Wall Street talks about the hyperscalers: $AMZN, $GOOG, $META, $MSFT. That is where the headlines are.

But the money flows through the supply chain. Capex is tracking above $1 trillion this year.

That is six times the level of 2022

Here is the full stack, sector by sector, of who actually gets paid:

Power Infrastructure:
$IREN, $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF

The compute layer requires power first. These are the companies building and owning the megawatt-scale facilities that hyperscalers cannot build fast enough themselves.

Optical Networking:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, $POET

GPU clusters are useless without the interconnects that move data between them at 800G and 1.6T speeds. This sector is capacity-constrained and just had its export inputs tightened by China this week.

Space & Infrastructure:
$RKLB, $ASTS, $PL, $SATL, $FLY, $ONDS, $KTOS

Golden Dome. Autonomous systems. Satellite constellations. The government is funding the next generation of distributed compute and surveillance infrastructure from orbit.

Critical Materials:
$AXTI, $ALMU

The raw substrate layer that the entire photonics stack sits on. Severely undersupplied. Almost zero retail coverage.

Launch & Deployment:
$RKLB, $ASTS

Getting infrastructure into orbit requires reliable, affordable launch. One company owns this market. The public comp is scaling fast.

Every sector on this list has either hyperscaler contract backing, government funding, or a physical supply constraint that makes demand inelastic.

Save this for later.

-BP

Please note this is not financial advice.

$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE have already run 150-250% and trade at extreme multiples.

The UPSTREAM play is where the undiscovered leverage sits.

Here is what most people are missing in the photonics chain:

Transceiver makers:
$AAOI, $COHR, $LITE, visible, crowded, already priced for growth.

Laser / substrate suppliers:
$COHR InP fabs (Texas + Sweden), $AXTI (35% of global InP substrate supply)

Emerging platform plays:
$POET (optical interposer, integrates lasers and electronics on one chip, Foxconn-backed). $ALMU (Aeluma, compound semiconductor materials, defense + photonics)

Critical materials: InP wafer demand exceeds supply by 70%. China tightened export controls this week.

The companies sitting closest to the constraint are not the ones that already ran. The supply chain analysis points to what has not moved yet. The companies that control the material chokepoint tend to reprice when the downstream bottleneck becomes undeniable.

We are close to that moment.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice. Your money, your decision.

Paradis Labs: @babybluecream The real asymmetry to watch is if $POET lands a Tier-1 hyperscaler before the next dilutive raise?

If yes, the short squeeze potential on a ~$1B float name could be violent.

If no, I think the stock drifts toward cash value while longs rotate into $LITE, $MRVL, or $AAOI on

THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN — COMPLETE MAP

I've spent a few hours mapping the entire AI supply chain. Hyperscalers are spending $750 billion. These are the 42 companies building, powering, and deploying AI from start to finish.

Every layer. Every sector.

Bookmark it. Feel free to add companies in the comments.

Layer 1: Chip Equipment (the machines that build the machines):
$ASML
$AMAT
$LRCX
$TSEM

Layer 2: Foundry & Fabrication (where chips are born): $TSM
$GFS
$INTC

Layer 3: GPU / ASIC / CPU (the AI compute engines): $NVDA
$AVGO
$AMD
$MRVL

Layer 4: Memory & HBM (the bandwidth bottleneck): $MU
$WDC

Layer 5: Photonics & Optical Interconnects:
$COHR
$LITE
$AAOI
$POET
$MTSI
$ALMU

Layer 6: Data Center + Space (the physical home of AI):
$IREN
$NBIS
$CIFR
$WULF
$EQIX
$RKLB
$ASTS
$PL

Layer 7: Cybersecurity (every new AI system is a new attack surface):
$CRWD
$PANW
$ZS
$NET
$S
$FTNT

Layer 8: AI Software & Automation (where the ROI shows up):
$PATH
$PLTR
$NOW
$HIMS
$DDOG
$SNOW
$MDB
$SOFI

Layer 9: Defense & End-Use (where AI becomes operational):
$ONDS
$OSS
$RKLB
$AMPX
$LHX
$RTX
$NOC
$PNG.V

Every company on this list has either government budgets, hyperscaler contracts, or can potentially benefit from the AI build it somehow.

Save this. And if you found this valuable, you should follow me.

The market won't be red forever.

-BP

Please note: This is not financial advice.

I've initiated 2 new long-term positions. Here's why:

Both are long-term. Both are sitting at inflection points the market hasn't priced in yet.

1) $KRKNF - Kraken Robotics:

I've been in $KRKNF before. I'm back. Here's why this is the last entry point before the story fully reprices:

The Moat Nobody Can Replicate:

Kraken's SeaPower batteries are pressure-tolerant to 6,000 meters. There is no commercially viable alternative at this depth and energy density. Battery makers globally are focused on EVs. Nobody is competing with Kraken in the deep. You can't just "build a competitor" to a decade of operational data and a polymer-based sealing system competitors still can't figure out how to copy.

The Anduril Connection:

Every Ghost Shark Anduril delivers comes with $2M+ of Kraken batteries and sonar embedded in it. Not as optional payload. Embedded. Anduril just won a $1.12B contract from the Australian Navy. The US Navy wants 10x whatever Australia buys. That's just the way it goes.

And militaries don't switch battery suppliers mid-contract. Ever. The switching cost is infinite once you're embedded in a certified defense platform.

Battery Production Going Live:

Kraken has been capacity-constrained. Their current plants max out at $36M USD in battery revenue. The new Nova Scotia facility, 60,000 sqft, triples that. When it goes live in 2026, Kraken can produce ~$150-200M annually in SeaPower batteries alone. Demand is already outstripping supply. A $34M battery order (their largest ever) just landed from three clients. They are sold out before the new plant even opens.

The OTC Problem - and the Opportunity:

$KRKNF only trades on a handful of platforms right now because it's OTC. Most retail brokerages, most institutions, they can't buy it or won't. A TSX-to-Nasdaq uplisting would unlock institutional mandates and the kind of liquidity that forces a full re-rating.
That uplisting is coming.

Before that happens? This is the window.

The Technicals:

$KRKNF just broke through a major resistance level at $9.00 on a +8.82% daily move. Price is trading well above all four major moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200-day) with all of them fanning out, a textbook sign of a healthy long-term uptrend.

RSI at 66 means momentum is strong but not overbought. There's still fuel in the tank.

The Volume Profile tells the deeper story: the strongest support floor sits at $8.43–$8.50, where the most shares have changed hands. Above $9.25, there's a low-volume void, blue sky territory where price can move fast with very little overhead resistance.

The breakout yesterday to ATH came on 1.41M shares, slightly below the 1.8M daily average. That's actually bullish, steady accumulation rather than a frenzied pump.

Key levels:

$10.00 is the first psychological target. $9.00 is immediate support. $8.36 (20-day SMA) is the line you don't want to see broken.

2) $AMPX - Amprius Technologies

The drone market is estimated to go from $40B to $400B on a globally scale.

Every drone needs a battery. Most batteries are heavy, short range, and built in China.

Amprius builds something different.

The Moat:

Silicon nanowire anode technology. 450-500 Wh/kg energy density. Third-party validated. No commercial equivalent exists. Their batteries let drones fly 90% longer than conventional cells. In defense applications, that's not a nice-to-have. That's the difference between mission success and mission failure.

Nokia selected Amprius to power their next-generation drone systems. The US Army is a customer. They just won a $35M unmanned aerial systems order. Gross margins flipped from -65% in Q3 2024 to +15% in Q3 2025 as revenue scaled. Management says $10M more in quarterly revenue pushes them into positive EBITDA.

The NDAA Tailwind:

New domestic sourcing rules for defense applications. Amprius just partnered with Nanotech Energy to create the first US-based manufacturing pathway for their silicon-anode cells. This is the thing bears have been pointing at for two years, "but they manufacture in Asia."

That concern is now being systematically addressed while the defense order pipeline accelerates.

Needham and Northland both initiated with Buy and $20 price targets. That's 70%+ upside from current levels. Revenue is forecast to grow 640% from 2024 to 2026.

At $11.59, the market hasn't caught up to what's building here.

The Technicals:

$AMPX is setting up a "golden cross", the 20-day SMA ($11.34) just crossed above the 50-day SMA ($11.21). That's a classic medium-term trend reversal signal. RSI at 56 is in the sweet spot: momentum building, nowhere near overbought. Plenty of room for expansion.

The Volume Profile shows massive congestion and support between $10.40–$11.30. Above $11.75, there's a low-volume void, price can slice through to $12–$13 quickly if buyers stay aggressive. Yesterdays volume of 6.9M shares nearly matched the daily average, confirming this isn't a fluke. Institutional interest is returning.

The "elephant in the room":

Q4 2025 earnings drop Thursday, March 5. Analysts targeting $16 if they show production scaling. The setup is a pre-earnings drift to $12.50–$13.00 followed by a potential breakout if guidance confirms the ramp.

Key levels:

$12.00 is the psychological barrier to clear. $11.21–$11.34 SMA cluster is the must-hold floor. $10.44 (200-day SMA) is the line that ends the recovery thesis.

Two very different companies. One moat underwater. One in the air.

Both sitting at entry points before their next rerating event.

3) Im stilling sitting on around 11-13% cash. Ready to buy the dip on existing positions; $IREN $NBIS $RKLB $ONDS and looking for an entry in potential $ALMU.

-BP

Note. This is NOT financial advice.

Why $ALMU, $POET, and $AAOI are all flying today and is the NEW bottleneck:

Everyone’s asking why photonics is melting up.

Let me connect the dots.

Nvidia just committed $2 BILLION each into Lumentum and Coherent to secure the AI photonics supply chain.

Read that again.

$NVDA isn’t betting on more GPUs. They’re betting on the pipe that carries the data BETWEEN the GPUs.

Here’s what Wall Street is just now figuring out:

1. You can stack 100,000 H100s in a rack

2. But if the optical interconnects can’t move data fast enough, your compute is bottlenecked

3. 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers are the NEW chokepoint

$AAOI isn’t up 22% on hype. It’s up 22% because they just beat Q4 earnings AND guided Q1 2026 above estimates.

Management is calling $1B+ revenue in 2026 as 800G/1.6T production scales. This is revenue acceleration meeting an Nvidia-validated sector.

$POET is up 12% because their optical interposer solves the ASSEMBLY bottleneck everyone’s ignoring. Scaling 1.6T/3.2T transceivers isn’t just a chip problem, it’s a packaging problem.

$POET owns that solution. Revenue ramp expected H2 2026.

$ALMU is the asymmetric micro-cap play. No direct Nvidia contract. But they’re integrating III-V materials on silicon for AI sensing and quantum applications, exactly the architecture photonics is scaling toward. $38.6M cash. DoD-compliant domestic production. Nasdaq flagged it as high upside.

When $NVDA writes a $4B check into your sector, the whole neighborhood moves.
The pattern here is identical to what happened in power infrastructure.
Everyone was buying GPUs.

Then they realized you can’t run GPUs without power.

Now everyone’s buying compute. And they’re realizing you can’t scale compute without photonics.

Bandwidth is the NEW bottleneck.

> $AAOI is the revenue play.
> $POET is the infrastructure play.
> $ALMU is the asymmetric lottery ticket.

Three different risk profiles.
One macro thesis.

Photonics is the next layer of the AI buildout.

And $NVDA just told you exactly where they’re putting their money.

I was planning to take a small position in $POET today. But I wasn’t fast enough.

Congrats to everyone that made it.

I’ll be monitoring, watching over, and looking for a pullback.

-BP

Note: This is NOT financial advice.

RT Black Panther Capital
Why $ALMU, $POET, and $AAOI are all flying today and is the NEW bottleneck:

Everyone’s asking why photonics is melting up.

Let me connect the dots.

Nvidia just committed $2 BILLION each into Lumentum and Coherent to secure the AI photonics supply chain.

Read that again.

$NVDA isn’t betting on more GPUs. They’re betting on the pipe that carries the data BETWEEN the GPUs.

Here’s what Wall Street is just now figuring out:

1. You can stack 100,000 H100s in a rack

2. But if the optical interconnects can’t move data fast enough, your compute is bottlenecked

3. 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers are the NEW chokepoint

$AAOI isn’t up 22% on hype. It’s up 22% because they just beat Q4 earnings AND guided Q1 2026 above estimates.

Management is calling $1B+ revenue in 2026 as 800G/1.6T production scales. This is revenue acceleration meeting an Nvidia-validated sector.

$POET is up 12% because their optical interposer solves the ASSEMBLY bottleneck everyone’s ignoring. Scaling 1.6T/3.2T transceivers isn’t just a chip problem, it’s a packaging problem.

$POET owns that solution. Revenue ramp expected H2 2026.

$ALMU is the asymmetric micro-cap play. No direct Nvidia contract. But they’re integrating III-V materials on silicon for AI sensing and quantum applications, exactly the architecture photonics is scaling toward. $38.6M cash. DoD-compliant domestic production. Nasdaq flagged it as high upside.

When $NVDA writes a $4B check into your sector, the whole neighborhood moves.
The pattern here is identical to what happened in power infrastructure.
Everyone was buying GPUs.

Then they realized you can’t run GPUs without power.

Now everyone’s buying compute. And they’re realizing you can’t scale compute without photonics.

Bandwidth is the NEW bottleneck.

> $AAOI is the revenue play.
> $POET is the infrastructure play.
> $ALMU is the asymmetric lottery ticket.

Three different risk profiles.
One macro thesis.

Photonics is the next layer of the AI buildout.

And $NVDA just told you exactly where they’re putting their money.

I was planning to take a small position in $POET today. But I wasn’t fast enough.

Congrats to everyone that made it.

I’ll be monitoring, watching over, and looking for a pullback.

-BP

Note: This is NOT financial advice.

In 2049 our kids and grandchildren will look back at 2026 and say:

“Amazing you lived through those times!”

“I wish it was possible to go back and invest in $IREN $NBIS $RKLB $ONDS $AMPX, $ALMU again.”

This is a timestamp. A reminder.

That the world will continue to evolve.

Sometimes, NEW inventions change how the world functions.

This is one of them. And you get to live through it. Experience it.

You get to benefit from it.

-BP

Note. This is not financial advice.

Ray Dalio just dropped the MOST IMPORTANT macro framework for understanding what's happening right now.

(THIS IS HOW TO POSITION!)

And most people are completely missing it.

At the Munich Security Conference, world leaders officially declared the post-1945 order DEAD.

Not "at risk."

Not "under pressure."

Dead.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: "The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists."

French President Macron: "Europe's security structures are gone. Prepare for war."

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: "We're in a "new geopolitics era" because the "old world" is gone."

This isn't political theater. This is Stage 6 of Dalio's Big Cycle; the period where there are no rules, might is right, and great powers clash.

Here's what nobody's connecting:

The International Order Follows the Law of the Jungle:

Dalio makes this crystal clear: International relations aren't governed by law. They're governed by power.

The UN doesn't matter when individual countries have more power than the collective.

When disputes happen between powerful nations, they don't get lawyers. They threaten each other and either reach agreements or fight.

There are five types of wars between nations:

1. Trade/economic wars
2. Technology wars
3. Geopolitical wars
4. Capital wars
5. Military wars

We're already in the first four with China. The question is whether we escalate to #5.

The Greatest Risk Is When Powers Are Equal:

Dalio's principle:

The greatest risk of military war is when both parties have:

1) Comparable military power and
2) Irreconcilable existential differences.

Sound familiar?

US vs China over Taiwan checks both boxes.

We're at the exact inflection point where neither side has clear dominance and both have red lines they won't compromise.

This is the prisoner's dilemma at scale.

The Cycle Is Playing Out Exactly Like the 1930s:

Dalio walks through the entire playbook:

> Economic depression → internal wealth conflicts
> Countries turn to populist, autocratic, nationalistic leaders
> Protectionist policies (tariffs) to protect domestic jobs
> Economic wars escalate for 10 years before hot wars begin
> Resource competition intensifies (then it was oil, now it's chips and rare earths)

In the 1930s, Germany and Japan went broke, turned fascist, and decided seizing resources by force was more cost-effective than trading.

Japan invaded Manchuria for resources in 1931.

The US imposed sanctions and oil embargoes in 1941.

Pearl Harbor happened six months later.

Before Shooting Wars, There Are Economic Wars:

The US froze Japanese assets, closed the Panama Canal to their ships, and embargoed 80% of their oil.

Japan calculated they'd run out of oil in two years.

So they attacked.

Today's playbook:

> Asset freezes/seizures (Iran, Russia)
> Blocking capital markets access (threatening China)
> Embargoes/blockades (semiconductors, critical minerals)

We're using the exact same tactics. Just with different targets.

The Winner? Whoever Can Outspend the Other

Dalio's principle: Financial strength to outspend rivals is the most important strength a country can have.

That's how the US beat the USSR in the Cold War. Spend enough in the right ways, and you don't need a shooting war.

But here's the problem:

$38 trillion national debt. $1 trillion/year in interest payments alone.

We're borrowing money to pay debt service while trying to outspend China in an AI/defense arms race.

China has $3+ trillion in reserves and a command economy that can redirect resources instantly.

The math is getting harder for us.

What Happens Next:

Dalio's framework says we're in Stage 6, great disorder arising from a period where there are no rules.

The post-1945 order that kept peace for 80 years is gone.

We're entering a period where power, not law, determines outcomes.

Economic wars are already here (trade, tech, capital, geopolitics).

The only question is whether they escalate to military conflict.

And based on Dalio's research across 500+ years of history:

When powers are roughly equal and differences are irreconcilable, wars happen.

The smart play is to negotiate win-win outcomes where both sides get what matters most without losing what matters most.

But stupid wars happen constantly because of:

> Prisoner's dilemma (strike first or get struck)
> Tit-for-tat escalation
> Perceived costs of backing down
> Fast decision making under pressure

How to Position for Stage 6:

Dalio's wartime playbook is explicit:

During wars, governments control everything. They determine what gets produced, what can be bought/sold, prices, wages, access to your own assets, and capital flows.

Stock markets get closed. Currencies become worthless between non-allied countries. Wealth gets redistributed forcibly through confiscation or peacefully through massive taxes and money printing.

His advice: "Sell out of all debt and buy gold because wars are financed by borrowing and printing money, which devalues debt and money."

But there's more nuance for 2026 - Own the Bottlenecks:

The US is entering an arms race where financial strength to outspend rivals determines the winner.

That means massive defense spending, AI infrastructure buildout, and securing critical supply chains.

Defense contractors with sole-source positioning; $KRKNF, $ONDS

Critical minerals the US doesn't control;
Tungsten $ALM, Indium $TECK, Antimony $UAMY

AI infrastructure that governments MUST build;
$IREN, $NBIS.

Domestic manufacturing alternatives to China:
$CPSH for AlSiC, $LPTH for Germanium.

Avoid Long-Duration Debt:

Dalio's clear: wars are financed by printing money and debt monetization.

Long-term bonds get destroyed. Debt and credit become worthless.

If you're in bonds, you're on the wrong side of history.

Real Assets Over Paper:

Gold. Commodities. Equity in companies that produce essential goods.

When governments need resources for war, they redirect them. They don't ask permission.

The companies that control physical bottlenecks (power, critical materials, defense systems) can't be bypassed.

Geographic Diversification:

Dalio notes that in wartime, capital controls get imposed. You can't move money out of the country.

Having assets in multiple jurisdictions matters. But choose carefully, you want to be in countries that will be on the winning side or stay neutral.

The Real Trade:

This isn't about timing the market.

It's about recognizing that the rules that governed investing for 80 years are gone.

We're entering a period where power determines outcomes, governments control resources, and wealth gets forcibly redistributed.

The winners will be those who own what governments need and can't easily confiscate or devalue.

The losers will be those holding paper promises in a world where promises don't matter anymore.

Position accordingly.

Note: This is NOT financial advice.

Ray Dalio: http://x.com/i/article/2022788012598341633