RT TacticzHazel
Here is why I believe:
$PLTR is still not a buy
$TSLA is still not a buy
$HIMS is still not a buy
$ASTS is still not a buy
$ASML is still not a buy
$BMNR is still not a buy
$MSTR is still not a buy
$SOFI is still not a buy
Even though we've seen a big correction in certain parts of the market, I think a lot of hyper-growth and narrative oriented companies are still rather expensive.
To be fair, some of the companies I named in my last post (3rd of Jan) have a better risk/reward now than back in January.
But I think the risk/reward for most of these is still skewed to the downside. And very heavily for some of them.
A lot more than people might think.
Since my last post, these are the results:
$ASML +9%
$ASTS +9%
$TSLA - 9%
$SOFI - 31%
$PLTR -31%
$MSTR - 37%
$HIMS -38%
$BMNR -47%
(quite funny that the one company I do own actually did well)
Entering in these companies, albeit usually still more speculative than I personally like, should be done with caution.
Entering during market downturns and stretches of bad sentiment works better than piling in right now when we are still in a somewhat euphoric state of mind.
We've had 9 consecutive months of positive returns in the market. 2023,2024 and 2025 were amazing.
2026?
Who knows.
But this market going straight up won't last.
We are seeing big cracks right now.
You can expect 70/80% crashes in your high beta holdings when the market does a 10-15% draw-down.
You need balls to hold onto you companies and stock when that happens.
And you need big ones.
Although I think a lot of investors think they have a good chunky sack to hold onto.
The truth will only be revealed during a big downturn.
A lot of sacks will get humbled.
I believe that if we get a reset, we get a hard one.
These ''narrative''-companies will get absolutely smashed. Just like in 2021 and 2022.
I'm not at all negative looking at the long-term picture of ETH and BTC. But I'd highly prefer holding the actual coins over $BMNR and $MSTR. Just leveraged bets on BTC and ETH, with the sole benefit of profiting the early investors, and doomed to fail.
$TSLA good be a long-term winner, if Elon's promises come true.
$SOFI is not a bad company at all, but valuation is not where I'd like to see it.
$ASTS is a bet on the future. But priced for perfection
Same for $PLTR.
If they can execute. It will hold.
But as soon as you get a small dent in the thesis, it will crumble.
$ASML is my largest holding, and was part of the list to prove a point. Even my largest holding and arguable the most important company in the world can be too expensive to buy. I still stand behind that.
To be completely fair, the ones I recommend and liked better didn't do too well either:
$META +3%
$RACE -7%
$DLO - 14%
$SE -22%
$NVO - 24%
$CSU -24%
$NBIS - 29%
That does not invalidate the overall message in my opinion.
I believe these companies to be of much higher quality than the first list.
I'd still much rather hold thesecompanies than the hyper-growth narrative driven companies.
Do you agree?
TacticzHazel: Why I believe
$PLTR is NOT a buy right now
$TSLA is NOT a buy right now
$HIMS is NOT a buy right now
$ASTS is NOT a buy right now
$ASML is NOT a buy right now
$MSTR is NOT a buy right now
$BMNR is NOT a buy right now
$SOFI is NOT a buy right now
Valuation matters.
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