🚨THE BEARS HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR THREE YEARS.

And they’re about to be wrong again.

Morgan Stanley just raised their S&P 500 target to 8,300.

Year-end 2026 target: 8,000.
Twelve-month target: 8,300.

Over 12% upside from current levels around 7,400.

But here’s the line that matters most:

“Our bullish index view is an earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.”

Read that again.

EARNINGS.

> 83.2% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates.

> Morgan Stanley projects $339 EPS for 2026. That’s 23% growth, followed by $380 in 2027 and $429 in 2028.

A compounding earnings machine. Not a bubble.

Now let me show you what the bears keep getting wrong.

There’s a clip making the rounds right now.

A guy pulls up two charts side by side.

> Left chart: The dot-com era. Price ripping higher. Earnings flatlined. Pure narrative. Pure multiple expansion. Pure speculation.

> Right chart: Right now, 2023-2026. Earnings are LEADING price. AI and semiconductors are driving actual profits. Price is still CATCHING UP to the gray line.

His point? We’re not in a bubble. We’re in the middle of an earnings cycle that hasn’t fully repriced yet.

He’s right.

$MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix and Samsung, 75% of the $DRAM market are proof.

These are companies printing money faster than analysts can revise targets upward.

> The memory supercycle isn’t priced in.

> The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t priced in.

The earnings are real and the multiples are still compressing INTO the growth.

The dot-com bubble was speculation in search of earnings.

This is earnings in search of a price that can catch up.

There’s a massive difference.

So where does the money go?

$SPY and $QQQ as a passive bet + into the infrastructure that’s CAUSING the earnings surge.

Here’s where I’m positioned:

→ $IREN
→ $NBIS
→ $CIFR
→ $AAOI
→ $SIVE
→ $RKLB
→ $OUST
→ $PENG
→ $ONDS
→ $KRKNF

Every single one of these names sits inside the structural AI buildout that’s driving the future earnings Morgan Stanley just upgraded their entire index outlook for.

HERE’S THE MACRO SETUP

Morgan Stanley explicitly ties their revised outlook to AI adoption enhancing operating leverage across the S&P 500 and a rolling earnings recovery that continues to progress.

This isn’t a macro call. This is a capital allocation call.

The earnings cycle is real.
The infrastructure buildout is real.
The defense spending acceleration is real.

$QQQ and $SPY tell you the tide is coming in.

The names above tell you which boats rise the most.

The dot-com bubble was price without earnings.

This is earnings without price.

The gray line hasn’t been touched yet.

We’re mid-cycle. Act accordingly.

Still long. Still adding. Still building.

-BP

Please remember: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold positions in many of the names mentioned.

Micro2Macr0: Why this Is NOTHING Like the Dot-Com Bubble!!! 😡

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.

2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.

3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.

4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.

5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.

6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.

7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.

8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.

9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.

10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.

11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.

12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.