$PLTR Palantir down 12% over the past 2 days, here’s what I think is going on:
- I don’t think Palantir is down because of the “war being over.” Other defense contractors are up after the ceasefire and this conflict only proved that demand for defense tech will be much, much greater over the next decade. This likely isn’t the reason.
- No massive insider selling over the past few weeks. Didn’t see any major selling yesterday either on the initial drop. This could be a fund unwinding part of their position and taking profits, but not huge insider selling. Insider selling has rarely affected the stock, Thiel sold 2M shares at $140 last month and the stock didn’t budge.
- The major reason it seems to be down stems from a new product that Anthropic has released around multi-agent orchestration. I haven’t studied the product in depth, but I don’t think the market has either. $CRM $ADBE $NOW all software names hit a new 52-week low today. $IGV, the software index, has $MSFT and $PLTR as the top 1 and 2 positions. Naturally when there is a software selloff, those two names will get hit hard. Now, I don’t think Microsoft (even with their copilot issues) deserves to be down 30% from the highs. I also don’t think Palantir (valuation is aggressive and could also be a reason for a selloff, but valuation has always been aggressive) which is doing 70% topline rev growth with 50% adjusted operating margins deserves to be down this much either. I know people are pointing to a Burry post about Palantir (which he now deleted) comparing them to Anthropic, but I think Burry doesn’t actually understand Palantir. He still thinks they can’t be an AI company if they don’t produce a LLM. He is also short so his incentive is to make people sell.
Ultimately, don’t really see the reason for this outside of Palantir being lumped in with the index and unless their growth slows down, which we have seen zero signs of and not to also mention Palantir has the BEST growth in the entire software sector at 70%, then this selloff feels more systemic across the industry vs isolated to Palantir.
$130 has been good support, if we lose $120 then I can imagine things getting uglier but staying above $130 is a decent baseline for the name.
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