Let’s be real here…

Every AI data center Nvidia ever builds needs optical transceivers to move data between GPUs.

Not because of GPU performance.
Not because of CUDA software.
Not because of rack density.

Because of physics. Electrical signals cannot move data at the bandwidth AI clusters require over distances greater than a few meters. Light can.

$INTC own data center documentation confirms fiber optic interconnects at 800G+ are required for every GPU cluster at scale.

Demand for 800G transceivers is STRONG with volume ramps underway in 2026.

$AAOI is still ONLY approximately $15B compared to peers as $LITE $COHR $CIEN at +50$B.

The GPU market is $500B+. The company supplying the optical layer those GPUs depend on for data movement is at $15B.

Rosenblatt raised their price target to $220 in May 2026, up from $140 in March.

Current price implies limited upside on Rosenblatt’s numbers relative to earlier valuations.

Now execution matters.Either the AI GPU capex cycle delivers the optical component volume the data suggests, or it doesn’t.

At current market cap vs. the $500B+ infrastructure build, valuations reflect much of the outcome.

But when execution follows $AAOI will easily run past $280, $300, $320, $350, $400.

I’m long $AAOI.

-BP

Save this.

Not financial advice. DYOR.

Renaissance Technologies (founded by Jim Simons) Q1 2026 13F

買入最多的股票：
$AAPL：+7.81 億美元
$NVDA：+2.78 億美元
$LIN：+2.58 億美元
$AVGO：+2.45 億美元
$AGI：+2.27 億美元
$JPM：+2.02 億美元

賣出最多的股票（約）：
$NFLX：-6.73 億美元
$PLTR：-5.42 億美元
$TSLA：-5.34 億美元
$PG：-4.28 億美元
$COST：-5.78 億美元
$MSFT：-3.29億美元
看來他們正在轉向大型科技股、能源股和黃金股，同時減持消費股和動量股。

A friend texted me this week:

“Did you see $AAOI? What happened?”

What happened is that I bought it at $90 and he didn’t.

He’s not a bad investor. He’s a smart person.

He looked at $AAOI when I first mentioned it and said:

“It’s a small photonics company. The market cap is tiny. Too risky.”

I said: “The market cap is tiny because the market hasn’t priced the BOTTLENECK yet.”

Data centers at hyperscale cannot move AI-speed data between chips using copper.

The physics fail at that bandwidth. Optical transceivers are not optional, they are required by the laws of physics.

$AAOI manufactures the laser components that make it work.

> $124M in 800G transceiver orders from a single hyperscaler.

> 2026 guidance at $1B+. Rosenblatt raised to $220.

> Stock at $191 today from a $90 entry.

He said: “I should have listened.”

He had the same information I had.

The difference was the framework.

I’m still LONG.

The photonics bottleneck has not been solved. It is still playing out.

-BP

Not financial advice. Your money, your decision.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $CBRS Cerebras opened about 75% above its expected IPO price of $185, giving the AI chip company a roughly $100B market cap despite generating $585M in revenue last year. Ark Invest also bought 105,616 shares just one day after the IPO, adding more attention to the name. The momentum is set to continue with LeverageShares launching a 2x leveraged Cerebras ETF tomorrow morning.

2. President Trump submitted his latest stock purchase and sale disclosures to the White House Office of Ethics, with the filing reportedly spanning more than 100 pages and including thousands of trades. The disclosure is notable because it shows a sitting president actively trading individual securities rather than only holding assets like corporate debt, index funds, or Treasuries. Some of the names listed as purchases include $PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN, and $RKLB.

3. The U.S. has approved around 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s $NVDA H200, the company’s second-most powerful AI chip. Nvidia hit an all time high at $240 today.

4.Figure AI has been livestreaming its humanoid robots performing real warehouse-style package sorting tasks using its Helix-02 AI system. The robots pick up, scan, rotate, and place packages onto conveyor belts autonomously while operating for extremely long periods, including a reported 24/7 run after initially targeting an 8-hour shift. The livestream is meant to prove that humanoid robots can handle repetitive labor reliably and economically, rather than just perform flashy demos. Many viewers see it as one of the first convincing demonstrations of commercially viable humanoid labor, especially for warehouses and logistics. The robot has so far dealt with 34K packages live and has reached parity with a human worker that can do 3 every second.

5. The most traded stocks in the options market today were $NVDA with 5.0M contracts, $TSLA with 2.5M, $NOK with 889K, $F with 860K, $ONDS with 849K, $INTC with 814K, $AAPL with 752K, $MSFT with 736K, $MSTR with 670K, and $MU with 644K.

6. Semiconductor leverage flows surged, with $SOXL, the 3x long semiconductor ETF, taking in a record $1.03B on Tuesday. At the same time, $SOXS, the 3x short semiconductor ETF, saw $230M of outflows, its largest daily withdrawal since late March. $TQQQ also added $161M, its biggest inflow since March 31, but $SOXL inflows were more than 6x larger as traders concentrated bullish exposure in semiconductors. Since the March 30 bottom, $SOXL is up 354%, its strongest 31-day gain since launching in 2010, while the $SOX semiconductor index is up 68%, its third-best 31-day run on record.

7. Retail investors are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in years. Year-to-date retail equity inflows are ahead of every comparable period over the last seven years except 2021, and after slowing briefly in March, retail buying jumped sharply in April. The week ending May 1 ranked in the top 2% of weekly retail inflows since 2019, and at the current pace, individual investor purchases could surpass the 2021 record as soon as July. Retail options activity is also elevated, with average daily volume now at 1.57x January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 peak.

8. SpaceX could release its IPO prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC, after confidentially filing in April. The company’s roadshow is expected to start June 8, with SpaceX reportedly targeting one of the largest public offerings ever following its merger with xAI at a combined $1.25T valuation. The IPO could raise around $70B-$75B, which would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

9. AI data center demand is putting pressure on power costs across PJM, the largest U.S. grid, which serves 67M people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Wholesale power prices averaged $136.53/MWh in Q1 2026, up 75.5% from $77.78/MWh a year ago. Capacity costs rose 398.1% year-over-year, while congestion costs increased 300.4% to $2B.

10. Tech layoffs have now passed 100,000 in 2026, with TNW reporting cuts across roughly 250 events this year. LinkedIn is reducing headcount by about 5% despite 12% revenue growth, while Cloudflare is cutting more than 1,100 roles, or about 20% of its workforce. AI is becoming a major driver of the reset, with Challenger citing it as the top reason for job cuts in both March and April and linking AI to 49,135 announced layoffs so far this year.

11. President Trump said President Xi told him China will not supply military equipment to Iran and supports a peace agreement. Trump also said Xi offered to help mediate the situation and work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil flows.

12. The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee today in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill would create clearer federal rules for crypto, including when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. Crypto stocks rallied on the news, including Coinbase, as investors viewed it as a major step toward regulatory certainty. The bill still is not law and needs full Senate approval, House reconciliation, and final passage. The main fights now are over stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering rules, and ethics concerns tied to political figures profiting from crypto. $BTC Bitcoin passed $81,000.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

🚨THE BEARS HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT THE SAME THING FOR THREE YEARS.

And they’re about to be wrong again.

Morgan Stanley just raised their S&P 500 target to 8,300.

Year-end 2026 target: 8,000.
Twelve-month target: 8,300.

Over 12% upside from current levels around 7,400.

But here’s the line that matters most:

“Our bullish index view is an earnings story, not a multiple expansion one.”

Read that again.

EARNINGS.

> 83.2% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates.

> Morgan Stanley projects $339 EPS for 2026. That’s 23% growth, followed by $380 in 2027 and $429 in 2028.

A compounding earnings machine. Not a bubble.

Now let me show you what the bears keep getting wrong.

There’s a clip making the rounds right now.

A guy pulls up two charts side by side.

> Left chart: The dot-com era. Price ripping higher. Earnings flatlined. Pure narrative. Pure multiple expansion. Pure speculation.

> Right chart: Right now, 2023-2026. Earnings are LEADING price. AI and semiconductors are driving actual profits. Price is still CATCHING UP to the gray line.

His point? We’re not in a bubble. We’re in the middle of an earnings cycle that hasn’t fully repriced yet.

He’s right.

$MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix and Samsung, 75% of the $DRAM market are proof.

These are companies printing money faster than analysts can revise targets upward.

> The memory supercycle isn’t priced in.

> The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t priced in.

The earnings are real and the multiples are still compressing INTO the growth.

The dot-com bubble was speculation in search of earnings.

This is earnings in search of a price that can catch up.

There’s a massive difference.

So where does the money go?

$SPY and $QQQ as a passive bet + into the infrastructure that’s CAUSING the earnings surge.

Here’s where I’m positioned:

→ $IREN
→ $NBIS
→ $CIFR
→ $AAOI
→ $SIVE
→ $RKLB
→ $OUST
→ $PENG
→ $ONDS
→ $KRKNF

Every single one of these names sits inside the structural AI buildout that’s driving the future earnings Morgan Stanley just upgraded their entire index outlook for.

HERE’S THE MACRO SETUP

Morgan Stanley explicitly ties their revised outlook to AI adoption enhancing operating leverage across the S&P 500 and a rolling earnings recovery that continues to progress.

This isn’t a macro call. This is a capital allocation call.

The earnings cycle is real.
The infrastructure buildout is real.
The defense spending acceleration is real.

$QQQ and $SPY tell you the tide is coming in.

The names above tell you which boats rise the most.

The dot-com bubble was price without earnings.

This is earnings without price.

The gray line hasn’t been touched yet.

We’re mid-cycle. Act accordingly.

Still long. Still adding. Still building.

-BP

Please remember: This is not financial advice. Do your own research. I hold positions in many of the names mentioned.

Micro2Macr0: Why this Is NOTHING Like the Dot-Com Bubble!!! 😡

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SUBMITTED HIS STOCK PURCHASES/SALES TO THE WHITE HOUSE OFFICE OF ETHICS.

The document is over 100 pages and has thousands of trades.

This is one of the first times we've seen a sitting President actively trade securities and not just sit in corporate debt, index funds, or treasuries.

Here are some of the names that Trump bought:

$PLTR, $HOOD, $NVDA, $SOFI, $MSFT, $AAPL, $DIS, $V, $ULTA, $JPM, $COIN, $LYFT, $AMZN.

$NVDA x US x China agreement.

My thesis is; this is probably in exchange for Iran peace.

If I expect market to fly, and my strategy will be to take some profit, before a dip.

Lets go $IREN $NBIS $AAOI $OUST $PENG $CIFR $RKLB

-BP

Not financial advice.

0xNobler: 🚨 BREAKING

🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S. JUST APPROVED CHINESE COMPANIES TO BUY NVIDIA CHIPS!

INSIDERS REPORT THEY WILL OFFICIALLY LIFT ALL EXPORT RESTRICTIONS, AND TRADING BANS.

CHINA ACCOUNTED FOR 25% OF NVIDIA REVENUE BEFORE THE SANCTIONS.

$NVDA STOCK JUST WENT PARABOLIC ONCE AGAIN!!

PORTFOLIO UPDATE

If you followed me this year, your short-term portfolio is up 125%.

Your long-term book is up 55%.

I don’t use options, calls, leap, short e.g.

The $SPX has spent most of 2026 trying to figure out what it is. We have not.

WHY I SHOW UP EVERY DAY

1st January I had 1,207 followers. Today we are approaching 23,000.

No subscription. No paid community. No X payout. No product. Just showing up every day and doing the work.

I made a pact with my daughter to show up every single day. To show her what consistency actually builds. Not in theory. In real time, with a number she can watch move.

I have a good job. I don’t need to monetize this. What I need is to show her what happens when you commit to something and don’t quit.

By EOY, I want her to see 50K on that number.

I’m still far from it. I also know how FAST that can change when the content connects and the market moves. So I keep going.

@Sandeman52 is someone I think about here. He built something real without noise.

That’s the benchmark. I’m here for the stocks, the connection, and the game.

Everything else is secondary.

LONG-TERM PORTFOLIO

Eight positions. All structural. Sold $AMPX today with 30% profit. Added to my positions in $KRKNF, $OUST and $ONDS

$RKLB: +83% | 18.51% of port.
$NBIS +142% | 17.09% of port.
$IREN +55% | 13.61% of port.
$AAOI +113% | 12.11% of port.
$OUST +39% | 11.60% of port.
$CIFR +42% | 10.41% of port.
$KRKNF -17% | 9.14% of port.
$ONDS -1% | 7.52% of port.

SHORT-TERM PORTFOLIO:

$PENG +10% | 66.1% of port.
$SIVE +98% | 33.9% of port.

HOW I SEE THE REST OF 2026

Three forces are running the tape:

1. The AI tsunami is still in the first inning.

Only 1% of companies consider themselves mature AI users. Over 92% plan to increase AI investment. McKinsey estimates cumulative US data center spending alone will reach $5 trillion by 2030. That capital is already committed. The infrastructure phase is being priced. The productivity phase hasn’t arrived yet. The application phase is after that.

I don’t see a dot-com bubble. The dot-com companies burned cash on speculation. The companies in this cycle have real revenue, real backlog, and real physical constraints that large capital cannot route around.

2. Political trade has replaced free trade.

This is the structural shift most retail investors are still underweighting.
Real technology, real projects, real contracts. Political decision in Washington and repriced overnight. That is the new operating environment.

Capital allocation now has a new first-order variable: political geography. Which government wants this to succeed? The US-UAE AI Acceleration Partnership, $1.4 trillion committed, sovereign wealth choosing the US as the headquarters of the next industrial era, is the clearest current signal.

Political trade creates volatility in names exposed to the wrong jurisdiction. It creates structural advantage for names embedded in the right one.

3. The economy is shifting from consumption-driven to production-driven.

The post-WWII consumer economy ran for 80 years on demand expansion. What is building now is a production expansion cycle, driven by onshoring, defense spending, AI infrastructure, and energy security.

The companies that build, enable, or supply that production cycle are not being valued for what they are today. They are being valued for what the production economy needs them to be in 2028 and beyond.

That is what this portfolio is built on.

MY POSITIONING FROM HERE

I expect more volatile than consensus expects. Full of buying opportunities for anything with hard assets and contracted revenue. Adding on dips. Not selling on headlines.

The three forces above are not quarterly variables. They are decade-long structural shifts. Volatility between now and December is the mechanism that creates the next entry points or DCA opportunities.

YTD +55% long-term. +125% short-term.

And the cycle has barely started.

-BP

Note: This is not financial advice. I hold positions in all tickers mentioned.

PM looks insane! 🤯

Its only a couple of days since I posted my thesis on $PENG and took a position.

$PENG is smashing +20% in PM 🟢 And Wall Street is about to wake up.

Credit for $PENG goes to @pennycheck. Happy to share the ride with other first movers; @FinnStockinger @michaelsikand @CKCapitalxx

Others:

$AAOI above $200 now. 7% up in PM 🟢
$SIVE showing strength with 13% 🟢
$RKLB taking off with 7% 🟢
$NBIS hammering 4% 🟢
$OUST taking on 5% 🟢

I’m working on a extensive portfolio update. Tag along. Follow. Stay tuned.

Onwards,

-BP

Reminder: This is not financial advice.

Black Panther Capital: Wall Street haven’t figured $PENG role out yet.. when they do, it will explode.

Here’s everything you need to know and why $NVDA $AAOI $MU $SNDK will need to rely on them, at one point:

$PENG provides the *end-to-end architecture* required to make components work as a unified

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $QQQ underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.

2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.

3. $CME CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.

4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $CBRS. The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.

5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 3.0M, $MU with 1.0M, $INTC with 999K, $AAPL with 829K, $AMZN with 528K, $NOK with 499K, $NFLX with 494K, $MSFT with 451K, and $AMD with 436K.

6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $MSFT Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.

7. $DRAM became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $IBIT, which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $MU also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.

8. $GOOGL Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.

9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.

10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.

11. $PLTR Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.

12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$PENG up +18% in AH.

I hoped you listened and followed me.

-BP

Not financial advice.

Black Panther Capital: Wall Street haven’t figured $PENG role out yet.. when they do, it will explode.

Here’s everything you need to know and why $NVDA $AAOI $MU $SNDK will need to rely on them, at one point:

$PENG provides the *end-to-end architecture* required to make components work as a unified

Let me remind you of this today:

There’s no bubble.
Stop whining and being a 🐱.
We are going higher when retail 🐱 is out.

$IREN is a $200 stock.
$NBIS is a $400 stock.
$CIFR is a $100 stock.
$AAOI is a $600 stock.
$RKLB is a $500 stock.
$OUST is a $100 stock.
$PENG is a $150 stock.

Stop worrying. Breath. Relax.

Imagine where we are in 2030.

Long term mindset. Don’t let them shake you out.

That’s how strong markets, stay strong.

-BP

Reminder: This is not financial advice.

RT Investing visuals
A breakdown of the photonics value chain and best positioned business:

Layer 1: Materials & wafers
• $GLW
• $AXTI
• $IQE
• $AIXA
• $AMS

Layer 2: Core photonic devices
• $IPGP
• $COHR
• $LITE
• $LASR
• $SIVE

• Layer 3: Components & modules
• $AAOI
• $MTSI
• $FN
• $VIAV
• $LPTH

Layer 4: Systems & equipment
• $ASML
• $BESI
• $ASM
• $LPKF
• $MKS

Layer 5: Test, metrology & yield
• $CAMT
• $FORM
• $AEHR
• $ONTO
• $VIAV

Investing visuals: Photonics stocks are going parabolic:

• $LITE +1621%
• $AAOI +1434%
• $COHR +529%
• $CRDO +377%
• $VIAV +353%
• $FN +281%
• $MTSI +189%
• $MRVL +186%
• $IPGP +136%
• $POET +127%