🚨 BREAKING: HISTORIC SUPPLY SQUEEZE SIGNAL FLASHING FOR MARCH SILVER (SIH26)
The disconnect between paper claims and physical reality on the COMEX March 2026 Silver contract has just hit critical levels. We are witnessing a potential liquidity crisis in real-time.
📉 The Data Gap:
• Open Interest (Paper Claims): ~425M - 455M oz currently demanding delivery.
• Registered Inventory (Physical): Only ~82M - 113M oz actually available in vaults.
• The Leverage: Paper demand is now 5X the available physical supply.
⚠️ The Risk:
If just 20-25% of Long holders stand for physical delivery on First Notice Day (Feb 27), existing inventories will be effectively drained.
With structural deficits driven by Solar & AI hardware demand, the "Paper Silver" market is cornered. Watch for extreme volatility or potential forced cash settlements if the physical metal cannot be sourced.
$SI_F $SLV #Silver #Commodities #ShortSqueeze #Macro #Investing #PreciousMetals
Options IV has lagged behind HV, currently options can be a better tool to exploit COMEX market manipulation.
The disconnect between paper claims and physical reality on the COMEX March 2026 Silver contract has just hit critical levels. We are witnessing a potential liquidity crisis in real-time.
📉 The Data Gap:
• Open Interest (Paper Claims): ~425M - 455M oz currently demanding delivery.
• Registered Inventory (Physical): Only ~82M - 113M oz actually available in vaults.
• The Leverage: Paper demand is now 5X the available physical supply.
⚠️ The Risk:
If just 20-25% of Long holders stand for physical delivery on First Notice Day (Feb 27), existing inventories will be effectively drained.
With structural deficits driven by Solar & AI hardware demand, the "Paper Silver" market is cornered. Watch for extreme volatility or potential forced cash settlements if the physical metal cannot be sourced.
$SI_F $SLV #Silver #Commodities #ShortSqueeze #Macro #Investing #PreciousMetals
Options IV has lagged behind HV, currently options can be a better tool to exploit COMEX market manipulation.
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IMPORTANT MACRO STATS TODAY:
1. Alphabet $GOOGL is lining up a ~$15B multi-tranche bond deal, including ultra-long paper out to 2066 priced around +120 bps over Treasuries — strong signal of demand for duration at scale. Basically, everyone wants to buy Google's debt.
2. ChatGPT traffic hit 5.72B visits in Jan 2026, the 4th-highest month ever: +3.7% MoM rebound and +48.7% YoY, the fastest growth among the world’s top 10 sites. Good for $MSFT $ORCL.
3. Single-stock short selling just logged its largest weekly print on record (back to 2016) as per Goldman Sachs. Maybe...the shorts have to cover soon? Maybe they started covering on Friday?
4. Bloomberg reports Chinese regulators are urging banks to cut back U.S. Treasury exposure due to volatility. 10yr still hovering around 4.2%. Trump needs to get yields down.
5. Retail continues to go into hard assets: $GLD saw +$16B inflows over the past year, with $9B in just 5 months (56% of annual total). $SLV pulled in +$4B from individuals. I sold my $COPX for a 10% move two weeks ago, I just think the metals are becoming too volatile and plenty of stocks offer that volatility without needing to pile into the metals.
6. U.S. consumers have more credit than ever before December credit rose +$24B to a record $5.11T; revolving credit (cards) jumped +$13.8B, the highest since Nov ’22. Ultimately, we've been seeing headlines like this for a year now -- until we see an issue in the labor market, not sure if this would matter as much.
7. Cash is piling back into sidelines as Money-market fund assets are +$85B week over week, snapping a two-week trend of MMFs showing net outflows. People are heading to cash after last week's volatility but maybe some stability this week will bring that cash back into markets. $7.8T still on the sidelines!
1. Alphabet $GOOGL is lining up a ~$15B multi-tranche bond deal, including ultra-long paper out to 2066 priced around +120 bps over Treasuries — strong signal of demand for duration at scale. Basically, everyone wants to buy Google's debt.
2. ChatGPT traffic hit 5.72B visits in Jan 2026, the 4th-highest month ever: +3.7% MoM rebound and +48.7% YoY, the fastest growth among the world’s top 10 sites. Good for $MSFT $ORCL.
3. Single-stock short selling just logged its largest weekly print on record (back to 2016) as per Goldman Sachs. Maybe...the shorts have to cover soon? Maybe they started covering on Friday?
4. Bloomberg reports Chinese regulators are urging banks to cut back U.S. Treasury exposure due to volatility. 10yr still hovering around 4.2%. Trump needs to get yields down.
5. Retail continues to go into hard assets: $GLD saw +$16B inflows over the past year, with $9B in just 5 months (56% of annual total). $SLV pulled in +$4B from individuals. I sold my $COPX for a 10% move two weeks ago, I just think the metals are becoming too volatile and plenty of stocks offer that volatility without needing to pile into the metals.
6. U.S. consumers have more credit than ever before December credit rose +$24B to a record $5.11T; revolving credit (cards) jumped +$13.8B, the highest since Nov ’22. Ultimately, we've been seeing headlines like this for a year now -- until we see an issue in the labor market, not sure if this would matter as much.
7. Cash is piling back into sidelines as Money-market fund assets are +$85B week over week, snapping a two-week trend of MMFs showing net outflows. People are heading to cash after last week's volatility but maybe some stability this week will bring that cash back into markets. $7.8T still on the sidelines!
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CME’s margin hike is going to squeeze both sides of the trade. But because of the months-long run-up, the longs are still way more crowded than the shorts, even after last week's massive pullback. This means selling pressure is going to be much heavier than buying pressure. On the plus side, the margin spike will force a de-leveraging event, which should kill off the volatility pretty quickly. Ideally, we'll see gold and silver just 'behave' and trade sideways in a balanced range. $GLD $SLV #gold #silver
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TRUMP IS OKAY WITH A WEAK DOLLAR.
So, part of the move in precious metals has likely been a rotation, or diversification, by central banks/funds out of the USD.
The $DXY, or dollar index, hit its lowest level this year at $95.80. For context, it was at $109 before Trump came into office. It's now down 11% over the past year.
Why does this matter?
1. When the dollar weakens, U.S. goods become cheaper for foreign buyers. That means more exports, more demand, more jobs which helps big exporters, manufacturers, and multinationals. This is EXACTLY what Trump wants to decrease the trade deficit.
2. When the dollar falls, it takes more dollars to buy the same ounce of a commodity, increasing the value of a hard asset. Investors usually run to gold/silver as a store of value when fiat weakens and boy is fiat USD weakening. Bullish $GLD $SLV.
However, it is not the best for international investors. If you are in Europe, you have been feeling the pain of a weakening dollar:
- You buy a U.S. stock at $100
- EUR/USD = 1.00 → that’s €100
- Stock stays at $100
- USD weakens, EUR/USD = 1.10
- Your $100 is now worth €91
Ultimately, Trump never wanted a strong dollar. He was clear last year that he is okay with it weakening and given the run in Gold/Silver, we may be seeing global investors finally decide to sell off the USD. I don't think he lets it get much lower than $90, but if we continue to see this rotation, it feels like there is a chance it can get below there.
The takeaway is that cash can literally become trash (although I do think it is very valuable to have cash as a position) if the USD keeps weakening and owning hard assets/companies that can produce real earnings is the solution...which means the $7.5T on the sidelines in money markets (which have seen $100B of outflows over the past 2 weeks) may start to rotate into metals, crypto, and stocks...especially if rates come down.
So, part of the move in precious metals has likely been a rotation, or diversification, by central banks/funds out of the USD.
The $DXY, or dollar index, hit its lowest level this year at $95.80. For context, it was at $109 before Trump came into office. It's now down 11% over the past year.
Why does this matter?
1. When the dollar weakens, U.S. goods become cheaper for foreign buyers. That means more exports, more demand, more jobs which helps big exporters, manufacturers, and multinationals. This is EXACTLY what Trump wants to decrease the trade deficit.
2. When the dollar falls, it takes more dollars to buy the same ounce of a commodity, increasing the value of a hard asset. Investors usually run to gold/silver as a store of value when fiat weakens and boy is fiat USD weakening. Bullish $GLD $SLV.
However, it is not the best for international investors. If you are in Europe, you have been feeling the pain of a weakening dollar:
- You buy a U.S. stock at $100
- EUR/USD = 1.00 → that’s €100
- Stock stays at $100
- USD weakens, EUR/USD = 1.10
- Your $100 is now worth €91
Ultimately, Trump never wanted a strong dollar. He was clear last year that he is okay with it weakening and given the run in Gold/Silver, we may be seeing global investors finally decide to sell off the USD. I don't think he lets it get much lower than $90, but if we continue to see this rotation, it feels like there is a chance it can get below there.
The takeaway is that cash can literally become trash (although I do think it is very valuable to have cash as a position) if the USD keeps weakening and owning hard assets/companies that can produce real earnings is the solution...which means the $7.5T on the sidelines in money markets (which have seen $100B of outflows over the past 2 weeks) may start to rotate into metals, crypto, and stocks...especially if rates come down.
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$SLV can go to 95 fast if 97.5 doesn't hold.
TraderGoku: $SLV 连续第三次跳开，日内跌破VWAP。
Looks like a high volume daily reversal.
TraderGoku: $SLV 连续第三次跳开，日内跌破VWAP。
Looks like a high volume daily reversal.
$SLV 连续第三次跳开，日内跌破VWAP。
Looks like a high volume daily reversal.
TraderGoku: 过去两个月里尝试做空过两次，均以失败告终，watching on the sideline now.
$SLV $GLD
Looks like a high volume daily reversal.
TraderGoku: 过去两个月里尝试做空过两次，均以失败告终，watching on the sideline now.
$SLV $GLD
FUTURES
Nasdaq, Russel, Dow Jones, and S&P open red on fears of a shutdown coming by January 31st.
Bitcoin $BTC falls below $86K.
Gold $GLD is dollars away from $5000 and $SLV Silver has broke $103.
Big Tech earnings begin this week with Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla.
amit: BREAKING: US Government shutdown odds now approach 79% after Democrats threaten to not vote for the proposed spending bill unless new DHS and ICE funding is eliminated.
The 40-day shutdown in October is likely shedding 1-2% off Q4 GDP.
Q1 GDP is expected to be very strong, but
Nasdaq, Russel, Dow Jones, and S&P open red on fears of a shutdown coming by January 31st.
Bitcoin $BTC falls below $86K.
Gold $GLD is dollars away from $5000 and $SLV Silver has broke $103.
Big Tech earnings begin this week with Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla.
amit: BREAKING: US Government shutdown odds now approach 79% after Democrats threaten to not vote for the proposed spending bill unless new DHS and ICE funding is eliminated.
The 40-day shutdown in October is likely shedding 1-2% off Q4 GDP.
Q1 GDP is expected to be very strong, but
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过去两个月里尝试做空过两次，均以失败告终，watching on the sideline now.
$SLV $GLD
TraderGoku: $SLV 白银 连续第五个跳空高开，可能是个抛物线做空机会。
$ZSL 两倍做空白银ETF
$SLV $GLD
TraderGoku: $SLV 白银 连续第五个跳空高开，可能是个抛物线做空机会。
$ZSL 两倍做空白银ETF
well, this was quite the open after the Greenland tariffs announced...
$SPX down 1.2%, not that big of a deal
$BTC lost 90K again, geopolitical instability not being a catalyst
$SLV and $GOLD continue to break ATH, the commodities trade is loving this
$ZETA $BE $ONDS and other high beta growth...literally don't care about Greenland and are green
the 10yr continues to be an issue as rumors are circulating that Europe is dumping US treasuries (but where else would they put that money??) and Japan's treasuries look like hockey sticks which are not good
ultimately...market isn't full on doomsday with the Greenland tariffs
$SPX down 1.2%, not that big of a deal
$BTC lost 90K again, geopolitical instability not being a catalyst
$SLV and $GOLD continue to break ATH, the commodities trade is loving this
$ZETA $BE $ONDS and other high beta growth...literally don't care about Greenland and are green
the 10yr continues to be an issue as rumors are circulating that Europe is dumping US treasuries (but where else would they put that money??) and Japan's treasuries look like hockey sticks which are not good
ultimately...market isn't full on doomsday with the Greenland tariffs
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FUTURES POST THE NEW 10% GREENLAND TARIFFS:
Gold up 1%, Silver up 4%, VIX up 3%, Nasdaq down almost 1%.
Markets are closed tomorrow but futures are initially showing they aren’t the happiest about the tariffs, but obviously things can change very quickly with Trump.
The EU is also reportedly planning to target the US with $100B of new tariffs in response to Trump’s 10% Greenland tariffs.
$GLD $SLV $QQQ $VIX
Gold up 1%, Silver up 4%, VIX up 3%, Nasdaq down almost 1%.
Markets are closed tomorrow but futures are initially showing they aren’t the happiest about the tariffs, but obviously things can change very quickly with Trump.
The EU is also reportedly planning to target the US with $100B of new tariffs in response to Trump’s 10% Greenland tariffs.
$GLD $SLV $QQQ $VIX
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