“马照跑舞照跳”邓小平84年承诺看看今天香港沦落？

天天岁月静好是幻觉 重点下面

人最大的错觉，就是觉得世界会像昨天一样继续运转。

但今天全球经济AI和供应链的繁荣，很多时候都建立在一种极其脆弱、极其侥幸的地缘和平之上。

全球分工、效率优化、产业协同。说穿了，这都是成本驱动下把系统性脆弱掩盖得过且过。

但中国不一样，现在这种经济人口消费出口负债，加上能源全部卡住，崩盘速度远不想象中快而突然剧烈。

当然政权不会崩，新一代和全内控超级稳定。

那么担心什么？

台湾还天天岁月静好的幻觉，你傍边是远超伊朗的恶魔之邻，真正的工业实力和军事实力以及核武。

不用打，天天转个几天无人机封锁台湾，石油燃气能撑几天？你猜到时候美国总统不是特朗普，那么会不会出手？那么全球ai命门断了世界如何？

不预测，要准备。提前为它付成本，为韧性付成本，为备份供应链付成本，为安全冗余付成本。

这也是苹果ceo当时听了cia开会后睡不着觉的原因吧。

看看这半年前的经典 那时候 $INTC 股价还不到40Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师: http://x.com/i/article/2014247637432840192

🚨Leopolds 13F is out now:

It’s obvious that data centers, AI and energy is still the theme here.

With AI Datacenters as the core theme:

He added to $IREN $KEEL $CLSK $APLD $CRWV

Stay patience. Know what you hold.

-BP

Not financial advice.Wall St Engine: Leopold’s Situational Awareness 13F is out.

New positions include $TE, $HIVE, $SHAZ, $INTC, $AMD, $SMH, $TSM, $MU, $GLW, $ASML and $NVDA

Added to $KEEL, $CLSK, $RIOT, $IREN, $APLD, $BTDR, $CRWV and $SNDK.

Trimmed $SEI, $CORZ and $BE.

Exited $COHR, $LBRT, $TSEM, $HUT, $LITE,

大热板块中的二三线股票，表现往往好过冷门板块中的一线股票。

$IONQ $RGTI 于去年九月带领量子板块率先启动。随后该板块中存在感较低的股票也开始跟随大幅上涨，比如 $QUBT $LAES $QMCO

$MRVL $INTC 于今年三月底市场大跌后带领半导体板块反弹。随后该板块中业绩一般的股票也开始跟随大幅上涨，比如 $ON $NVTS $WOLF

近期 $RKLB 用一份几乎完美的 Q1 财报，配合 SpaceX 上市预期点燃的情绪面，带领太空板块率先启动。

如果这个逻辑继续成立，太空板块接下来值得重点关注的可能就不只是 $RKLB，而是整个板块的扩散机会。比如尚未充分启动的 $FLY $ASTS $LUNR

Sector before setup.

Let’s be real here…

Every AI data center Nvidia ever builds needs optical transceivers to move data between GPUs.

Not because of GPU performance.
Not because of CUDA software.
Not because of rack density.

Because of physics. Electrical signals cannot move data at the bandwidth AI clusters require over distances greater than a few meters. Light can.

$INTC own data center documentation confirms fiber optic interconnects at 800G+ are required for every GPU cluster at scale.

Demand for 800G transceivers is STRONG with volume ramps underway in 2026.

$AAOI is still ONLY approximately $15B compared to peers as $LITE $COHR $CIEN at +50$B.

The GPU market is $500B+. The company supplying the optical layer those GPUs depend on for data movement is at $15B.

Rosenblatt raised their price target to $220 in May 2026, up from $140 in March.

Current price implies limited upside on Rosenblatt’s numbers relative to earlier valuations.

Now execution matters.Either the AI GPU capex cycle delivers the optical component volume the data suggests, or it doesn’t.

At current market cap vs. the $500B+ infrastructure build, valuations reflect much of the outcome.

But when execution follows $AAOI will easily run past $280, $300, $320, $350, $400.

I’m long $AAOI.

-BP

Save this.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

作为中国人“战争财富指南”的配套版投资指南，文章提到一个是谷歌一个是Intel

发布到现在短短5个月不到近20%回报，美伊战争低点反弹超43%。

$INTC 表现就更不用说了最高3倍了40到130

看到但做不到，知行合一很难。这种超级大盘短时间惊人涨幅难以想象，是不是泡沫？现在上船还是跳船换筹？…

这段时间，华尔街顶级机构，他们的仓位都是相反的，巴菲特 all in 的狂买，Ackman 清仓的狂卖 $GOOG

当然投资不能为信仰充值，你回顾我推文时间线，都是一步一步验证，特别是公司最新发布的两个季度的财报，分析的全面和深入，无与伦比的精准和超越市场共识

即便如此买了就涨还要看运气，当时第一时间买的马上下个月就是史无前例的人类第一次AI战争，市场崩盘大跌

但是今天战后一个多月逼空$10万亿美股市值反弹增值，也验证了，AI超级周期下这些股票标的，美国市场的真正的黄金成色。

能不能买，怎么买？为何敢买？清清楚楚 ⬇️

深度文章在主页专栏 颗粒度更细见订阅
教育分享Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师: http://x.com/i/article/2016066619240255488

如果你看懂特朗普访华后访谈提到的台湾内容，一句话就是所有AI芯片必须美国本土化

如果看Intel本周大阴线从高位132大跌，最容易误判就是是不是台海和平啦？还是基本面反转啦？

我在订阅者周报中分享核心就是，现在半导体这个市场，真正变化，不是故事本身，而是价格走的太快了

那么现在如何解读…

追涨杀跌连续上涨“股神”遍地走。但是在130以上 $INTC 交易的是不单是美国制造业回顾的梦想，而是一切仿佛都已经实现，18A 提前兑现，14A 客户落地，晶圆外部收入打开，Agentic AI 时代 CPU 和先进封装被持续重估。

市场往往是走在人的预期前面，当乐观的时候。所以这周连续大跌回撤，砍的是未来毫无瑕疵的执行力的premium。

今天还是期权结算，从技术指标看，也不再是财报后单边行情，进入强基本面和弱结构的过渡阶段。

目前看我周报也多次提醒Intel的认知差阶段已经被市场消化，估值在我给的上沿，短期赔率小，主要是技术性的买卖博弈。

具体的投资策略和估值，以及技术指标分析，见订阅者专享。

请新订阅者，尊重订阅空间，订阅前阅读article栏目的订阅指南

RT Investing visuals
The AI data center bottlenecks map & key players:

Demand:
• $MSFT
• $GOOGL
• $META
• $AMZN
• Leading LLM providers

Layer 1 - Systems & colocation:
• $DELL
• $HPQ
• $SMCI
• $EQIX
• $DLR

Layer 2A - Memory:
• $MU
• $HYNSE
• $SMSD

Layer 2B - Networking & optics:
• $AVGO
• $COHR
• $MRVL

Layer 2C - Power & cooling:
• $VRT
• $ETN
• $BE

Layer 3 - In-rack connectivity:
• $AVGO
• $ALAB
• $CRDO

Layer 4 - Foundry & packaging:
• $INTC
• $ASX
• $TSM
• $AMCR

Layer 5 - Semiconductor equipment:
• $ASML
• $AMAT
• $LRCX
• $KLAC

Note that this isn't an exhaustive list, but rather an overview of the most important businesses per segment.

I hope you found this breakdown insightful!

I've covered the supply chain in more detail in the article linked below.

Investing visuals: I just published my latest research article: The AI data center bottlenecks map, covering:

• The AI supply chain
• The key players at critical bottlenecks
• Where to look as constraints move down the supply chain

I loved diving into this over the past few weeks with the goal

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $CBRS Cerebras opened about 75% above its expected IPO price of $185, giving the AI chip company a roughly $100B market cap despite generating $585M in revenue last year. Ark Invest also bought 105,616 shares just one day after the IPO, adding more attention to the name. The momentum is set to continue with LeverageShares launching a 2x leveraged Cerebras ETF tomorrow morning.

2. President Trump submitted his latest stock purchase and sale disclosures to the White House Office of Ethics, with the filing reportedly spanning more than 100 pages and including thousands of trades. The disclosure is notable because it shows a sitting president actively trading individual securities rather than only holding assets like corporate debt, index funds, or Treasuries. Some of the names listed as purchases include $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN, and $RKLB.

3. The U.S. has approved around 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s $NVDA H200, the company’s second-most powerful AI chip. Nvidia hit an all time high at $240 today.

4.Figure AI has been livestreaming its humanoid robots performing real warehouse-style package sorting tasks using its Helix-02 AI system. The robots pick up, scan, rotate, and place packages onto conveyor belts autonomously while operating for extremely long periods, including a reported 24/7 run after initially targeting an 8-hour shift. The livestream is meant to prove that humanoid robots can handle repetitive labor reliably and economically, rather than just perform flashy demos. Many viewers see it as one of the first convincing demonstrations of commercially viable humanoid labor, especially for warehouses and logistics. The robot has so far dealt with 34K packages live and has reached parity with a human worker that can do 3 every second.

5. The most traded stocks in the options market today were $NVDA with 5.0M contracts, $TSLA with 2.5M, $NOK with 889K, $F with 860K, $ONDS with 849K, $INTC with 814K, $AAPL with 752K, $MSFT with 736K, $MSTR with 670K, and $MU with 644K.

6. Semiconductor leverage flows surged, with $SOXL, the 3x long semiconductor ETF, taking in a record $1.03B on Tuesday. At the same time, $SOXS, the 3x short semiconductor ETF, saw $230M of outflows, its largest daily withdrawal since late March. $TQQQ also added $161M, its biggest inflow since March 31, but $SOXL inflows were more than 6x larger as traders concentrated bullish exposure in semiconductors. Since the March 30 bottom, $SOXL is up 354%, its strongest 31-day gain since launching in 2010, while the $SOX semiconductor index is up 68%, its third-best 31-day run on record.

7. Retail investors are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in years. Year-to-date retail equity inflows are ahead of every comparable period over the last seven years except 2021, and after slowing briefly in March, retail buying jumped sharply in April. The week ending May 1 ranked in the top 2% of weekly retail inflows since 2019, and at the current pace, individual investor purchases could surpass the 2021 record as soon as July. Retail options activity is also elevated, with average daily volume now at 1.57x January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 peak.

8. SpaceX could release its IPO prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC, after confidentially filing in April. The company’s roadshow is expected to start June 8, with SpaceX reportedly targeting one of the largest public offerings ever following its merger with xAI at a combined $1.25T valuation. The IPO could raise around $70B-$75B, which would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

9. AI data center demand is putting pressure on power costs across PJM, the largest U.S. grid, which serves 67M people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Wholesale power prices averaged $136.53/MWh in Q1 2026, up 75.5% from $77.78/MWh a year ago. Capacity costs rose 398.1% year-over-year, while congestion costs increased 300.4% to $2B.

10. Tech layoffs have now passed 100,000 in 2026, with TNW reporting cuts across roughly 250 events this year. LinkedIn is reducing headcount by about 5% despite 12% revenue growth, while Cloudflare is cutting more than 1,100 roles, or about 20% of its workforce. AI is becoming a major driver of the reset, with Challenger citing it as the top reason for job cuts in both March and April and linking AI to 49,135 announced layoffs so far this year.

11. President Trump said President Xi told him China will not supply military equipment to Iran and supports a peace agreement. Trump also said Xi offered to help mediate the situation and work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil flows.

12. The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee today in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill would create clearer federal rules for crypto, including when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. Crypto stocks rallied on the news, including Coinbase, as investors viewed it as a major step toward regulatory certainty. The bill still is not law and needs full Senate approval, House reconciliation, and final passage. The main fights now are over stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering rules, and ethics concerns tied to political figures profiting from crypto. $BTC Bitcoin passed $81,000.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.

2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.

3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.

4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.

5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.

6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.

7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.

8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.

9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.

10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.

11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.

12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here’s a full recap:

1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $QQQ Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.

2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $LITE Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $COHR Coherent and $GLW Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $LITE Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.

3. $TSLA Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVDA and Lisa Su $AMD were not invited as per Reuters.

4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.

5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."

6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.

7. $CBRS Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.

8. $CRCL Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.

9. The most traded options today were $TSLA with 5.5M contracts, $NVDA with 4.8M, $MU with 1.1M, $INTC with 1.0M, $AAPL with 1.0M, $NOK with 886K, $META with 637K, $AMZN with 621K, $MSFT with 591K, and $AMD with 514K.

10. $HIMS Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.

11. $ASTS AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash

12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $BABA $KWEB $JD hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.

I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

去年9月这种真正顶级的半导体业内的技术路线解读，CPU的重大价值。

对于买方值多少钱？

有什么人懂技术和产业趋势？在推特上还懂投资的能结合分析？

最好笑，还有很多“无知者无畏”的中国大陆技术团队下面评论，来反驳我，什么CPU不可能。

说打脸都是轻的。认知决定财富啊。
$INTC x $NVDA

Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师: 几乎所有人都低估的Intel和英伟达发布会。这波不是主板“换个芯片”，而是把AI高速公路接到x86老城区。

只要互联跑得通、软件跑得稳、OEM跑得快，英伟达的“算力帝国”会更宽，英特尔的“x86江湖”会更深。🇨🇳🇺🇸？

简单讲：看图中间一颗CPU，两边两颗GPU＝一块“超级芯片”，CPU管调度，GPU管重体力活。

昨天 $INTC 陈立武给 $NVDA 黄仁勋颁发CMU博士学位。

现在头条就是我去年9月分析的内容又拿出来炒了一遍。Intel CPU 和 英伟达的GPU集成

最好笑的是，去年评论有个纯扯淡的娱乐大v吧，在下面翻出来不知道什么中国大陆团队的所谓技术评论

CPU和GPU的关系/配比，我讲的清清楚楚…

真是无知者无畏啊。现在他还在么？继续娱乐搞笑路线吗？

Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师: 到底姜还是老的辣，开启CPU在AI时代重估的源头一定是产业界，一定是走在潮头的英伟达 $NVDA

以前 GPU 服务器里的 CPU 可以理解为主机 CPU，负责喂数据、跑系统、管理 GPU。

去年9月英伟达发现 AI 不只是 GPU 算矩阵，很多瓶颈在 CPU、内存和数据搬运。

所以它把 CPU 和 GPU 绑得更紧。在把 CPU