Wall Street talks about the hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT. That is where the headlines are.
But the money flows through the supply chain. Capex is tracking above $1 trillion this year.
That is six times the level of 2022
Here is the full stack, sector by sector, of who actually gets paid:
Power Infrastructure:
$IREN, $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF
The compute layer requires power first. These are the companies building and owning the megawatt-scale facilities that hyperscalers cannot build fast enough themselves.
Optical Networking:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, $POET
GPU clusters are useless without the interconnects that move data between them at 800G and 1.6T speeds. This sector is capacity-constrained and just had its export inputs tightened by China this week.
Space & Infrastructure:
$RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $SATL, $FLY, $ONDS, $KTOS
Golden Dome. Autonomous systems. Satellite constellations. The government is funding the next generation of distributed compute and surveillance infrastructure from orbit.
Critical Materials:
$AXTI, $ALMU
The raw substrate layer that the entire photonics stack sits on. Severely undersupplied. Almost zero retail coverage.
Launch & Deployment:
$RKLB, $ASTS
Getting infrastructure into orbit requires reliable, affordable launch. One company owns this market. The public comp is scaling fast.
Every sector on this list has either hyperscaler contract backing, government funding, or a physical supply constraint that makes demand inelastic.
Save this for later.
-BP
Please note this is not financial advice.
But the money flows through the supply chain. Capex is tracking above $1 trillion this year.
That is six times the level of 2022
Here is the full stack, sector by sector, of who actually gets paid:
Power Infrastructure:
$IREN, $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF
The compute layer requires power first. These are the companies building and owning the megawatt-scale facilities that hyperscalers cannot build fast enough themselves.
Optical Networking:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, $POET
GPU clusters are useless without the interconnects that move data between them at 800G and 1.6T speeds. This sector is capacity-constrained and just had its export inputs tightened by China this week.
Space & Infrastructure:
$RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $SATL, $FLY, $ONDS, $KTOS
Golden Dome. Autonomous systems. Satellite constellations. The government is funding the next generation of distributed compute and surveillance infrastructure from orbit.
Critical Materials:
$AXTI, $ALMU
The raw substrate layer that the entire photonics stack sits on. Severely undersupplied. Almost zero retail coverage.
Launch & Deployment:
$RKLB, $ASTS
Getting infrastructure into orbit requires reliable, affordable launch. One company owns this market. The public comp is scaling fast.
Every sector on this list has either hyperscaler contract backing, government funding, or a physical supply constraint that makes demand inelastic.
Save this for later.
-BP
Please note this is not financial advice.
Show More
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE have already run 150-250% and trade at extreme multiples.
The UPSTREAM play is where the undiscovered leverage sits.
Here is what most people are missing in the photonics chain:
Transceiver makers:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, visible, crowded, already priced for growth.
Laser / substrate suppliers:
$COHR InP fabs (Texas + Sweden), $AXTI (35% of global InP substrate supply)
Emerging platform plays:
$POET (optical interposer, integrates lasers and electronics on one chip, Foxconn-backed). $ALMU (Aeluma, compound semiconductor materials, defense + photonics)
Critical materials: InP wafer demand exceeds supply by 70%. China tightened export controls this week.
The companies sitting closest to the constraint are not the ones that already ran. The supply chain analysis points to what has not moved yet. The companies that control the material chokepoint tend to reprice when the downstream bottleneck becomes undeniable.
We are close to that moment.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice. Your money, your decision.
Paradis Labs: @babybluecream The real asymmetry to watch is if $POET lands a Tier-1 hyperscaler before the next dilutive raise?
If yes, the short squeeze potential on a ~$1B float name could be violent.
If no, I think the stock drifts toward cash value while longs rotate into $LITE, $MRVL, or $AAOI on
The UPSTREAM play is where the undiscovered leverage sits.
Here is what most people are missing in the photonics chain:
Transceiver makers:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, visible, crowded, already priced for growth.
Laser / substrate suppliers:
$COHR InP fabs (Texas + Sweden), $AXTI (35% of global InP substrate supply)
Emerging platform plays:
$POET (optical interposer, integrates lasers and electronics on one chip, Foxconn-backed). $ALMU (Aeluma, compound semiconductor materials, defense + photonics)
Critical materials: InP wafer demand exceeds supply by 70%. China tightened export controls this week.
The companies sitting closest to the constraint are not the ones that already ran. The supply chain analysis points to what has not moved yet. The companies that control the material chokepoint tend to reprice when the downstream bottleneck becomes undeniable.
We are close to that moment.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice. Your money, your decision.
Paradis Labs: @babybluecream The real asymmetry to watch is if $POET lands a Tier-1 hyperscaler before the next dilutive raise?
If yes, the short squeeze potential on a ~$1B float name could be violent.
If no, I think the stock drifts toward cash value while longs rotate into $LITE, $MRVL, or $AAOI on
Show More
THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN — COMPLETE MAP
I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish.
Every layer. Every sector.
Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments.
Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines):
$ASML
$AMAT
$LRCX
$TSEM
Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM
$GFS
$INTC
Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA
$AVGO
$AMD
$MRVL
Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU
$WDC
Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects:
$COHR
$LITE
$AAOI
$POET
$MTSI
$ALMU
Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI):
$IREN
$NBIS
$CIFR
$WULF
$EQIX
$RKLB
$ASTS
$PL
Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface):
$CRWD
$PANW
$ZS
$NET
$S
$FTNT
Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up):
$PATH
$PLTR
$NOW
$HIMS
$DDOG
$SNOW
$MDB
$SOFI
Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational):
$ONDS
$OSS
$RKLB
$AMPX
$LHX
$RTX
$NOC
$PNG.V
Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow.
Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me.
The market won't be red forever.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish.
Every layer. Every sector.
Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments.
Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines):
$ASML
$AMAT
$LRCX
$TSEM
Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM
$GFS
$INTC
Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA
$AVGO
$AMD
$MRVL
Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU
$WDC
Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects:
$COHR
$LITE
$AAOI
$POET
$MTSI
$ALMU
Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI):
$IREN
$NBIS
$CIFR
$WULF
$EQIX
$RKLB
$ASTS
$PL
Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface):
$CRWD
$PANW
$ZS
$NET
$S
$FTNT
Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up):
$PATH
$PLTR
$NOW
$HIMS
$DDOG
$SNOW
$MDB
$SOFI
Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational):
$ONDS
$OSS
$RKLB
$AMPX
$LHX
$RTX
$NOC
$PNG.V
Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow.
Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me.
The market won't be red forever.
-BP
Please note: This is not financial advice.
Show More
I've initiated 2 new long-term positions. Here's why:
Both are long-term. Both are sitting at inflection points the market hasn't priced in yet.
1) $KRKNF - Kraken Robotics:
I've been in $KRKNF before. I'm back. Here's why this is the last entry point before the story fully reprices:
The Moat Nobody Can Replicate:
Kraken's SeaPower batteries are pressure-tolerant to 6,000 meters. There is no commercially viable alternative at this depth and energy density. Battery makers globally are focused on EVs. Nobody is competing with Kraken in the deep. You can't just "build a competitor" to a decade of operational data and a polymer-based sealing system competitors still can't figure out how to copy.
The Anduril Connection:
Every Ghost Shark Anduril delivers comes with $2M+ of Kraken batteries and sonar embedded in it. Not as optional payload. Embedded. Anduril just won a $1.12B contract from the Australian Navy. The US Navy wants 10x whatever Australia buys. That's just the way it goes.
And militaries don't switch battery suppliers mid-contract. Ever. The switching cost is infinite once you're embedded in a certified defense platform.
Battery Production Going Live:
Kraken has been capacity-constrained. Their current plants max out at $36M USD in battery revenue. The new Nova Scotia facility, 60,000 sqft, triples that. When it goes live in 2026, Kraken can produce ~$150-200M annually in SeaPower batteries alone. Demand is already outstripping supply. A $34M battery order (their largest ever) just landed from three clients. They are sold out before the new plant even opens.
The OTC Problem - and the Opportunity:
$KRKNF only trades on a handful of platforms right now because it's OTC. Most retail brokerages, most institutions, they can't buy it or won't. A TSX-to-Nasdaq uplisting would unlock institutional mandates and the kind of liquidity that forces a full re-rating.
That uplisting is coming.
Before that happens? This is the window.
The Technicals:
$KRKNF just broke through a major resistance level at $9.00 on a +8.82% daily move. Price is trading well above all four major moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200-day) with all of them fanning out, a textbook sign of a healthy long-term uptrend.
RSI at 66 means momentum is strong but not overbought. There's still fuel in the tank.
The Volume Profile tells the deeper story: the strongest support floor sits at $8.43–$8.50, where the most shares have changed hands. Above $9.25, there's a low-volume void, blue sky territory where price can move fast with very little overhead resistance.
The breakout yesterday to ATH came on 1.41M shares, slightly below the 1.8M daily average. That's actually bullish, steady accumulation rather than a frenzied pump.
Key levels:
$10.00 is the first psychological target. $9.00 is immediate support. $8.36 (20-day SMA) is the line you don't want to see broken.
2) $AMPX - Amprius Technologies
The drone market is estimated to go from $40B to $400B on a globally scale.
Every drone needs a battery. Most batteries are heavy, short range, and built in China.
Amprius builds something different.
The Moat:
Silicon nanowire anode technology. 450-500 Wh/kg energy density. Third-party validated. No commercial equivalent exists. Their batteries let drones fly 90% longer than conventional cells. In defense applications, that's not a nice-to-have. That's the difference between mission success and mission failure.
Nokia selected Amprius to power their next-generation drone systems. The US Army is a customer. They just won a $35M unmanned aerial systems order. Gross margins flipped from -65% in Q3 2024 to +15% in Q3 2025 as revenue scaled. Management says $10M more in quarterly revenue pushes them into positive EBITDA.
The NDAA Tailwind:
New domestic sourcing rules for defense applications. Amprius just partnered with Nanotech Energy to create the first US-based manufacturing pathway for their silicon-anode cells. This is the thing bears have been pointing at for two years, "but they manufacture in Asia."
That concern is now being systematically addressed while the defense order pipeline accelerates.
Needham and Northland both initiated with Buy and $20 price targets. That's 70%+ upside from current levels. Revenue is forecast to grow 640% from 2024 to 2026.
At $11.59, the market hasn't caught up to what's building here.
The Technicals:
$AMPX is setting up a "golden cross", the 20-day SMA ($11.34) just crossed above the 50-day SMA ($11.21). That's a classic medium-term trend reversal signal. RSI at 56 is in the sweet spot: momentum building, nowhere near overbought. Plenty of room for expansion.
The Volume Profile shows massive congestion and support between $10.40–$11.30. Above $11.75, there's a low-volume void, price can slice through to $12–$13 quickly if buyers stay aggressive. Yesterdays volume of 6.9M shares nearly matched the daily average, confirming this isn't a fluke. Institutional interest is returning.
The "elephant in the room":
Q4 2025 earnings drop Thursday, March 5. Analysts targeting $16 if they show production scaling. The setup is a pre-earnings drift to $12.50–$13.00 followed by a potential breakout if guidance confirms the ramp.
Key levels:
$12.00 is the psychological barrier to clear. $11.21–$11.34 SMA cluster is the must-hold floor. $10.44 (200-day SMA) is the line that ends the recovery thesis.
Two very different companies. One moat underwater. One in the air.
Both sitting at entry points before their next rerating event.
3) Im stilling sitting on around 11-13% cash. Ready to buy the dip on existing positions; $IREN $NBIS $RKLB $ONDS and looking for an entry in potential $ALMU.
-BP
Note. This is NOT financial advice.
Both are long-term. Both are sitting at inflection points the market hasn't priced in yet.
1) $KRKNF - Kraken Robotics:
I've been in $KRKNF before. I'm back. Here's why this is the last entry point before the story fully reprices:
The Moat Nobody Can Replicate:
Kraken's SeaPower batteries are pressure-tolerant to 6,000 meters. There is no commercially viable alternative at this depth and energy density. Battery makers globally are focused on EVs. Nobody is competing with Kraken in the deep. You can't just "build a competitor" to a decade of operational data and a polymer-based sealing system competitors still can't figure out how to copy.
The Anduril Connection:
Every Ghost Shark Anduril delivers comes with $2M+ of Kraken batteries and sonar embedded in it. Not as optional payload. Embedded. Anduril just won a $1.12B contract from the Australian Navy. The US Navy wants 10x whatever Australia buys. That's just the way it goes.
And militaries don't switch battery suppliers mid-contract. Ever. The switching cost is infinite once you're embedded in a certified defense platform.
Battery Production Going Live:
Kraken has been capacity-constrained. Their current plants max out at $36M USD in battery revenue. The new Nova Scotia facility, 60,000 sqft, triples that. When it goes live in 2026, Kraken can produce ~$150-200M annually in SeaPower batteries alone. Demand is already outstripping supply. A $34M battery order (their largest ever) just landed from three clients. They are sold out before the new plant even opens.
The OTC Problem - and the Opportunity:
$KRKNF only trades on a handful of platforms right now because it's OTC. Most retail brokerages, most institutions, they can't buy it or won't. A TSX-to-Nasdaq uplisting would unlock institutional mandates and the kind of liquidity that forces a full re-rating.
That uplisting is coming.
Before that happens? This is the window.
The Technicals:
$KRKNF just broke through a major resistance level at $9.00 on a +8.82% daily move. Price is trading well above all four major moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200-day) with all of them fanning out, a textbook sign of a healthy long-term uptrend.
RSI at 66 means momentum is strong but not overbought. There's still fuel in the tank.
The Volume Profile tells the deeper story: the strongest support floor sits at $8.43–$8.50, where the most shares have changed hands. Above $9.25, there's a low-volume void, blue sky territory where price can move fast with very little overhead resistance.
The breakout yesterday to ATH came on 1.41M shares, slightly below the 1.8M daily average. That's actually bullish, steady accumulation rather than a frenzied pump.
Key levels:
$10.00 is the first psychological target. $9.00 is immediate support. $8.36 (20-day SMA) is the line you don't want to see broken.
2) $AMPX - Amprius Technologies
The drone market is estimated to go from $40B to $400B on a globally scale.
Every drone needs a battery. Most batteries are heavy, short range, and built in China.
Amprius builds something different.
The Moat:
Silicon nanowire anode technology. 450-500 Wh/kg energy density. Third-party validated. No commercial equivalent exists. Their batteries let drones fly 90% longer than conventional cells. In defense applications, that's not a nice-to-have. That's the difference between mission success and mission failure.
Nokia selected Amprius to power their next-generation drone systems. The US Army is a customer. They just won a $35M unmanned aerial systems order. Gross margins flipped from -65% in Q3 2024 to +15% in Q3 2025 as revenue scaled. Management says $10M more in quarterly revenue pushes them into positive EBITDA.
The NDAA Tailwind:
New domestic sourcing rules for defense applications. Amprius just partnered with Nanotech Energy to create the first US-based manufacturing pathway for their silicon-anode cells. This is the thing bears have been pointing at for two years, "but they manufacture in Asia."
That concern is now being systematically addressed while the defense order pipeline accelerates.
Needham and Northland both initiated with Buy and $20 price targets. That's 70%+ upside from current levels. Revenue is forecast to grow 640% from 2024 to 2026.
At $11.59, the market hasn't caught up to what's building here.
The Technicals:
$AMPX is setting up a "golden cross", the 20-day SMA ($11.34) just crossed above the 50-day SMA ($11.21). That's a classic medium-term trend reversal signal. RSI at 56 is in the sweet spot: momentum building, nowhere near overbought. Plenty of room for expansion.
The Volume Profile shows massive congestion and support between $10.40–$11.30. Above $11.75, there's a low-volume void, price can slice through to $12–$13 quickly if buyers stay aggressive. Yesterdays volume of 6.9M shares nearly matched the daily average, confirming this isn't a fluke. Institutional interest is returning.
The "elephant in the room":
Q4 2025 earnings drop Thursday, March 5. Analysts targeting $16 if they show production scaling. The setup is a pre-earnings drift to $12.50–$13.00 followed by a potential breakout if guidance confirms the ramp.
Key levels:
$12.00 is the psychological barrier to clear. $11.21–$11.34 SMA cluster is the must-hold floor. $10.44 (200-day SMA) is the line that ends the recovery thesis.
Two very different companies. One moat underwater. One in the air.
Both sitting at entry points before their next rerating event.
3) Im stilling sitting on around 11-13% cash. Ready to buy the dip on existing positions; $IREN $NBIS $RKLB $ONDS and looking for an entry in potential $ALMU.
-BP
Note. This is NOT financial advice.
Show More
Added 2 new stocks to my long-term portfolio today.
4-5% on each allocation.
One stocks I’ve had before.
One is a complete new add.
Which two do you think I added.
$IBRX
$ALMU
$AMPX
$KRKNF
Added 2. Still got 2 on watchlist.
4-5% on each allocation.
One stocks I’ve had before.
One is a complete new add.
Which two do you think I added.
$IBRX
$ALMU
$AMPX
$KRKNF
Added 2. Still got 2 on watchlist.
Why $ALMU, $POET, and $AAOI are all flying today and is the NEW bottleneck:
Everyone’s asking why photonics is melting up.
Let me connect the dots.
Nvidia just committed $2 BILLION each into Lumentum and Coherent to secure the AI photonics supply chain.
Read that again.
$NVDA isn’t betting on more GPUs. They’re betting on the pipe that carries the data BETWEEN the GPUs.
Here’s what Wall Street is just now figuring out:
1. You can stack 100,000 H100s in a rack
2. But if the optical interconnects can’t move data fast enough, your compute is bottlenecked
3. 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers are the NEW chokepoint
$AAOI isn’t up 22% on hype. It’s up 22% because they just beat Q4 earnings AND guided Q1 2026 above estimates.
Management is calling $1B+ revenue in 2026 as 800G/1.6T production scales. This is revenue acceleration meeting an Nvidia-validated sector.
$POET is up 12% because their optical interposer solves the ASSEMBLY bottleneck everyone’s ignoring. Scaling 1.6T/3.2T transceivers isn’t just a chip problem, it’s a packaging problem.
$POET owns that solution. Revenue ramp expected H2 2026.
$ALMU is the asymmetric micro-cap play. No direct Nvidia contract. But they’re integrating III-V materials on silicon for AI sensing and quantum applications, exactly the architecture photonics is scaling toward. $38.6M cash. DoD-compliant domestic production. Nasdaq flagged it as high upside.
When $NVDA writes a $4B check into your sector, the whole neighborhood moves.
The pattern here is identical to what happened in power infrastructure.
Everyone was buying GPUs.
Then they realized you can’t run GPUs without power.
Now everyone’s buying compute. And they’re realizing you can’t scale compute without photonics.
Bandwidth is the NEW bottleneck.
> $AAOI is the revenue play.
> $POET is the infrastructure play.
> $ALMU is the asymmetric lottery ticket.
Three different risk profiles.
One macro thesis.
Photonics is the next layer of the AI buildout.
And $NVDA just told you exactly where they’re putting their money.
I was planning to take a small position in $POET today. But I wasn’t fast enough.
Congrats to everyone that made it.
I’ll be monitoring, watching over, and looking for a pullback.
-BP
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Everyone’s asking why photonics is melting up.
Let me connect the dots.
Nvidia just committed $2 BILLION each into Lumentum and Coherent to secure the AI photonics supply chain.
Read that again.
$NVDA isn’t betting on more GPUs. They’re betting on the pipe that carries the data BETWEEN the GPUs.
Here’s what Wall Street is just now figuring out:
1. You can stack 100,000 H100s in a rack
2. But if the optical interconnects can’t move data fast enough, your compute is bottlenecked
3. 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers are the NEW chokepoint
$AAOI isn’t up 22% on hype. It’s up 22% because they just beat Q4 earnings AND guided Q1 2026 above estimates.
Management is calling $1B+ revenue in 2026 as 800G/1.6T production scales. This is revenue acceleration meeting an Nvidia-validated sector.
$POET is up 12% because their optical interposer solves the ASSEMBLY bottleneck everyone’s ignoring. Scaling 1.6T/3.2T transceivers isn’t just a chip problem, it’s a packaging problem.
$POET owns that solution. Revenue ramp expected H2 2026.
$ALMU is the asymmetric micro-cap play. No direct Nvidia contract. But they’re integrating III-V materials on silicon for AI sensing and quantum applications, exactly the architecture photonics is scaling toward. $38.6M cash. DoD-compliant domestic production. Nasdaq flagged it as high upside.
When $NVDA writes a $4B check into your sector, the whole neighborhood moves.
The pattern here is identical to what happened in power infrastructure.
Everyone was buying GPUs.
Then they realized you can’t run GPUs without power.
Now everyone’s buying compute. And they’re realizing you can’t scale compute without photonics.
Bandwidth is the NEW bottleneck.
> $AAOI is the revenue play.
> $POET is the infrastructure play.
> $ALMU is the asymmetric lottery ticket.
Three different risk profiles.
One macro thesis.
Photonics is the next layer of the AI buildout.
And $NVDA just told you exactly where they’re putting their money.
I was planning to take a small position in $POET today. But I wasn’t fast enough.
Congrats to everyone that made it.
I’ll be monitoring, watching over, and looking for a pullback.
-BP
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Show More
RT Black Panther Capital
Why $ALMU, $POET, and $AAOI are all flying today and is the NEW bottleneck:
Everyone’s asking why photonics is melting up.
Let me connect the dots.
Nvidia just committed $2 BILLION each into Lumentum and Coherent to secure the AI photonics supply chain.
Read that again.
$NVDA isn’t betting on more GPUs. They’re betting on the pipe that carries the data BETWEEN the GPUs.
Here’s what Wall Street is just now figuring out:
1. You can stack 100,000 H100s in a rack
2. But if the optical interconnects can’t move data fast enough, your compute is bottlenecked
3. 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers are the NEW chokepoint
$AAOI isn’t up 22% on hype. It’s up 22% because they just beat Q4 earnings AND guided Q1 2026 above estimates.
Management is calling $1B+ revenue in 2026 as 800G/1.6T production scales. This is revenue acceleration meeting an Nvidia-validated sector.
$POET is up 12% because their optical interposer solves the ASSEMBLY bottleneck everyone’s ignoring. Scaling 1.6T/3.2T transceivers isn’t just a chip problem, it’s a packaging problem.
$POET owns that solution. Revenue ramp expected H2 2026.
$ALMU is the asymmetric micro-cap play. No direct Nvidia contract. But they’re integrating III-V materials on silicon for AI sensing and quantum applications, exactly the architecture photonics is scaling toward. $38.6M cash. DoD-compliant domestic production. Nasdaq flagged it as high upside.
When $NVDA writes a $4B check into your sector, the whole neighborhood moves.
The pattern here is identical to what happened in power infrastructure.
Everyone was buying GPUs.
Then they realized you can’t run GPUs without power.
Now everyone’s buying compute. And they’re realizing you can’t scale compute without photonics.
Bandwidth is the NEW bottleneck.
> $AAOI is the revenue play.
> $POET is the infrastructure play.
> $ALMU is the asymmetric lottery ticket.
Three different risk profiles.
One macro thesis.
Photonics is the next layer of the AI buildout.
And $NVDA just told you exactly where they’re putting their money.
I was planning to take a small position in $POET today. But I wasn’t fast enough.
Congrats to everyone that made it.
I’ll be monitoring, watching over, and looking for a pullback.
-BP
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
Why $ALMU, $POET, and $AAOI are all flying today and is the NEW bottleneck:
Everyone’s asking why photonics is melting up.
Let me connect the dots.
Nvidia just committed $2 BILLION each into Lumentum and Coherent to secure the AI photonics supply chain.
Read that again.
$NVDA isn’t betting on more GPUs. They’re betting on the pipe that carries the data BETWEEN the GPUs.
Here’s what Wall Street is just now figuring out:
1. You can stack 100,000 H100s in a rack
2. But if the optical interconnects can’t move data fast enough, your compute is bottlenecked
3. 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers are the NEW chokepoint
$AAOI isn’t up 22% on hype. It’s up 22% because they just beat Q4 earnings AND guided Q1 2026 above estimates.
Management is calling $1B+ revenue in 2026 as 800G/1.6T production scales. This is revenue acceleration meeting an Nvidia-validated sector.
$POET is up 12% because their optical interposer solves the ASSEMBLY bottleneck everyone’s ignoring. Scaling 1.6T/3.2T transceivers isn’t just a chip problem, it’s a packaging problem.
$POET owns that solution. Revenue ramp expected H2 2026.
$ALMU is the asymmetric micro-cap play. No direct Nvidia contract. But they’re integrating III-V materials on silicon for AI sensing and quantum applications, exactly the architecture photonics is scaling toward. $38.6M cash. DoD-compliant domestic production. Nasdaq flagged it as high upside.
When $NVDA writes a $4B check into your sector, the whole neighborhood moves.
The pattern here is identical to what happened in power infrastructure.
Everyone was buying GPUs.
Then they realized you can’t run GPUs without power.
Now everyone’s buying compute. And they’re realizing you can’t scale compute without photonics.
Bandwidth is the NEW bottleneck.
> $AAOI is the revenue play.
> $POET is the infrastructure play.
> $ALMU is the asymmetric lottery ticket.
Three different risk profiles.
One macro thesis.
Photonics is the next layer of the AI buildout.
And $NVDA just told you exactly where they’re putting their money.
I was planning to take a small position in $POET today. But I wasn’t fast enough.
Congrats to everyone that made it.
I’ll be monitoring, watching over, and looking for a pullback.
-BP
Note: This is NOT financial advice.
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In 2049 our kids and grandchildren will look back at 2026 and say:
“Amazing you lived through those times!”
“I wish it was possible to go back and invest in $IREN $NBIS $RKLB $ONDS $AMPX, $ALMU again.”
This is a timestamp. A reminder.
That the world will continue to evolve.
Sometimes, NEW inventions change how the world functions.
This is one of them. And you get to live through it. Experience it.
You get to benefit from it.
-BP
Note. This is not financial advice.
“Amazing you lived through those times!”
“I wish it was possible to go back and invest in $IREN $NBIS $RKLB $ONDS $AMPX, $ALMU again.”
This is a timestamp. A reminder.
That the world will continue to evolve.
Sometimes, NEW inventions change how the world functions.
This is one of them. And you get to live through it. Experience it.
You get to benefit from it.
-BP
Note. This is not financial advice.
Show More
