平台确实值得参与一下🙏

炒美股，我选择用 #RWA 美股代币化平台 #MSX，让我们一同投资参与美股市场：http://msx.com/?code=Vu2v44

早期美股投资粉丝和伙伴，可以私信我，填写表单后，可免费进入美股交流和探讨社群(目前每周仅限定10人，助理审核，可能需要一点时间，感恩🙏)！

Rocky: #OpenAI 还没上市，它的算力小弟先要IPO了，这事挺有意思。🧐

之前黄仁勋讲过，未来推理需求将会增长10亿倍，而下周四5月14日，推理时代的 #AI 芯片黑马，Cerebras ( $CBRS)要上市了，定价区间115-125美金，募资最高35亿美金，估值266亿美金。也将是 @MSX_CN 的第一期

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $CBRS Cerebras opened about 75% above its expected IPO price of $185, giving the AI chip company a roughly $100B market cap despite generating $585M in revenue last year. Ark Invest also bought 105,616 shares just one day after the IPO, adding more attention to the name. The momentum is set to continue with LeverageShares launching a 2x leveraged Cerebras ETF tomorrow morning.

2. President Trump submitted his latest stock purchase and sale disclosures to the White House Office of Ethics, with the filing reportedly spanning more than 100 pages and including thousands of trades. The disclosure is notable because it shows a sitting president actively trading individual securities rather than only holding assets like corporate debt, index funds, or Treasuries. Some of the names listed as purchases include $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN, and $RKLB.

3. The U.S. has approved around 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s $NVDA H200, the company’s second-most powerful AI chip. Nvidia hit an all time high at $240 today.

4.Figure AI has been livestreaming its humanoid robots performing real warehouse-style package sorting tasks using its Helix-02 AI system. The robots pick up, scan, rotate, and place packages onto conveyor belts autonomously while operating for extremely long periods, including a reported 24/7 run after initially targeting an 8-hour shift. The livestream is meant to prove that humanoid robots can handle repetitive labor reliably and economically, rather than just perform flashy demos. Many viewers see it as one of the first convincing demonstrations of commercially viable humanoid labor, especially for warehouses and logistics. The robot has so far dealt with 34K packages live and has reached parity with a human worker that can do 3 every second.

5. The most traded stocks in the options market today were $NVDA with 5.0M contracts, $TSLA with 2.5M, $NOK with 889K, $F with 860K, $ONDS with 849K, $INTC with 814K, $AAPL with 752K, $MSFT with 736K, $MSTR with 670K, and $MU with 644K.

6. Semiconductor leverage flows surged, with $SOXL, the 3x long semiconductor ETF, taking in a record $1.03B on Tuesday. At the same time, $SOXS, the 3x short semiconductor ETF, saw $230M of outflows, its largest daily withdrawal since late March. $TQQQ also added $161M, its biggest inflow since March 31, but $SOXL inflows were more than 6x larger as traders concentrated bullish exposure in semiconductors. Since the March 30 bottom, $SOXL is up 354%, its strongest 31-day gain since launching in 2010, while the $SOX semiconductor index is up 68%, its third-best 31-day run on record.

7. Retail investors are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in years. Year-to-date retail equity inflows are ahead of every comparable period over the last seven years except 2021, and after slowing briefly in March, retail buying jumped sharply in April. The week ending May 1 ranked in the top 2% of weekly retail inflows since 2019, and at the current pace, individual investor purchases could surpass the 2021 record as soon as July. Retail options activity is also elevated, with average daily volume now at 1.57x January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 peak.

8. SpaceX could release its IPO prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC, after confidentially filing in April. The company’s roadshow is expected to start June 8, with SpaceX reportedly targeting one of the largest public offerings ever following its merger with xAI at a combined $1.25T valuation. The IPO could raise around $70B-$75B, which would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

9. AI data center demand is putting pressure on power costs across PJM, the largest U.S. grid, which serves 67M people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Wholesale power prices averaged $136.53/MWh in Q1 2026, up 75.5% from $77.78/MWh a year ago. Capacity costs rose 398.1% year-over-year, while congestion costs increased 300.4% to $2B.

10. Tech layoffs have now passed 100,000 in 2026, with TNW reporting cuts across roughly 250 events this year. LinkedIn is reducing headcount by about 5% despite 12% revenue growth, while Cloudflare is cutting more than 1,100 roles, or about 20% of its workforce. AI is becoming a major driver of the reset, with Challenger citing it as the top reason for job cuts in both March and April and linking AI to 49,135 announced layoffs so far this year.

11. President Trump said President Xi told him China will not supply military equipment to Iran and supports a peace agreement. Trump also said Xi offered to help mediate the situation and work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil flows.

12. The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee today in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill would create clearer federal rules for crypto, including when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. Crypto stocks rallied on the news, including Coinbase, as investors viewed it as a major step toward regulatory certainty. The bill still is not law and needs full Senate approval, House reconciliation, and final passage. The main fights now are over stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering rules, and ethics concerns tied to political figures profiting from crypto. $BTC Bitcoin passed $81,000.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$CBRS 以pre-IPO 50%以上的溢价IPO. 我应该不会参与，但是会观察他对情绪面的影响。

Bloomberg: Cerebras expects to price its US initial public offering at $185 per share, according to people familiar with the matter, as the artificial intelligence chipmaker seizes on the surging demand for semiconductors https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-13/ai-chipmaker-cerebras-said-poised-to-price-ipo-at-185-per-share?taid=6a04dbc876997b0001c3e377&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.

2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.

3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.

4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.

5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.

6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.

7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.

8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.

9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.

10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.

11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.

12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here’s a full recap:

1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.

2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.

3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters.

4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.

5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."

6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.

7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.

8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.

9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K.

10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.

11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash

12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.

I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

#OpenAI 还没上市，它的算力小弟先要IPO了，这事挺有意思。🧐

之前黄仁勋讲过，未来推理需求将会增长10亿倍，而下周四5月14日，推理时代的 #AI 芯片黑马，Cerebras ( $CBRS)要上市了，定价区间115-125美金，募资最高35亿美金，估值266亿美金。也将是 @MSX_CN 的第一期 PreIPO项目，还是十分值得期待的！

今天我们就来拆解一下这家Cerebras公司，以及估值分析情况，还有我个人的一些私人判断和意见。

要了解这个OpenAI系的推理芯片黑马，就要知晓山姆奥特曼的资本布局。

我们都知道英伟达在AI芯片领域有多牛，大模型公司烧钱，云厂商买卡，创业公司排队等GPU，最后利润大多流向卖铲子的英伟达，这是目前行业的现状。

但这种一家独大的局面，各家大模型厂商，都希望有一个嫡系方案做PlanB，比如谷歌Gemini便联合博通采用TPU方案，OpenAI也一直想扶持自己的嫡系部队。

所以在5月6日，OpenAI把英伟达、AMD、英特尔、博通、微软这些本该互相竞争的芯片公司拉到一起，搞了个MRC网络协议。表面看是技术合作，其实是OpenAI要重新分蛋糕了。

更深一层看，我认为是 #OpenAI 想要拆开英伟达全栈垄断格局。

以前训练、推理、网络、云，全让英伟达一家包圆了。现在呢？OpenAI开始精细化运营：训练归训练，推理归推理，不同场景用不同芯片，不同环节找不同供应商。

#Cerebras 就是在这个时候被推上了牌桌，它核心负责推理这一环。这正好与最近炒作火热的推理CPU概念，比如 #AMD，#INTC 等，撞在了风口上。

🔥Cerebras到底牛在哪？

Cerebras的核心杀手锏是WSE-3芯片，直接把整片12英寸晶圆做成一颗巨型芯片，面积46225平方毫米，相当于A4纸的三分之一。

我们数据对比看看，相较于英伟达H100：
• 它面积是H100的57倍
• 核心数是52倍
• 片上内存是880倍
• 内存带宽是7000倍

这数据📊看起来蛮夸张的，但核心关键不在大，而在于快。

在推理场景，尤其是长文本输出、实时交互、代码生成、AI Agent这些需要低延迟的任务上，Cerebras的CS-3系统推理速度比英伟达DGX B200快21倍，成本和能耗降到三分之一。这个效率和功耗，采用WSE-3芯片意味着OpenAI能在单位时间服务更多客户，这就相当于白花花银子啊。

📊财务数据也很漂亮

首先从市场趋势来看，AI 产业正从训练为主转向推理为主，这是不争的事实，2025 年全球 AI 推理市场规模已达1062亿美元，预计2030年将增至 2550亿美元，而 Cerebras 的技术优势正好踩在了风口上。

另外本轮IPO估值为266亿美金，发行价为115-125美金/股，我觉得是相对便宜的，虽然比上一轮估值翻了倍，上一轮F轮估值约为120亿美金，短短两年时间，直接翻倍，但架不住漂亮的财务数据。

2025年Cerebras营收5.1亿美金，比2024年的2.9亿增长76%。更牛的是净利润8790万美金，2024年还亏4.85亿，直接扭亏为盈。

以266亿估值来算，PS为52倍。以24年上市的热门半导体连接芯片公司Astera Labs( #ALAB)做对比，它上市首日PS高达81倍。而目前正处于火热的推理赛道炒作中，个人认为Cerebras冲击80-100倍PS绰绰有余，对应的收盘价192美金—239美金，预计有50%以上涨幅！(但也要观察当天纳斯达克指数行情来综合判断)

不能只说好的一面，目前Cerebras问题也很明显，客户集中度太高。阿联酋MBZUAI贡献62%收入，G42贡献24%，前两大客户占86%。意味着Cerebras必须听大客户的话，自主性有限。可喜的是，OpenAI的介入，未来这种收入结构会有所改善，而且OpenAI会成为最大客户。

🎯OpenAI和Cerebras的深度绑定

最新的数据，OpenAI与Cerebras签了多年的合作协议，总价值超200亿美金，Cerebras要给OpenAI提供750兆瓦算力，部署到2028年。

但这不只是采购合同这么简单。OpenAI创始人奥特曼、总裁布鲁克曼、前首席科学家伊利亚、董事会成员亚当·安戈洛，这些核心高管都个人投资了Cerebras。

OpenAI还通过贷款、认股权证等金融工具，和Cerebras建立长期利益绑定。说白了，现在的Cerebras就是OpenAI的芯片部门。

除此之外，Cerebras 3月又与 AWS 达成合作，CS-3 系统上线亚马逊云端服务，成为首个进入主流云端厂商供应链的非 GPU AI 加速器。此外，葛兰素史克、美国能源部、多个国家实验室等也都是其客户，技术实力也得到多维度的验证。

💡OpenAI的资本局

OpenAI的真实意图很清楚：

• 训练继续用英伟达高端GPU
• 推理引入Cerebras低延迟方案
• 部分GPU采购AMD
• 网络协议开放化
• 云服务在AWS、Azure、谷歌Cloud之间多家下注
• 未来可能推自研芯片

这是算力组合拳策略，不同工作负载匹配不同系统，不再单独依赖英伟达全栈方案。

OpenAI正在从模型公司转变为算力架构公司。以前只能被动接受芯片厂商定义的技术路线，现在要主动设计符合自己需求的算力组合。

OpenAI要把芯片供应商从"平台提供者"降维为"模块供应商"。所以扶持Cerebras是其战略中最重要的一环，预期来看，Cerebras上市首日股价，爆火的概率极大！

⚡对英伟达的影响

短期看，Cerebras上市对英伟达冲击不大，就像身上长个粉刺一样无关痛痒。

英伟达目前占AI芯片市场80-90%份额，CUDA生态、GPU供应链、NVLink网络，这些护城河短期很难撼动。

但长期看，威胁是存在的。以前AI公司别无选择，只能用英伟达GPU。现在至少在推理场景，客户有了可行替代方案。这种选择权的出现，削弱了英伟达定价权。

当OpenAI可以说"推理我用Cerebras，训练我用英伟达"时，英伟达就失去了"全包"的议价能力。

AI推理市场正在快速增长。根据预测,2026-2032年全球AI推理市场复合增长率将达28.9%。推理场景更适合专用芯片。当推理市场规模超过训练市场时，英伟达在推理领域的相对弱势就会成为更大问题。

英伟达正在从"唯一供应商"变成"核心供应商之一"。这个转变不是因为英伟达变弱了，而是市场变大了，客户变强了，需求变复杂了。

🧐我的判断

Cerebras上市真正值得看的，不是又一家AI芯片公司IPO，而是OpenAI开始把推理这门生意单独拎出来定价了。

当推理市场被验证可以独立定价时，AI算力市场就真的开始分层了。训练和推理的需求差异被明确化，专用芯片在细分场景的优势被验证。

英伟达"一种芯片打天下"的叙事不再完全成立。市场会从"通用GPU垄断"走向"场景化芯片组合"。

而且不只OpenAI这么干，Anthropic也在和亚马逊、谷歌结盟。头部AI公司都在通过多元化采购降低对英伟达依赖。单一供应商的"完整解决方案"不再是最优选择。

最后值得一提的是，这次 #MSX 第一期PreIPO项目即将上市，它就是本周四即将上市的Cerebras，拭目以待吧！🧐

DYOR🙏

Bruce J: MSX第一期PreIPO的项目之一即将上市😘