🚨THE BEARS HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR THREE YEARS.

And they’re about to be wrong again.

Morgan Stanley just raised their S&P 500 target to 8,300.

Year-end 2026 target: 8,000.
Twelve-month target: 8,300.

Over 12% upside from current levels around 7,400.

But here’s the line that matters most:

“Our bullish index view is an earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.”

Read that again.

EARNINGS.

> 83.2% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates.

> Morgan Stanley projects $339 EPS for 2026. That’s 23% growth, followed by $380 in 2027 and $429 in 2028.

A compounding earnings machine. Not a bubble.

Now let me show you what the bears keep getting wrong.

There’s a clip making the rounds right now.

A guy pulls up two charts side by side.

> Left chart: The dot-com era. Price ripping higher. Earnings flatlined. Pure narrative. Pure multiple expansion. Pure speculation.

> Right chart: Right now, 2023-2026. Earnings are LEADING price. AI and semiconductors are driving actual profits. Price is still CATCHING UP to the gray line.

His point? We’re not in a bubble. We’re in the middle of an earnings cycle that hasn’t fully repriced yet.

He’s right.

$MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix and Samsung, 75% of the $DRAM market are proof.

These are companies printing money faster than analysts can revise targets upward.

> The memory supercycle isn’t priced in.

> The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t priced in.

The earnings are real and the multiples are still compressing INTO the growth.

The dot-com bubble was speculation in search of earnings.

This is earnings in search of a price that can catch up.

There’s a massive difference.

So where does the money go?

$SPY and $QQQ as a passive bet + into the infrastructure that’s CAUSING the earnings surge.

Here’s where I’m positioned:

→ $IREN
→ $NBIS
→ $CIFR
→ $AAOI
→ $SIVE
→ $RKLB
→ $OUST
→ $PENG
→ $ONDS
→ $KRKNF

Every single one of these names sits inside the structural AI buildout that’s driving the future earnings Morgan Stanley just upgraded their entire index outlook for.

HERE’S THE MACRO SETUP

Morgan Stanley explicitly ties their revised outlook to AI adoption enhancing operating leverage across the S&P 500 and a rolling earnings recovery that continues to progress.

This isn’t a macro call. This is a capital allocation call.

The earnings cycle is real.
The infrastructure buildout is real.
The defense spending acceleration is real.

$QQQ and $SPY tell you the tide is coming in.

The names above tell you which boats rise the most.

The dot-com bubble was price without earnings.

This is earnings without price.

The gray line hasn’t been touched yet.

We’re mid-cycle. Act accordingly.

Still long. Still adding. Still building.

-BP

Please remember: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold positions in many of the names mentioned.

Micro2Macr0: Why this Is NOTHING Like the Dot-Com Bubble!!! 😡

They say the average annual return of the market is typically between 7% - 10%.

So as investors, that's the return we should typically expect, right?

Well, no.

While the market average is typically 7% to 10%, there is a wide standard deviation, meaning that most years the market does not have a return within that average range.

In fact, it's just as common for the market to return 0% to -10% as it is for it to return 0% to 10%.

And it's actually much more common for the market to have returns of 10% to 30% than the average.

And this is why most people can't handle investing.

It can be emotional-

If you let it.

Having a year where you are up 30%, followed by a year where you are down 30% can be quite the emotional rollercoaster.

This causes people to jump in and out of the market at random times.

And the data tells us historically speaking that investors are quite bad at trying to time the market.

So what does this mean for us?

Don't expect the average over short periods of time.

In the last few years, this has been $SPY results:

S&P 500 in 2022: -19.64%
S&P 500 in 2023: 24.20%
S&P 500 in 2024: 23.31%
S&P 500 in 2024: 16.29%

See what I mean?

Remember when I sniped the bottom on $SPY using the Williams %R?

Well now I'm teaching you how to setup and use it.

Thank me later 👇
https://youtu.be/H32gCCgZOpo?si=e7ctfsHiN8oT9V0k

RonnieV: Every major pullback on this chart found a bottom the same way.

Williams % Range hit the Green Barrier (-100).

Since 2018:

• 6 times → direct bottom
• 1 time → local bottom then continued selloff (2022 bear market)
• 1 time → local bottom → final flush → hard bottom

FUTURES

I don’t think anyone would’ve questioned a general 1% pullback after the rally we’ve had since March 30th, but the question now is if this becomes larger due to the escalation.

I still think both sides want a deal and are having those last minute issues that always take place when trying to close a big deal, but markets will have to decide how much they believe a deal has a chance to take place…

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

HOW I WILL PLAY THE NEXT MONTHS AND WHAT I EXPECT:

I want to touch on 5 important things:

1. First, I’m sad to see the lunch of $ASTS fail. I sold a while ago. “$Execution delays is a risks. Sold and took profit recently.”

Still saddens me to see.

2. I see a lot of new concerns on US/Iran. Here’s my take and how I will play it:

Overall I believe we have see the worst. I could be wrong. But usually when ceasefire and ‘talks’ have been somehow ongoing it’s very rare a full blown war will continue.

I expect some volatility short-term. I’ll be DCA’en through if it plays out.

Long-term I have NO concerns. US are on their way to a ‘goldilocks’ era. So many investments are being made INTO US.

I expect inflation to rise short-term. Fall afterwards towards the goldilock-era for US where AI infrastructure will play out and dominate.

Lastly. I see some concerns about ‘oh, but $SPY $SPX $QQQ are all back to ATH and topping.

Yes. But MAG7 is not topping. $NVDA $GOOG $AMZN are close to touching Octobers high. But recently. $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA are far from it.

Meaning the ‘top’ is not driven by small cap or MAG7.

But the middle-layer of $SPYx / SP500.

I’m not concerned. But expect more of a rotation to continue into risk-on - when US/Iran clears.

3. A couple of hours ago I released a FREE NEW extensive deep dive on $OUST. You should go read it.

4. I’m considering creating a FREE group-chat here on X. A community.

What I expect of the group:

This is not a buy/sell signal group.

But a group to connect with like-minded. Analyzing the market, sharing ideas, research, insights, learnings and Go deep on finding gems together.

There’s limited spots.

If you want to join. Comment: “YES.”

And just to be clear: I dont have a course or offer no paid services.

5. Based on 2) - I’ll sit tight in my long-term high conviction plays with ease and peace. Add on dips. Pure DCA.

Meanwhile I’ll soon open up my short-term account again and begin some short-term swing trades in the timeframe of less than

Black Panther Capital: → PORTFOLIO UPDATE & REFLECTIONS:

Here’s what have changed:

I used the recent volatility to take some profit and consolidate around my highest conviction names.

LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO:
$IREN – 24.2%
$CIFR – 22.2%
$TE – 16.2%
$ONDS – 14.1%
$RKLB – 14.1%
$OSS – 9.1%

SHORT-TERM

之前在这篇聊代币化浪潮下链上资产平台如何突围的推文https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/2037118786860704232?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 里聊到，谁能最快、最无摩擦地在链上提供全球任意“优质/爆发资产”的交易暴露（不管是正股spot还是Perp衍生品），谁就能在流动性、用户上取得先机。这是26年证券代币化浪潮下的“胜负手”核心关键。

看起来GRVT团队是听进去了，上周就上线了了 TSM、SPY、QQQ、NVDA、PAYP、SNDK这些大家真正会关注，也真正会交易的股票类资产。实质上交易者也是希望能交易到优质资产的。

现在GRVT的24小时交易量做到20亿美元，未平仓合约（OI）达到4.59亿美元，数据是相当亮眼。

如果从$100k量级订单的平均滑点和 24h 真实股票交易量两个维度去看，会发现GRVT 不只是在10万美元量级的股票滑点上经常能排到几家链上Perp Dex中的第二，它在股票交易量上也同样稳居头部区间，简单说就是滑点控制得好 + 真实深度靠前。

GRVT的表现让我看到了一种更实质的趋势：如果一个平台已经同时展现出强劲的执行质量和高交易量，交易者自然会注意到，资金和订单也会跟着往流动性更深的地方集中。

所以不仅是要上线了更多资产品种，而是交易条件，深度流动性等开始真正支撑起活跃度。股票可能是GRVT的突破口，先在加密之外的股票领域站稳脚跟，随着覆盖度和大宗商品市场的持续完善，很可能自然延伸到商品领域，形成更完整的多市场流动性闭环。

Grvt: $QQQ, $SPY, $AAPL, $TSM, $MU, and $SNDK perps are LIVE on Grvt!

🟢 Up to 10x leverage

Earn up to 11% yield on your collateral while you trade. 👇