2026Q1 HOWARD MARKS 和 OAKTREE CAPITAL

TORM $TRMD：7.576億美元
Expand Energy $EXE：5.03億美元
Garrett Motion $GTX：4.61億美元
AngloGold Ashanti $AU：3.128億美元
Core Scientific $CORZ：2.298億美元
Viper Energy $VNOM：1.81億美元
Telephone and Data Systems $TDS：1.78億美元
Nokia $NOK：1.572億美元
SunOpta $STKL：1.347億美元
Petroleo Brasileiro $PBR：1.208億美元
Talen Energy $TLN：1.15億美元
Barrick $B：1.105億美元
CBL & Associates $CBL：9,940萬美元
Itau Unibanco $ITUB： 9,790萬美元
Liberty Global (LBTYA)：9,710萬美元
Credo Technology (CRDO)：9,630萬美元
TransAlta (TAC)：8,420萬美元
Freeport-McMoran (FCX)：7,740萬美元
Kilroy Realty (KRC)：6,570萬美元
Grupo Aeromexico (AERO)：5,960萬美元
XP Inc (XP)：5,650萬美元
Bausch + Lomb (BLCO)：5,410萬美元
Runway Growth Finance (RWAY)：4,680萬美元
Liberty Latin America (LILAK)：4,440萬美元
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)：3,930萬美元
Array Digital Infrastructure (AD)：3,690萬美元
Cemex (CX)：3570萬美元
Ecovyst (ECVT)：3,470萬美元
Embraer (EMBJ)： 2,620萬美元
Ternium $TX：2560萬美元
Rice Acquisition 3 $KRSP：2,490萬美元
Oaktree Specialty Lending $OCSL：2,220萬美元
Telecom Argentina $TEO：2010萬美元
Simply Good Foods $SMPL：1300萬美元
Magnachip Semiconductor $MX：1,210萬美元
SmartRent $SMRT：870萬美元
Battalion Oil $BATL：660萬美元
NRG Energy $NRG：660萬美元
Optimum Communications $OPTU：650萬美元
Liberty Latin America A $LILA：630萬美元
Asertio Holdings $ASRT：500萬美元
Invesco Senior Loan ETF $BKLN：410萬美元
HDFC Bank $HDB：280萬美元
PDD Holdings $PDD：45.9萬美元
Alvotech $ALVO： 33.3萬美元
BioXcel Therapeutics (股票代號：BTAI)：28.9萬美元

NU、ORCL、SMH、GRAB 全部售出

🚨THE BEARS HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR THREE YEARS.

And they’re about to be wrong again.

Morgan Stanley just raised their S&P 500 target to 8,300.

Year-end 2026 target: 8,000.
Twelve-month target: 8,300.

Over 12% upside from current levels around 7,400.

But here’s the line that matters most:

“Our bullish index view is an earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.”

Read that again.

EARNINGS.

> 83.2% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates.

> Morgan Stanley projects $339 EPS for 2026. That’s 23% growth, followed by $380 in 2027 and $429 in 2028.

A compounding earnings machine. Not a bubble.

Now let me show you what the bears keep getting wrong.

There’s a clip making the rounds right now.

A guy pulls up two charts side by side.

> Left chart: The dot-com era. Price ripping higher. Earnings flatlined. Pure narrative. Pure multiple expansion. Pure speculation.

> Right chart: Right now, 2023-2026. Earnings are LEADING price. AI and semiconductors are driving actual profits. Price is still CATCHING UP to the gray line.

His point? We’re not in a bubble. We’re in the middle of an earnings cycle that hasn’t fully repriced yet.

He’s right.

$MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix and Samsung, 75% of the $DRAM market are proof.

These are companies printing money faster than analysts can revise targets upward.

> The memory supercycle isn’t priced in.

> The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t priced in.

The earnings are real and the multiples are still compressing INTO the growth.

The dot-com bubble was speculation in search of earnings.

This is earnings in search of a price that can catch up.

There’s a massive difference.

So where does the money go?

$SPY and $QQQ as a passive bet + into the infrastructure that’s CAUSING the earnings surge.

Here’s where I’m positioned:

→ $IREN
→ $NBIS
→ $CIFR
→ $AAOI
→ $SIVE
→ $RKLB
→ $OUST
→ $PENG
→ $ONDS
→ $KRKNF

Every single one of these names sits inside the structural AI buildout that’s driving the future earnings Morgan Stanley just upgraded their entire index outlook for.

HERE’S THE MACRO SETUP

Morgan Stanley explicitly ties their revised outlook to AI adoption enhancing operating leverage across the S&P 500 and a rolling earnings recovery that continues to progress.

This isn’t a macro call. This is a capital allocation call.

The earnings cycle is real.
The infrastructure buildout is real.
The defense spending acceleration is real.

$QQQ and $SPY tell you the tide is coming in.

The names above tell you which boats rise the most.

The dot-com bubble was price without earnings.

This is earnings without price.

The gray line hasn’t been touched yet.

We’re mid-cycle. Act accordingly.

Still long. Still adding. Still building.

-BP

Please remember: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold positions in many of the names mentioned.

Micro2Macr0: Why this Is NOTHING Like the Dot-Com Bubble!!! 😡

PORTFOLIO UPDATE

If you followed me this year, your short-term portfolio is up 125%.

Your long-term book is up 55%.

I don’t use options, calls, leap, short e.g.

The $SPX has spent most of 2026 trying to figure out what it is. We have not.

WHY I SHOW UP EVERY DAY

1st January I had 1,207 followers. Today we are approaching 23,000.

No subscription. No paid community. No X payout. No product. Just showing up every day and doing the work.

I made a pact with my daughter to show up every single day. To show her what consistency actually builds. Not in theory. In real time, with a number she can watch move.

I have a good job. I don’t need to monetize this. What I need is to show her what happens when you commit to something and don’t quit.

By EOY, I want her to see 50K on that number.

I’m still far from it. I also know how FAST that can change when the content connects and the market moves. So I keep going.

@Sandeman52 is someone I think about here. He built something real without noise.

That’s the benchmark. I’m here for the stocks, the connection, and the game.

Everything else is secondary.

LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO

Eight positions. All structural. Sold $AMPX today with 30% profit. Added to my positions in $KRKNF, $OUST and $ONDS

$RKLB: +83% | 18.51% of port.
$NBIS +142% | 17.09% of port.
$IREN +55% | 13.61% of port.
$AAOI +113% | 12.11% of port.
$OUST +39% | 11.60% of port.
$CIFR +42% | 10.41% of port.
$KRKNF -17% | 9.14% of port.
$ONDS -1% | 7.52% of port.

SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO:

$PENG +10% | 66.1% of port.
$SIVE +98% | 33.9% of port.

HOW I SEE THE REST OF 2026

Three forces are running the tape:

1. The AI tsunami is still in the first inning.

Only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Over 92% plan to increase AI investment. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. The infrastructure phase is being priced. The productivity phase hasn’t arrived yet. The application phase is after that.

I don’t see a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies burned cash on speculation. The companies in this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real physical constraints that large capital cannot route around.

2. Political trade has replaced free trade.

This is the structural shift most retail investors are still underweighting.
Real technology, real projects, real contracts. Political decision in Washington and repriced overnight. That is the new operating environment.

Capital allocation now has a new first-order variable: political geography. Which government wants this to succeed? The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, $1.4 trillion committed, sovereign wealth choosing the US as the headquarters of the next industrial era, is the clearest current signal.

Political trade creates volatility in names exposed to the wrong jurisdiction. It creates structural advantage for names embedded in the right one.

3. The economy is shifting from consumption-driven to production-driven.

The post-WWII consumer economy ran for 80 years on demand expansion. What is building now is a production expansion cycle, driven by onshoring, defense spending, AI infrastructure, and energy security.

The companies that build, enable, or supply that production cycle are not being valued for what they are today. They are being valued for what the production economy needs them to be in 2028 and beyond.

That is what this portfolio is built on.

MY POSITIONING FROM HERE

I expect more volatile than consensus expects. Full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue. Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines.

The three forces above are not quarterly variables. They are decade-long structural shifts. Volatility between now and December is the mechanism that creates the next entry points or DCA opportunities.

YTD +55% long-term. +125% short-term.

And the cycle has barely started.

-BP

Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.

This is one of 2026 and 2027 most underrated AI autonomous plays out there right now:

Russia has severed 11 subsea cables in 15 months in the Baltic Sea.

Not because of accidents. Not because of fishing trawlers. Not because of natural damage.

Because of deliberate anchor dragging by vessels linked to the Russian shadow fleet.

Now Iran has full control of the undersea in Hormuz Strait.

Here's what you should know:

Kraken Robotics Inc. ($PNG.NE)
Market cap: CAD $2.2B.

> They manufacture the only NATO-qualified synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) capable of mapping the seabed at the resolution required to detect and track underwater threats before cables are cut.

> The problem size: 99% of global internet data travels through approximately 600 subsea cables.

> $10 trillion in daily financial transactions traverse this infrastructure. The EU just committed €347 million to subsea cable security in February 2026.

On May 6, Kraken signed an MOU with SEFINE SISAM, Turkey's strategic unmanned systems research center, to integrate KATFISH into mission planning software with automatic target recognition.

This is how NATO procurement starts. A demonstration, an MOU, then a procurement contract.

The Combined Naval Event at Farnborough runs May 19–21. Kraken is presenting. Formal procurement discussions follow events like this.

Either the NATO cable protection mandate generates a contract before the end of 2026, or it doesn't.

But at CAD $2.2B vs a €347M EU commitment that hasn't reached a single qualified supplier yet, you're not paying for the outcome.

-BP

Not financial advice. DYOR.

$KRKNF $PNG.V $PNG.NE

The Kobeissi Letter: BREAKING: Iran has moved to take full control of all 7 undersea internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

My 15 favorite International stocks to track right now:

$NVO | Novo Nordisk 🇩🇰
$ASML | ASML 🇳🇱
$TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 🇹🇼
$DLO | Dlocal 🇺🇾
$CSU | Constellation Software 🇨🇦
$MELI | MercadoLibre 🇦🇷
$SE | Sea Ltd 🇸🇬
$NBIS | Nebius 🇳🇱
$TOI.V | Topicus 🇨🇦
$KRKNF | Kraken Robotics 🇨🇦
$XK4 | Gabler Group 🇩🇪
$ALSTI | STIF 🇫🇷
$PME | Pro Medicus 🇦🇺
$HXSCL | SK Hynix
$GRAB | Grab holdings 🇸🇬

What are yours?

RT TacticzHazel
My 15 favorite International stocks to track right now:

$NVO | Novo Nordisk 🇩🇰
$ASML | ASML 🇳🇱
$TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 🇹🇼
$DLO | Dlocal 🇺🇾
$CSU | Constellation Software 🇨🇦
$MELI | MercadoLibre 🇦🇷
$SE | Sea Ltd 🇸🇬
$NBIS | Nebius 🇳🇱
$TOI.V | Topicus 🇨🇦
$KRKNF | Kraken Robotics 🇨🇦
$XK4 | Gabler Group 🇩🇪
$ALSTI | STIF 🇫🇷
$PME | Pro Medicus 🇦🇺
$HXSCL | SK Hynix
$GRAB | Grab holdings 🇸🇬

What are yours?

These are the current Fintwit Favorites. Which one has the most potential from this point?

$NBIS | Nebius
$TSLA | Tesla
$AMD | Advanced Micro Devices
$IREN | Iren ltd
$RKLB | Rocket Lab
$PLTR | Palantir
$HIMS | Hims and Hers
$KRKNF | Kraken Robotics
$GME | Gamestop
$CRWV | Coreweave
$AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics Inc
$SOFI | Sofi
$HOOD | Robinhood

I’ve posted everyday for 114 days straight now.

Here’s how it looks:
> +20.117 new followers.
> +18M impressions.
> +62K bookmarks.
> +11K repost.
> +116K likes.

251 days left.

Every day I post stocks I’m researching, the theses I’m building, the positions I’m actually taking, and tools for investing.

Everything I post is 100% transparent.

You’re are welcome to connect and follow me if you’re into stocks like:

$IREN, $CIFR, $NBIS, $ONDS, $AAOI, $SIVE, $OUST, $KRKNF, $HIMS, $AMPX, $RKLB, other growth plays and investing.

Cheers for the support.

-BP

One thing has become clear to me lately:

We are so EARLY in this build out.

$IREN will be a $200 stock someday.
$NBIS will be a $400 stock someday.
$CIFR will be a $100 stock someday.
$AAOI will be a $400 stock someday.
$RKLB will be a $700 stock someday.
$HIMS will be a $400 stock someday.
$OUST will be a $150 stock someday.
$AMPX will be a $80 stock someday.
$ONDS will be a $80 stock someday.
$KRKNF will be a $70 stock someday.

That’s my belief.

The easy part is conviction.

The hard part is waiting.

-BP

Please note: This is my personal opinion and belief. This is not financial advice.

Late on this one. But it’s worth the recap.

$KRKNF reported full year results yday:

→ Revenue: CAD $102M, up 12% YoY
→ Gross Profit: CAD $63M, up 42% YoY
→ Adjusted EBITDA: $25M, up 21% YoY
→ Cash: $120.5M, up from $58.5M
→ Working Capital: $171M, up from $94M
→ SeaPower batteries: +30% growth
→ Subsea services: +60% growth
→ SAS products: +60% growth

Q4 came in soft. CEO said so directly.
But the full year tells a different story.

A company doubling its cash position, scaling three product lines simultaneously, and investing $30M in new manufacturing capacity isn’t retreating.

It’s building.

2026 revenue guidance: CAD ~$127M
Capex moderating. Margins expanding.

The market is STILL sleeping on $KRKNF.

-BP

Note: This is NOT financial advice.

20,000 followers.

i'll be honest. mixed feelings.

not because i'm not grateful. i am. but because i'm also tired.

tracking markets, a portfolio, a career, a family, two kids in school, sickness in the house, and showing up here every single day.

in the hard weeks, i do what makes sense. i cut the noise. i keep only what compounds — love, depth with my kids, real wealth. the things that actually build.

right now, 𝕏 is only generating followers. i want to be honest about that.

this page started as a pact with my daughter to show her what's possible when you're consistent.

post every single day for one year. see where you land.

we're 106 days in. 259 days left. i haven't missed a single one.

i won't.

she doesn't fully understand what her dad is building yet. but she will. and i want to show her something real when she does. 50k by year end would be a pretty cool thing to point to. we'll see.

lately i've been posting but pulling back on comments and real conversations.

i want to pick that up again. that part matters to me.

because here's what i want this space to actually be.

not just signals. not just tickers. not another account firing charts at you every morning.

i want this to be a space where you grow. your portfolio, yes. but also your thinking, your mindset, your relationship with money, your sense of what you're building and why.

and that's the thing nobody talks about in this space.

most investing accounts will teach you how to pick a stock. very few will help you build the life the stock is supposed to fund.

what's the point of financial freedom if you're too burned out to enjoy it or can't handle your ego.

what's the point of a portfolio that grows while your relationships shrink. what's the point of retiring early if you've lost yourself somewhere along the way.

i want this space to hold all of it.

the market analysis. the supply chain research. the portfolio thinking. but also the psychology behind why we make bad decisions when we're afraid.

the mindset work that separates the investors who hold through chaos from the ones who sell at the bottom. the life design questions that nobody asks until it's too late; what am i actually building this for, and who do i want to be when i get there.

that's the holistic approach. not stocks and vibes. not therapy and no returns.

both. together. because they were never separate to begin with.

i've coached over 1,400 people. i've sat with executives inside forbes global 2000 companies at the peak of their career who felt completely empty. i've sat with people who had almost nothing financially but knew exactly who they were and what they were building toward.

the ones who built real wealth, the kind that lasts and actually feels like something, understood both sides.

that's what i'm here to build.

i've been in rooms with people who had everything. the money, the title, the house. and they were the loneliest people i've ever met. cracking under the pressure of a life that looked perfect from the outside.

wealth without health is nothing. money without a real foundation is just a number.

at some point this space becomes something you can be part of more deeply. a community, a paid layer, something worth paying for. not yet. but that's where this is going.

why am i doing any of this?

because i'm a father. a husband. a provider.

and if there's a chance, even a small one, that i could build something that sets my wife and kids free, why wouldn't i try?

but let me be clear about what free actually means to me.

it's not the number in the account. it's time with my kids. presence with my wife. a life where the portfolio works so i don't have to choose between showing up at work and showing up at home.

that's the real end goal. not the follower count. not the monetization.

freedom for the people i love most.

i'm building toward that. slowly. on the side. having fun with it.

to the ones who've been here since the early days when this was a few hundred people and i was still figuring it out, you know who you are. thank you. some of those conversations meant more than you know.

going forward you'll see more of that here. the market. the mindset. the life being built alongside it.

dm is always open. thanks for being here.

-BP

$IREN $NBIS $CIFR $AAOI $OUST $OSS $RKLB $AMPX $ONDS $PNG.V $KRKNF

I’ve finally pulled the trigger on a new position that I think is going to be a cornerstone of my holdings for the next decade.

I’m officially long $OUST (Ouster, Inc.).

If you’ve been following my "long-term trilogy"; $ONDS, $KRKNF, and $AMPX then you know my vibe.

I’m looking for companies that aren't just "tech stocks," but the actual backbone of the next industrial revolution.

I’ve added more to those three recently, and $OUST is joining them as a permanent fixture in the long-term bucket.

Here is the lowdown on why I’m so high on this one.

One of my favorite Peter Lynch rules is the "Mall Walk" test. Basically, if you can see a company’s products working in the real world, you’re onto something. With $OUST, it’s everywhere if you look:

Warehouse tech: Those autonomous forklifts and robots moving boxes? That’s often Ouster’s 3D vision.

Smart Cities: Ever see those sensor pods on traffic lights? They’re replacing those old-school wires in the asphalt to make intersections safer.

Security: High-end perimeter sensors that don't freak out every time a cat walks by? That’s Ouster’s "Gemini" software at work.

We talk a lot about AI in the digital sense (like ChatGPT), but "Physical AI" is where things get real. Machines need to "see" and "think" in 3D to move through our world. Ouster is the leader in Digital LiDAR.

While their competitors are mostly using "analog" tech (think vacuum tubes; clunky and expensive), Ouster has shrunk the tech onto two simple chips. It’s the same shift we saw from film cameras to digital. It’s cheaper, it’s smaller, and it scales way better.

When I look at who is actually using this tech, it’s a "who’s who" of heavy hitters. We aren't talking about speculative startups; we’re talking about +850 customers including:

> Retail/Logistics: $AMZN & $SERV
> Industrial Giants: $DE (John Deere)
> Government: NASA, US Army, US Navy, @anduriltech

If the Army and NASA trust your "eyes" to guide their hardware, you’ve probably got the best tech on the block.

Right now, the TAM is solid, $OUST sit on around 4% of the market, but we’re only scratching the surface of a +20% CAGR in the immediate sensing market. However, the future potential TAM is where the "tenbagger" potential lives. As we move toward fully autonomous shipping, port automation, and mass-market vehicle safety, the ceiling for LiDAR basically disappears.

If you look at the chart, $OUST has been beaten up lately. It’s down about 35% over the last six months.

The whole market is jittery about interest rates and oil.
They had a huge Q4, but some of it was a one-time royalty check. The "smart money" used that as an excuse to exit, but the actual product sales are still growing like crazy (shipped 25k+ units last year).

The company is debt-free with over $210M in cash. In Lynch terms: a company that has no debt can’t go bankrupt. They have a 7-year runway to just keep innovating even if the economy stays weird.
Final Thoughts

I’m treating $OUST just like my positions in $ONDS, $KRKNF, and $AMPX. This is a conviction play.

This case requires patience. It won’t go to the moon tomorrow. But with their tech advantage and customer base, I truly believe $OUST is a potential tenbagger over the next 5 to 10 years.

Stay patient, stay long.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice.

The ocean floor holds the cables, pipelines, and energy grids that run the modern world.

The most critical infrastructure on earth is essentially invisible.

$KRKNF is building the technology to change that. And no other company on earth offers what they now have.

A new $615M acquisition. Power. Sensing. Navigation. Communications. One company. Everything integrated.

That is the COMPLETE stack for an autonomous underwater vehicle.

Combined revenue of $365 million. 24% EBITDA margins. A UUV market going from $5.5B to $46.5B by 2035.

I spent the past week doing the full deep dive. Read the full breakdown on this small cap gem here.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

Black Panther Capital: http://x.com/i/article/2040344721894014977

RT TacticzHazel
Nobody knows about this company yet.

When people talk about subsea solutions, Kraken Robotics ( $KRKNF / $PNG) is the talk of the town. But there are many more interesting companies in this space.

These past weeks I've been researching Gabler Group ( ticker $XK4) and I just finished my deep dive!

Gabler is a German marine-operations small-cap, which only recently IPO’d (March 9th). They are set up perfectly to benefit from the world-wide surge in defense spending.

This results in a €360M backlog (5x revenue), as they hold a dominant position in the submarine mast segment.

Recently they made a strategic pivot towards smart subsea architecture, data analytics and power solutions.

They have a wide and very interesting product range, and are in business with most of the large players in the submarine and naval sector.

The full deep dive is now live and available via the link in the comment section and and link in bio.

Read or bookmark it, because you don't want to miss this one.

New deep dive coming out today! Gabler Group AG!

I've spend the last few weeks researching a German marine small-cap. If you like $KRKNF, you'll also really like this one.

Their core business is producing and integrating hoistable mast systems for submarines, but they recently switched to subsea communications and batteries as well.

If you want to get a feeling for what they do, I'd recommend checking out the thread below.

Full deep dive will be publish on my newsletter later today.

Link in bio!

TacticzHazel: Nobody is talking about this company yet.

But I believe that will change soon.

The past weeks I've been researching Gabler Group ( ticker $XK4).

It gives off clear $KRKNF vibes.

In this thread I will give you a quick summary of what Gabler Group does, and why they should