→ PORTFOLIO UPDATE & REFLECTIONS:
In this update, I’ll cover:
1. The position I’ve sold from my LT portfolio.
2. The positions I’ve added to in my LT portfolio.
3. My approach to a potential government shutdown.
For my general macro thoughts on how and why I’ve built my portfolio, check out my previous portfolio update:
https://x.com/blackpanthercap/status/2010775283243102352?s=46
1. Sold position: $ZETA
I like $ZETA and believe the case remains strong. But for now, it’s dead. The tailwind in the defense sector is high, matching my conviction, so I’ll ride that every day. Proceeds redirected to strengthen other holdings.
2. Added to positions:
$ONDS, $KRKNF, and $OSS used funds from $ZETA sale to increase allocations in these names.
My conviction remains strong in their respective sectors, particularly defense and related tech.
3. Handling potential government shutdown:
Government shutdowns usually weaken the dollar.
Not because the U.S. disappears overnight, but because uncertainty spikes and trust drops.
Investors often move money into gold and other currencies when politics look dysfunctional.
The good part: a weaker dollar actually helps the real economy.
Exports get more competitive, domestic production becomes more attractive, and U.S. companies gain pricing power abroad.
History matters here.
Stocks often wobble short term during shutdowns, but the pattern is clear:
Markets tend to recover once the shutdown ends. Even long shutdowns haven’t derailed equities for long. (See attached pictures)
This time, the dollar is already at a four-year low due to tariffs and policy risk.
A shutdown adds pressure short term, but it should not change the longer-term tendency for markets to stabilize and move on.
In short-term: It doesn’t matter.
I plan to…
> Stick with positions such as $ONDS, $IREN, $ASTS, $TE, and $NBIS. No selling since conviction stays high.
> Watch VIX jumps over 20 for possible cheap entry points if these names dip hard on broad risk-off moves.
> Check fiscal headlines daily for quick resolution signs to spot when vol drops and rebounds kick in.
> Hold extra cash on the side for buying dips in these holdings if they weaken temporarily without fundamentals changing.
> Track company-specific drivers like AI/infra demand for $IREN and $NBIS, or defense/tech ties for the others, to double-check thesis during wobble.
Long-Term Portfolio Overview:
$IREN (26.8%)
$CIFR (10.3%)
$NBIS (11.3%)
$ASTS (11.3%)
$TE (10.3%)
$ONDS (10.3%)
$OSS (9.3%)
$KRKNF (10.3%)
Short-Term Portfolio Overview:
$IBRX (100%)
My conviction in $IBRX remains high for now. The asymmetric bet holds, with potential for quick gains amid market volatility.
I’ll monitor sentiment and developments closely to adjust if needed.
Considerations at the moment:
Volatility expected from political developments. Fundamentals unchanged for core holdings. U.S.-focused strategy intact, emphasizing AI, energy, and defense tech.
Note: This is not financial advice.
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