$NVO - Still too cheap?
The Oral Wegovy launch is blowing past analysts expectations. To meet Novo's sales estimate for 2026, $BAC estimated that Novo needs about 2000 prescriptions per week.
Last week's Symphony sales data showed that in the 2nd week, that number was already more than 10X'd. IQVIA showed a similar trend with 18410 TRx.
Keep in mind, this is incomplete data as this does not include NovoCare or Teleheath sales. The actual sales number is even higher.
There's also been a huge uptick in US web-search for Wegovy, confirming the high interest in the pill in these early weeks.
Overall, $NVO has really nailed the launch of the Wegovy pill. Capacity is not a problem, as they've been preparing for years to be ready for this launch. There are more than enough pills to meet demand.
This is not just $LLY's market anymore. Surveyed physicians see a near 50/50 in the oral obesity market between Novo and Lilly in the upcoming years.
With all this positive news, I believe the strong sales number should offset price decreases and the pressure on margins in the upcoming years. But beware we start doing victory laps, let's first see how this will reflect in 2026-guidance in the upcoming earnings report.
In my humble opinion, $NVO's deserves a re-rating based on all of the above. While the forward PE has seen a slight rerating already, I still believe a PE of 25/30 would be justified if they can regain sustained growth in the upcoming years.
That would easily put the stock around the $80-$100 level, and I think it might happen sooner than we think.
What do you think? Am I being too optimistic here?
The Oral Wegovy launch is blowing past analysts expectations. To meet Novo's sales estimate for 2026, $BAC estimated that Novo needs about 2000 prescriptions per week.
Last week's Symphony sales data showed that in the 2nd week, that number was already more than 10X'd. IQVIA showed a similar trend with 18410 TRx.
Keep in mind, this is incomplete data as this does not include NovoCare or Teleheath sales. The actual sales number is even higher.
There's also been a huge uptick in US web-search for Wegovy, confirming the high interest in the pill in these early weeks.
Overall, $NVO has really nailed the launch of the Wegovy pill. Capacity is not a problem, as they've been preparing for years to be ready for this launch. There are more than enough pills to meet demand.
This is not just $LLY's market anymore. Surveyed physicians see a near 50/50 in the oral obesity market between Novo and Lilly in the upcoming years.
With all this positive news, I believe the strong sales number should offset price decreases and the pressure on margins in the upcoming years. But beware we start doing victory laps, let's first see how this will reflect in 2026-guidance in the upcoming earnings report.
In my humble opinion, $NVO's deserves a re-rating based on all of the above. While the forward PE has seen a slight rerating already, I still believe a PE of 25/30 would be justified if they can regain sustained growth in the upcoming years.
That would easily put the stock around the $80-$100 level, and I think it might happen sooner than we think.
What do you think? Am I being too optimistic here?
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$NVO - Still too cheap?
The Oral Wegovy launch is blowing past analysts expectations. To meet Novo's sales estimate for 2026, $BAC estimated that Novo needs about 2000 prescriptions per week.
Last week's Symphony sales data showed that in the 2nd week, that number was already more than 10X'd. IQVIA showed a similar trend with 18410 TRx.
Keep in mind, this is incomplete data as this does not include NovoCare or Teleheath sales. The actual sales number is even higher.
There's also been a huge uptick in US web-search for Wegovy, confirming the high interest in the pill in these early weeks.
Overall, $NVO has really nailed the launch of the Wegovy pill. Capacity is not a problem, as they've been preparing for years to be ready for this launch. There are more than enough pills to meet demand.
This is not just $LLY's market anymore. Surveyed physicians see a near 50/50 in the oral obesity market between Novo and Lilly in the upcoming years.
With all this positive news, I believe the strong sales number should offset price decreases and the pressure on margins in the upcoming years. But beware we start doing victory laps, let's first see how this will reflect in 2026-guidance in the upcoming earnings report.
In my humble opinion, $NVO's deserves a re-rating based on all of the above. While the forward PE has seen a slight rerating already, I still believe a PE of 25/30 would be justified if they can regain sustained growth in the upcoming years.
That would easily put the stock around the $80-$100 level, and I think it might happen sooner than we think.
What do you think? Am I being too optimistic here?
$NVO - Still too cheap?
The Oral Wegovy launch is blowing past analysts expectations. To meet Novo's sales estimate for 2026, $BAC estimated that Novo needs about 2000 prescriptions per week.
Last week's Symphony sales data showed that in the 2nd week, that number was already more than 10X'd. IQVIA showed a similar trend with 18410 TRx.
Keep in mind, this is incomplete data as this does not include NovoCare or Teleheath sales. The actual sales number is even higher.
There's also been a huge uptick in US web-search for Wegovy, confirming the high interest in the pill in these early weeks.
Overall, $NVO has really nailed the launch of the Wegovy pill. Capacity is not a problem, as they've been preparing for years to be ready for this launch. There are more than enough pills to meet demand.
This is not just $LLY's market anymore. Surveyed physicians see a near 50/50 in the oral obesity market between Novo and Lilly in the upcoming years.
With all this positive news, I believe the strong sales number should offset price decreases and the pressure on margins in the upcoming years. But beware we start doing victory laps, let's first see how this will reflect in 2026-guidance in the upcoming earnings report.
In my humble opinion, $NVO's deserves a re-rating based on all of the above. While the forward PE has seen a slight rerating already, I still believe a PE of 25/30 would be justified if they can regain sustained growth in the upcoming years.
That would easily put the stock around the $80-$100 level, and I think it might happen sooner than we think.
What do you think? Am I being too optimistic here?
Show More