Stocks are down big this morning on a WSJ report that OpenAI missed internal revenue targets at the end of 2025.
Few thoughts on why this might not be as bad as it is being interpreted:
- Part of the reason OpenAI did not meet its revenue backlog is because they did not have the proper compute needs. Jassy, Dario, and Altman have all said if they have more compute, they could grow faster. The bottleneck of energy/power/land seems to be a much bigger story than “missing revenue targets” because if the compute constrains are the reason for the miss, that’s an issue with supply, not demand.
- Maybe OpenAI missed internal forecasts because of $GOOGL and Anthropic seriously beginning to take marketshare. If that is true, that is NOT bearish semis/ai, that is more bearish OpenAI. The compute will just shift from OpenAI spending to Anthropic and Google spending. So, if OpenAI cancels a datacenter, it’s bad for the parties involved but if Google ends up taking up that datacenter, the same money continues to be spent on all the different providers that go into building out that compute.
- $SOXX just did 18 green days in a row. It was looking for ANY reason to sell off. Obviously some names have just gotten way ahead of themselves, for example $ARM, which began to trade at 70 p/s. The WSJ article may have been what was needed to give a reason to a selloff which quite frankly did not need a reason after the run it’s had.
Overall, feels more like a general headline about a company not fully living up to its expectations vs a systematic issue around compute constraints.
Big Tech reports on Wednesday and all eyes will be on what they have to say around capex, roi, growth, and more.
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