Software stocks today:

$NOW +5.7%
$DDOG +28.2%
$IGV +3.6%
$ADBE +2.8%
$MSFT +2.4%
$PLTR +2.7%
$MSFT +2.8%
$CRM +3.2%

Semiconductor stocks today:

$MU -3.8%
$SNDK -7.1%
$AAOI -14%
$INTC -2.8%
$ARM -10%
$AMD -3.7%
$SMH -1.9%

I think everyone is really waiting for a Semis to Software rotation, but I’m not sure we easily get one…

Do I think software is cheap? Yes. The software names like $PLTR $APP $DDOG also proved great earnings.

Are the semiconductor names overextended? I mean, look at the charts. However, their earnings have also been INCREDIBLE.

It doesn’t feel YET like the market can have $SMH and $IGV rally together, I think the only reason $IGV is up is because $SMH is down.

But if they were to rally together…it would probably be net new capital coming into the broader market vs people selling their semis to buy software or selling software to buy semis.

Just one day, likely need much more data to see if a rotation is happening…

Are you buying software over semis here? Rotating? Adding on dips?

Claude又出10 个面向金融服务的 agent 模板，走的和OpenAi还在发布最新模型5.5不一样的路

Claude 全面进入高附加值金融白领日常工作流

过去 SaaS 公司卖的是一个个 workflow 页面。现在 Claude 说，我直接进入你每天打开的 Excel、PPT、Word、Outlook，替你完成一段金融工作。

这不是聊天工具…

基本上所有SaaS那种靠表单、流程页面、简单自动化、轻量工作流收钱的软件。它们以前的价值在于把一个流程做成页面，现在已死

因为不用迁移和摩擦成本直接在微软办公软件上跑

对于云服务商是利好，推理量增加，它会带来稳定、高价值、长上下文、多工具调用的推理需求。这对云和 AI 基础设施股票是正面的。

Microsoft 365 作为平台掌握企业数据和办公入口，但是风险在于定价模式和溢价消失，而相对看Google有着巨大的系统的软硬件/模型的云服务优势

因为agent 智能体越成功，云使用量越高。但谁控制 agent 入口，谁才有更强的利润解释权，只提供云服务比如亚马逊肯定不如谷歌打包的服务溢价强。

现在重大的范式转移在于，高价值 token 正在变成真实工作，而不是聊天。虽然正如我在订阅内容提出的现在还存在巨大高价值企业和广泛的扩展gap

但是以前我们以为模型公司只卖“智能”，SaaS 公司负责工作流。而现在模型公司开始自己包装 workflow，把 SaaS 的中间利润往自己这里拉。

如果这种模式从金融扩散到法律、保险、医疗、工业、供应链，AI capex 就有更可靠审计的回报路径。

但如果它只停留在金融和少数高价值行业，那 AI 仍然是高端生产力工具，不足以支撑全市场对 AI 基础设施的全部乐观定价。

$GOOG $AMZN $MSFT $SOXX $IGV $INTC

$IGV Bear Market is OVER!

If you played, you're paid.

Posted one day before the bottom.

So many A+ Setups forming in SaaS-Land.

RonnieV: Politicians are buying $MSFT calls.

Options flow is loading $IGV calls.

RSI at 2008 & 2022 levels.

Williams %R just hit the green barrier again.

Software has now completed the same measured move as the 2022 bear market.

Not calling bottom.

But historically… this zone has

It wasn't bottom but it sure was close to it...

$IGV Weekly "Bull Trigger" just printed.

Get ready SaaS-Geddon may finally be over!

Monthly Chart below...

RonnieV: Politicians are buying $MSFT calls.

Options flow is loading $IGV calls.

RSI at 2008 & 2022 levels.

Williams %R just hit the green barrier again.

Software has now completed the same measured move as the 2022 bear market.

Not calling bottom.

But historically… this zone has

If you missed Semis parabolic run here are 5 undervalued sectors ready to run next…

1. SaaS/ Tech Services - $IGV $MSFT $ZETA $SHOP

2. Fintech - $HOOD $SOFI $DLO

3. Cyber - $CRWD $PANW $FTNT

4. Crytpo - $BTC $ETH $MSTR $BMNR

5. Healthcare - $UNH $OSCR $NVO $HIMS

Stop worrying about what could have been and focus on what could be friends.

Anthropic发布Claude Design 导致 $ADBE $FIG 大跌。

所以 $IGV 虽然在轧空，但还是有危险的，选择他已经发布过的领域😳

Wall St Engine: Anthropic Labs launched Claude Design, a new product for creating visual assets, prototypes, slides, and one-pagers with Claude.

It is rolling out in research preview to Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise users, powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

$ADBE $FIG

✍️ $MSFT $IGV

RonnieV: Politicians are buying $MSFT calls.

Options flow is loading $IGV calls.

RSI at 2008 & 2022 levels.

Williams %R just hit the green barrier again.

Software has now completed the same measured move as the 2022 bear market.

Not calling bottom.

But historically… this zone has

Results speak for themselves.

23 Daily "Bull Triggers" printed.
20 green today 🟢🐂

Leaders:
$HIMS +17%+
$SMR +14%
$TE +9%
$PINS +8%+
$ZETA +7%+
$TSLA +7%
$LAES +7%
$IGV +4%+

Losers were microscopic.

The edge isn't guessing.
It's having the signals early.

Fully Automated Alerts posted live inside the Collective (Link in Bio)

Bottom on SaaS could be in.

I’m seeing heavy buying.

$MSFT $IGV $NOW $ZETA $PATH $NET

This post aged well. 🤝

RonnieV: Politicians are buying $MSFT calls.

Options flow is loading $IGV calls.

RSI at 2008 & 2022 levels.

Williams %R just hit the green barrier again.

Software has now completed the same measured move as the 2022 bear market.

Not calling bottom.

But historically… this zone has

Futures were ugly. Now they aren’t as ugly.

I wonder if the market might be holding back from pricing in the worst.

More escalation, higher oil, bad for stocks.

Trump has obviously escalated with the blockade.

S&P really not acting like he did…maybe tomorrow morning is when the real action begins but there may be a world where the markets, once again, believe Trump is using this to negotiate and are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt to enter “Round 2” of negotiations.

If we full on escalate at the Strait and start fighting back and forth, it would feel bearish. Trump’s posts make you think that would happen.

The market…which just pulled a +7% move in 2 weeks and took many sectors down like SaaS, might not easily just give back that gain because of the amount of people willing to 1) buy oversold sectors like $IGV and 2) bet that Trump doesn’t go all the way.

Do you think we go back to March 30th lows?

This is all of software today.

It's ugly, but once again it is rooted in a very programmed (literally, algorithmically programmed) belief that the markets have about software in the age of AI.

Once again, if the market believes Claude will destroy every software company, then the amount of compute we need should be 1000x what it is today. $NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and other chip names should not be trading at the multiples they are at.

If the market doesn't actually believe AI will completely ruin software, then the discounts on the software are probably too extreme. Not to say that they need to return to the highs from years ago because there obviously has been a shift, but to ruthlessly take down all of software seems to be aggressive.

I wouldn't be long $IGV but I would try to identify the best software names that are being unnecessarily treated as legacy IT with no future. Obviously, I don't think $PLTR deserves this type of treatment given how it has differentiated itself from every other software company. I also don't think $CRWD or $PANW deserve to get wrecked when AI will only create a deeper need for cybersecurity.

I also don't think $ORCL, which has $300B in RPO from OpenAI, just did 30K layoffs, and down more than 50% from the highs deserves to be getting hit this hard, especially when other neoclouds (one could argue that Oracle is the ultimate neocloud) are being seen positively from the market. But because Oracle has a software part to the business...it gets sold off.

It's a stock pickers market in software but you just have to be able to try to find the names that aren't destroyed because of AI but rather only will accelerate earnings growth because of AI.

$PLTR Palantir down 12% over the past 2 days, here’s what I think is going on:

- I don’t think Palantir is down because of the “war being over.” Other defense contractors are up after the ceasefire and this conflict only proved that demand for defense tech will be much, much greater over the next decade. This likely isn’t the reason.

- No massive insider selling over the past few weeks. Didn’t see any major selling yesterday either on the initial drop. This could be a fund unwinding part of their position and taking profits, but not huge insider selling. Insider selling has rarely affected the stock, Thiel sold 2M shares at $140 last month and the stock didn’t budge.

- The major reason it seems to be down stems from a new product that Anthropic has released around multi-agent orchestration. I haven’t studied the product in depth, but I don’t think the market has either. $CRM $ADBE $NOW all software names hit a new 52-week low today. $IGV, the software index, has $MSFT and $PLTR as the top 1 and 2 positions. Naturally when there is a software selloff, those two names will get hit hard. Now, I don’t think Microsoft (even with their copilot issues) deserves to be down 30% from the highs. I also don’t think Palantir (valuation is aggressive and could also be a reason for a selloff, but valuation has always been aggressive) which is doing 70% topline rev growth with 50% adjusted operating margins deserves to be down this much either. I know people are pointing to a Burry post about Palantir (which he now deleted) comparing them to Anthropic, but I think Burry doesn’t actually understand Palantir. He still thinks they can’t be an AI company if they don’t produce a LLM. He is also short so his incentive is to make people sell.

Ultimately, don’t really see the reason for this outside of Palantir being lumped in with the index and unless their growth slows down, which we have seen zero signs of and not to also mention Palantir has the BEST growth in the entire software sector at 70%, then this selloff feels more systemic across the industry vs isolated to Palantir.

$130 has been good support, if we lose $120 then I can imagine things getting uglier but staying above $130 is a decent baseline for the name.