🚨RECESSION WARNING:
The latest job openings data just dropped.
Everyone’s panicking.
“Disaster levels.”
“Below 2001 recession.”
“Brace for impact.”
Let me explain why this is the dumbest bear case I’ve heard all year.
The math everyone’s missing:
Job openings fell from 2.0 openings per unemployed person to 1.0.
That’s not collapse.
That’s normalization.
Post-pandemic, we had:
• Early retirements
• Immigration freeze
• Mass labor hoarding
• Firms posting jobs they couldn’t fill
The ratio hitting 1.0 means we’re returning to equilibrium.
Not disaster. Rebalancing.
Here’s what actually matters:
• Unemployment: 4.4% (near historic lows)
• GDP growth: 2.2-2.5% (reaccelerating)
• Core PCE: 2.1% (falling toward target)
• Yield curve: +0.72% (un-inverted, bull steepening)
Goldman just cut their recession probability from 30% to 20%.
That’s 1/5!
Fed is cutting rates because inflation is controlled.
This is a soft landing, not a crash.
Job openings are falling because firms don’t need to hire.
They’re buying compute instead of labor.
AI Engineer jobs: +143% YoY.
Productivity gains from AI: 0.3-3.0% annually.
This is “jobless growth”—GDP expanding through efficiency, not headcount.
Same thing happened in the early 2000s.
The Pattern Repeats:
1920s:
Telephone operators disappeared → Telecom industry created millions of jobs
1800s:
Hand weavers replaced → Garment manufacturing exploded
2020s:
Admin roles automated → AI Agent Architects emerge
Every time, the new jobs created > jobs lost.
While everyone panics about job openings,
I’m watching:
$GOOG - AI productivity tools.
$NVDA - The picks and shovels (survey shows that 81% of respondents across healthcare/life sciences reported AI increased revenue.
$GEHC - AI-powered diagnostics (treating 2,000+ more patients/year per hospital)
These aren’t just stocks.
They’re the infrastructure of the productivity boom that’s already happening.
Both breadth lines trend upward in the 2-year view, with breadth recovering from mid-2025 lows around 30-40% during the dip, while the index climbs steadily from ~5,000 to 6,932.
Breadth at these levels (above 60-65%) supports SUSTAINABLE bullish conditions rather than fragile narrow rallies.
Historical overbought thresholds near 80%+ signal caution, but current readings remain constructive for CONTINUED upside with wider leadership.
The bottom line:
> Job openings normalizing = healthy
> Unemployment at 4.4% = strong
> Yield curve positive = soft landing
> AI productivity gains = structural tailwind
> Breadth haven’t been better past 2 years.
“Recession warning” posts get engagement.
Data says otherwise.
I’m not bracing for impact.
I’m loading the boat on the companies building the cognitive revolution.
Still buying $IREN $CIFR $TE $ONDS
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Black Panther Capital: 🚨THIS IS BS….
Everyone’s freaking out about market volatility, while they’re missing the biggest economic shift since the Industrial Revolution.
This isn’t a crisis. It’s revolutionary friction.
Let me break down what’s actually happening:
> US Manufacturing PMI: 52.6% (Jan
The latest job openings data just dropped.
Everyone’s panicking.
“Disaster levels.”
“Below 2001 recession.”
“Brace for impact.”
Let me explain why this is the dumbest bear case I’ve heard all year.
The math everyone’s missing:
Job openings fell from 2.0 openings per unemployed person to 1.0.
That’s not collapse.
That’s normalization.
Post-pandemic, we had:
• Early retirements
• Immigration freeze
• Mass labor hoarding
• Firms posting jobs they couldn’t fill
The ratio hitting 1.0 means we’re returning to equilibrium.
Not disaster. Rebalancing.
Here’s what actually matters:
• Unemployment: 4.4% (near historic lows)
• GDP growth: 2.2-2.5% (reaccelerating)
• Core PCE: 2.1% (falling toward target)
• Yield curve: +0.72% (un-inverted, bull steepening)
Goldman just cut their recession probability from 30% to 20%.
That’s 1/5!
Fed is cutting rates because inflation is controlled.
This is a soft landing, not a crash.
Job openings are falling because firms don’t need to hire.
They’re buying compute instead of labor.
AI Engineer jobs: +143% YoY.
Productivity gains from AI: 0.3-3.0% annually.
This is “jobless growth”—GDP expanding through efficiency, not headcount.
Same thing happened in the early 2000s.
The Pattern Repeats:
1920s:
Telephone operators disappeared → Telecom industry created millions of jobs
1800s:
Hand weavers replaced → Garment manufacturing exploded
2020s:
Admin roles automated → AI Agent Architects emerge
Every time, the new jobs created > jobs lost.
While everyone panics about job openings,
I’m watching:
$GOOG - AI productivity tools.
$NVDA - The picks and shovels (survey shows that 81% of respondents across healthcare/life sciences reported AI increased revenue.
$GEHC - AI-powered diagnostics (treating 2,000+ more patients/year per hospital)
These aren’t just stocks.
They’re the infrastructure of the productivity boom that’s already happening.
Both breadth lines trend upward in the 2-year view, with breadth recovering from mid-2025 lows around 30-40% during the dip, while the index climbs steadily from ~5,000 to 6,932.
Breadth at these levels (above 60-65%) supports SUSTAINABLE bullish conditions rather than fragile narrow rallies.
Historical overbought thresholds near 80%+ signal caution, but current readings remain constructive for CONTINUED upside with wider leadership.
The bottom line:
> Job openings normalizing = healthy
> Unemployment at 4.4% = strong
> Yield curve positive = soft landing
> AI productivity gains = structural tailwind
> Breadth haven’t been better past 2 years.
“Recession warning” posts get engagement.
Data says otherwise.
I’m not bracing for impact.
I’m loading the boat on the companies building the cognitive revolution.
Still buying $IREN $CIFR $TE $ONDS
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Black Panther Capital: 🚨THIS IS BS….
Everyone’s freaking out about market volatility, while they’re missing the biggest economic shift since the Industrial Revolution.
This isn’t a crisis. It’s revolutionary friction.
Let me break down what’s actually happening:
> US Manufacturing PMI: 52.6% (Jan
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